Tagged: Seahawks

09/04/2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Salutations Good People,

After many long months, I am back at my desk and getting ready to make my picks for the week. Last year, I had the goal of 170 wins during the season…. and I fell juuuuust short (169 wins). It really was just one bad week that I had last season that not only robbed me of my 170-win goal BUT robbed me of shattering it. That said, Week 1 is always a little dicey simply because I really only pay attention to a few teams, and so, Week 1, is my first opportunity to sit down and see what the rest of the League is offering. For those who didn’t follow my picks last year, I’m not a journalist and I am open with my biases; I’ll give my thoughts on the match-up where I feel inspired to, but, ultimately, I’m just picking who I think will win. Usually, I’m right — however, I don’t gamble so what does my accuracy really matter? It’s all for good fun.

Here are my picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Picks

I'm not comfortable with the pick, but I'm taking the Seahawks tonight. #GamesAlmostOn #FootballSeasonIsUponUs #Hooray

— Ryan Henley (@ryanhenley) September 5, 2014

Packers @ Seahawks –

We have gotten a fair dosing of the “Fail Mary” story in the past week, leading up to this game, but hopefully it is long past. This game is a tough one. “Fail Mary” aside, the Packers played well in Seattle the last time that they were up there; for it being the first game of the season, too, I reckon that everyone is healthy and ready to go (except for BJ Raji, but I hear that he may be more of a big name on the defense than a big factor… I don’t know, though; I don’t follow the Packers that closely). It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers (even if up against a great pass-defense) and now that he has a reliable running game, as well, there’s nothing in me that thinks that the Packers do not have a chance at winning this game. I think that they do have a chance. That said, the NFC West has had the Packers’ number as of late, especially in exploiting the Packers’ often-porous defense — most notably with my beloved 49ers and Colin Kaepernick: the Packer Killer. While I’m not comfortable with the pick, I’m going to go with the Seahawks at home, simply because I’d rather pick them and have them lose (and take the loss in my Picks) than I would picking the Packers and having them lose AND taking the loss in my Picks — then I’ve just screwed my night. At least this way, I’ll have some silver lining at the end of the night…. but I’m not confident on this pick. Seahawks over Packers.

Saints @ Falcons –

While I think that the Falcons will bounce back this year — sure, they may not have much of a running game and their defense is suspect, but they’ll have Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, and that has to be worth a few wins — I think that the Saints are going to win the division and also get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, on the NFC side of the coin. With Graham happy, Brees having some weapons (and, I believe, he is recovered from his abdominal strain by now), plus they have reinforced their defense, I think that they will win this game. I’m not sold on the Falcons whereas I am sold on the Saints. Saints over Falcons.

Vikings @ Rams –

I think that the beginning of this season is going to be tough sledding for the Rams. Losing Bradford like they did, when they did, and now having to build the offense around Shaun Hill is a bit of a challenge. Sure, they have a good running game but Hill is the wild card; I don’t know what to expect from him. Meanwhile, I see a lot of promise with the Vikings — I don’t think that they’ll make the playoffs this year but I think that they could turn some heads as the season goes along. I think that, despite the tough predicament the Rams are in, I’ll go with the Rams in this game simply because their defense is one of the best; quietly one of the best. They have a great pass-rush and if the Vikings are rolling with Cassel as their guy in Week 1, I like the Rams defense against him. Rams over Vikings.

Browns @ Steelers –

I’m going Steelers. Not because I have a lot of faith in the Steelers (even though Big Ben and Tomlin are due for a good season) but simply because Cleveland appears to be a circus right now; I have no faith in them. Which is exactly how I like it. (Side Note: I put a curse on the city of Cleveland some 7yrs ago; so far, so good. End Side Note.) Steelers over Browns.

Jags @ Eagles –

From the highlights that I saw from the preseason (as well as how they performed down the stretch last year), I think that the Jags may have a chance in the AFC this year. By “have a chance” I mean that I think that they can put together a respectable season; maybe not playoff-bound but I think that they could be good enough to be a spoiler team for other teams that are on the post-season bubble. That said, I think that the Eagles will win the NFC East this year (again) and I’ll take their fast-paced offense, at home, over the Jags. Eagles over Jags.

Raiders @ Jets –

The Raiders appear to be a mess. While the Jets may not be in a much better situation, I still think that they are better than the Raiders (with Smith or Vick) and, being at home, I am going to go with the Jets in this game. Jets over Raiders.

Bengals @ Ravens –

This could be a fun game. The Bengals, I think, have more talent than the Ravens — but the Bengals also tend to not perform well when I want them to, haha. I have more questions about the Ravens, though, than I do the Bengals. And so I’m going to ride with the Bengals in this game, with their defense, and that Andy Dalton usually performs well during the regular season….. but I’m not 100% confident on this pick. Bengals over Ravens.

Bills @ Bears –

I’m going to go with the Bears in this game simply because I haven’t heard anything about the Bills’ defense. Everything seems to be focused on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins (who may or may not be nursing a rib injury from the preseason). Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense could be pretty explosive this season, and I think that could cause problems for the Bills. I don’t have much faith in the Bears’ defense, either, but — if looking at two teams with unimpressive defenses — I’ll take the offense that is stocked with proven veterans over the youthful offense that is banking a lot on the production from a (potentially not 100% healthy) rookie WR. Bears over Bills.

Redskins @ Texans –

The only football-related story that I have heard coming out of DC this summer is the questions surrounding if RGIII is going to be healthy to start the season. I don’t follow them closely and so I haven’t heard much — one way or the other — with any great deal of confidence. That said, being on the road and going up against a potentially great pass rush (in Watts and Clowney) does make me concerned for RGIII, especially if he does not have his mobility. Unlike other “mobile” QBs, I don’t think that RGIII can play well without mobility; I think that is a much bigger part of his game than the other “mobile” QBs. I have a lot of questions about the Texans’ offense (ex. I have no idea who their starting QB is going to be…but it doesn’t seem like they have a solid pick, either…and that’s never good)….but I’d say it’s almost on par with the amount of questions that I have on the Redskins’ defense. Ergo, I’ll take the superior defense/pass rush and the home team: Texans over Redskins.

Titans @ Chiefs –

Last season, as you may recall, I was big on the Chiefs. They had been a terrible team in the recent pass…but consistently had 8 or so Pro Bowl players on their team…..so they had talent but lacked a reliable QB and solid coaching. Then they got Reid and Alex Smith, addressing both of those areas…. and for the first half of the season they were making me look like a genius, haha. Even though they stumbled as the season progressed and, ultimately, got bit (with a vengeance) by the Injury Bug in that playoff game in Indy, I felt as though they lived up to my expectations. This year, though, I’m not sure. No one seems to be talking about them — everyone is occupied with the Broncos (obviously) and there’s a bit of buzz around the Chargers, I hear as well; but I don’t know why the Chiefs can’t be competitive. If anything, given another year with the offense, Alex Smith and the rest of those pieces should be clicking better; their defense hasn’t changed all that much from last year, either, I don’t believe. However, for as quiet as the Chiefs have been this off-season and preseason, the Titans have been quieter (in my world). Ergo, I’ll stick with the home team in this one, simply because the Titans are not on my radar as a team to look out for in the AFC this season. Chiefs over Titans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

I don’t follow the Dolphins, really, but I know that last year they had the whole media circus revolving Incognito and Martin, and that probably did have some impact on their performance. Meanwhile, the Patriots had an incredibly mediocre roster of talent last year….and still won the division….and still made it to the AFC Championship game. I don’t know if Gronk has been cleared to play (and how many games he will play this season; injury or re-injury seems inevitable) but I imagine that it’s Week 1 and the Patriots are as healthy as they’ll be, so I imagine that they will be able to get this win on the road. Patriots over Dolphins.

Panthers @ Buccaneers –

The Panthers’ offense has me concerned. Similar to the Bills, they seem to be relying a lot on young players on offense; really, just two young players on offense. While I think that Cam Newton is better than EJ Manuel, I believe that Cam is still nursing a rib injury and his ankle may be a concern, plus is O-line is not a strength of the offense. Team that with the departure of Steve Smith and thus a rather unproven receiver corps, I don’t know what to think of their offense. I reckon that their defense will still be a great defense so they do have that going for them. Meanwhile, the Buccs have a new head coach, are removed from the QB distraction from last year, and I think could make progress this year within the division. Because I have a few questions marks surrounding the Panthers’ offense right now, I’m going to stay with the home team and pick the Buccs, and then re-evaluate my opinion of the Panthers after I see them in action. Buccs over Panthers.

49ers @ Cowboys –

For all of the talk about how my beloved 49ers are in shambles right now (and some media folks even writing them off this season), the word that I keep reading and hearing from players and coaches is that things are just fine; so I’ll trust them on that. I think that the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the ball against us — passing defense is not our strength, especially when we’ll be without 2 of our best pass-pressure players (Aldon & Bowman), but who knows? Maybe our secondary will be better this year with the changes that we have made? Regardless, the Cowboys’ defense is supposed to be one of the worst…..ever…..and so I imagine that our offense will be able to move the ball on them, as well. In that case, I will take the more all-around-talented team and I hope to see some good performances from our younger players: namely, Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James. 49ers over Cowboys.

Colts @ Broncos –

The Colts tempt me in this game. However, seeing how they needed the Injury Bug to strike KC in that playoff game last season in order to win, coupled with the fact that the Broncos are in full-on Super-Bowl-or-Bust mode right now (with their off-season spending spree), I don’t think that the Broncos are going to come out of the gates with a loss….at home. My concerns with the Broncos’ veteran additions (and their ability to hold up for the whole season) is irrelevant in Week 1, so I’ll be taking the Broncos at home. Broncos over Colts.

Giants @ Lions –

The Lions are one of the more talented teams in the League, in my opinion, and perhaps their late-season collapses were more the result of their coaching than of the players on the field? We’ll find out this year, as Jim Caldwell is the new head coach. I wasn’t impressed with Caldwell when he was at the helm of the Colts but he took that talented team to the Super Bowl….where he was promptly out-coached and the Colts were out-played by the Saints. That said, I don’t think that the Lions are Super Bowl-bound, but I think that they’ll make the post-season, sure. Meanwhile, I don’t think that the Giants will do much this year and so I’ll stick with the more talented team, especially while at home in the season-opener. Lions over Giants.

Chargers @ Cardinals –

I don’t know if I’ve bought into the hype of the Chargers or just have too many questions to back the Cardinals in this game, but in what little action I saw from the Chargers’ starters in their preseason game against us, they seem to be in a good place right now. Rivers seems happy in the new system, he was making good decisions, high-percentage passes, and such an approach could be successful against the Cards since they lost Dockett and another defensive star on the line. Patrick Peterson, I believe, is no longer handling punt return duties and we’ll see how the Honey Badger rebounds this season. Ultimately, though, my questions with the Cards are with Carson Palmer: he hasn’t been the same since his knee got blown out in that playoff game as a Bengal and now, I believe, he is in his upper 30s and I expect his production to fall off this season — but will that drop off start to happen in Week 1? That is the question. I haven’t made many bold picks this week so I’ll roll with the Chargers in this game and see what happens. Chargers over Cardinals.

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We’ll see how Week 1 goes and I’ll recap it on Tuesday evening.

-Ryan.

09/01/2014

NFL 2014 Predictions: The Seahawks Will Not Repeat (I Don’t Think So, At Least)

One of my friends on the Facebook was posting about his belief that the Seahawks would take a step back this year, meanwhile, the media is all over the Seahawks as being the best-looking team coming out of preseason. Did they look impressive? Sure, much like the University of Oregon, they do take pride in running up the score on either bad teams or in irrelevant games (like preseason); but that is aside from my point.

I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat as champions, this year, not because I don’t like them, or that I don’t respect them, or that I don’t think that they are a good team; none of those reasons. I don’t think that they will repeat simply because of their schedule and, most importantly, their Bye Week.

Last year, the Seahawks got their rest for a post-season push in Week 12, and that always helps. This year, though? They will be getting their rest in the month of September (Wk 4). This means that they will have 3 straight months of football, from their Bye Week to the end of the regular season and, potentially, another month of post-season football in order to get in the position to repeat as champions. That, though, is a very tall order.

Here is how I break down their schedule:

Pre-Bye Week, they have 3 Super Bowl contenders, in a lot of peoples’ minds: Packers, @ Chargers, then hosting the Broncos. I don’t know if any of those games are slam-dunk victories for the Seahawks. For as much as people are quick to talk about their home-field advantage, it is not as dominant as people believe it to be. Yes, in the past 3 years they have only lost there once (last season vs. the Cardinals), but they have had some really close calls. While I don’t think that it is likely that they lose back-to-back home games to start off the season, I would not be surprised if they lost one of them. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they went into their bye week 3-0, either. Best case scenario is 3-0, but if they go into their Bye Week 1-2 or 0-3, it could potentially sink their season. Why? It’s a long season.

Coming out of their Bye Week, I think that they will have good success against the Redskins (in DC) and the Cowboys, at home. But then they go on the road against the Rams and then to Carolina to play the Panthers; and while both of those teams may be in disarray on the offensive side of the ball, both teams possess big, physical defenses. Last year, the Panthers held the Seahawks to under 2 TDs in Carolina (in an eventual loss), while the Rams held the Seahawks to negative yardage in the first quarter before eventually losing 14-9 — after failing on a 4th and Goal that would have won the game. Can they win these games? Possibly/probably, simply because their defense will be good enough to keep it close and, while the offense may get battered, I still think that they have enough to win the games.

They then come home for the Raiders and the Giants, which are games that I don’t think that they will struggle with. And that is the last real ray of sunshine for the Seahawks in the regular season, in my opinion.

They then go on the road to Kansas City, and while I think that the Chiefs will take a step back this year, I also think that the Seahawks struggle on the road. Especially when going to a stadium that is equally loud, as Arrowhead can get. The Seahawks are good enough to win this game but I think that it can wear on them.

They then return home to host the Cardinals (who beat them in Seattle in their last meeting) and while I’m not sold on the Cards’ offensive weapons, I think that their defense can give the Seahawks some problems. They then play us 4 nights later on Thanksgiving night, where we will have Aldon Smith back (fresh), likely to have Bowman back healthy, and, even if McDonald is convicted on the domestic violence charge (court appearance is later this month), he will also likely be back from the 6-game suspension the League protocol would dictate. Not to mention that we will have been just coming off of our Bye Week four weeks prior.

The Seahawks next travel to Philadelphia to play the fastest-paced team in the NFL. Which, for a team that hasn’t had a week off in over 2 months, is probably going to be an added challenge. I imagine that also playing outside in the potential cold/snow of Philadelphia could also be an added wrinkle that the Seahawks are not used to having to deal with.

From there, they fly back across the continent to host us (whereas we will have had a “road” game in Oakland), and we gave them a tough game the last time that we played in Seattle, and so I have no reason to think that we won’t bring them a challenge once again.

Before going on the road to play Arizona and their strong defense, and then finishing the regular season at home against the Rams’ strong defense. That is 5 of their last 6 games against the NFC West, with that one other game being a cross-continental game against a very fast-paced offense. It’ll be tough sledding, I reckon.

I think that the Seahawks are good enough to win a lot of these potentially close games — I think that they go 12-4 this season — BUT I don’t think that they get home-field advantage this year (I think that the post-season will go through New Orleans). That said, while I think that they have enough to make it into the post-season, I don’t think that they will have enough left in the tank to win it all this year. And that is why I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat this year.

-Ryan.

02/03/2014

NFL Season-Ending Post: Super Bowl Recap & The 49ers Off-Season

With the NFL season now over, I’m spending my Super Monday — feeling better, recovering from my head cold — looking forward to the off-season ahead. I’ll recap the Super Bowl real quickly because, one, I didn’t watch all of it, and two, there’s nothing that really needs to be said about it ad nauseam…

Super Bowl Recap

The Super Bowl played out a lot like I thought it was going to, with the exception of the turnovers. I didn’t think that Denver would have so many of them (especially the fumble by Thomas, I believe, who was cradling the ball surprisingly loosely while trying to stiff-arm the defender). The Broncos looked kind of sloppy, but I don’t think that they expected the game to go like that at all. It looked like they were caught off guard and didn’t know what was going on. However, I don’t think that it made too much of a difference. I think that they were over-matched in that game and the better team won.

I didn’t watch the entire game because I had been battling a head cold since Thursday afternoon and so I stayed up long enough to see the first half and a little bit into the 3rd quarter before deciding to call it a game and go back to bed. My health was more important to me than watching the Seahawks celebrate. I don’t know who ended up being the MVP, but I think it was their LB Smith, who got the pick-6, and I am okay with that. I agree with Joe Buck (or Aikman?) who said that Avril should have been the MVP, but it had to be someone on the defense and so I’m okay with Smith getting it.

That said, with the season now concluded, I took some time this afternoon to put away my Niners gear for the off-season and will wrap up the season with this post about things that I look forward to over the course of the next few months.

49ers OFF-SEASON

I think that we are right up there with Seattle. That NFC title game came down to a handful of plays that they beat us on, and so I, obviously, like where our team is and it is merely a matter of shoring up some areas of weakness and getting/staying healthy. But, by and large, I think that we will be ready to go next season. Here is what I think that our team should have in store:

Free Agency

We have a lot of depth in key areas, and so I don’t think that our Free Agent “issue” is too much of an issue. Here are the Free Agents that we are looking at:

Offense: C Goodwin; QB McCoy; RB Dixon; WR Manningham; WR Boldin. I don’t think that Goodwin, Dixon, nor Manningham will be with us next season – unless major changes to deals get made. Goodwin, I think, can lose out to Kilgore for his spot (even though Kilgore got a DUI or something drinking-related I saw recently), and so I could see us promoting Kilgore and drafting a rookie Center in the Draft for our plans moving forward – I think that move would shave off a million or so. Dixon is expendable simply because, in my opinion, he doesn’t bring anything unique to our running game, he isn’t very good at pass protection, and we have a crowded backfield as it is. Gore is certainly on the decline, I think, but we still have Hunter and James, and Lattimore is expected to get some reps next season. I just don’t see Dixon being kept around.

*Note: While not a Free Agent, I was displeased with James’ recent taking to Twitter (again) and whining about not having enough playing time… despite being our primary return guy nowadays… and so I don’t think that he will be with us next season. So, Dixon may benefit from this. If we ship James somewhere else, we may need to keep Dixon as insurance (if nothing else), because Gore is getting up there in age and Lattimore, while I’m told has looked promising, hasn’t played a down of football in almost 2 years. So, Dixon may get kept simply because James reportedly wants out. *

We’ll probably keep McCoy but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a repeat of this past camp/pre-season where we audition a lot of different QBs for the back-up role – so McCoy may make it past the Draft but I don’t necessarily think that he will be on our roster next year. Personally, I think that if our offense is going to be now built around a more mobile QB, in Kaepernick, that we should probably have an athletic QB backing him just so that our offense can stay consistent, in the event that Kaepernick goes down. I think that Manningham is done; not really his fault – bad injuries – but he didn’t bring as much to our receiver corps as we had thought/hoped when we signed him last season, and so I think that we are going to part ways with him. It may not be a bad idea to try to redo the WR corps with younger guys as it is. Which I immediately contradict next…haha…

Which leaves, my man, Anquan “Grown Man” Boldin – I hope that we keep him. I would really like to see (at least) one more year with him on our team. I have read reports that, at 33yrs old, he’s going to be too expensive to keep on at his current salary, and that it would be better – financially – to use that money to extend upcoming contracts (like Crabtree’s)…and I don’t know if I agree with that. I’m 100% biased because I like Boldin; I like his style of play; I like what he brings to our offense; I like the mentorship that he offers to our young receivers; and I like how well he was able to step up and play for us when we didn’t have anyone else to step up and play. And, it may be unpopular to state but, I don’t know if we should invest in Crabtree long term.

Others may have forgotten – but I haven’t, haha – how he held out as a rookie. I hope that he’s grown up more between now and then, but if he wants a huge contract that costs us other talent, I’d be okay with trading him. Our offense isn’t what wins us games (right now), and while I think that he is a talented receiver, look at the receivers who just beat us – especially, Doug Baldwin. Undrafted, making, I believe, $700k a year, for the next few years. Unless our offense is going to shift to a pass-first offense (which the addition of Lattimore doesn’t make me think that is the long-term plan), then I don’t think that we need marquee names at the WR position. Patton showed promise in the latter part of the season; maybe Jon Baldwin will finally show up next season; maybe we can find prospects in the Draft. I just hope that we don’t handcuff ourselves to Crabtree at the risk of losing other critical pieces.

Tangent aside, I hope that we can work something out with Boldin to somehow keep him on our team.

Defense: CB Brown; CB Rogers; S Whitner; CB Wright; LB Wilhoite; DL/TE Dobbs. I think that we should definitely keep Whitner and Eazy-E (Wright). I don’t know what financial figures that they are going to demand, but if we can lock Wright up for another inexpensive contract, that would be HUGE for us. With Culliver coming back next season, if we can have a secondary with him, Wright, Reid, Whitner, and Brock… that’s not too bad. Definitely look to draft some DBs, too. But I think that we definitely cut ties with Rogers and Brown – I think that they both are too expensive, for us, at this point, especially with how well Brock stepped up this season and the anticipated return of Culliver.

Wilhoite and Dobbs are interesting because I liked both of them this season, and if the price is right, I think we should keep them. However, our LBs are solid (right now – I don’t know what will happen to Aldon in terms of legal issues), AND Lemonier showed talent when filling in for Aldon this season, as did Skuta. So, I think that Wilhoite may be a cap casualty. Likewise, our D Line is also a strong point for us, I think, when we get Ian Williams back from injury next year, then we will have him and Dorsey, Justin Smith, Tank Carradine, and, I’m hopeful, LAWRENCE OKOYE – yes, despite having no idea how to pronounce his name, I am a HUGE believer in this guy, with this coaching staff. A 22yo, 6’6″, 284lbs multi-sport athlete (in Britain) who ran a 4.84 in the 40yd dash, and possesses a 3ft vertical jump….. geez, if we can incorporate him into our D line unit, we could cause a lot of problems for opposing offensive lines. After sitting out this whole season, my hope is that we can get him involved next year. Can you imagine?? I can. And it is exciting. All of that said, I think that – unless the price is really right – we part ways with both Wilhoite and Dobbs… unless something happens with Aldon Smith or we aren’t confident in our replacements for Bowman (who, last I heard, was likely out until at least next November – at the very earliest).

Special Teams: ST Osgood; K Dawson. While Osgood had some big plays for us on special teams this season, I agree with some of the reports that I’ve read that he is, really, just a special teams specialist for us – and so we may draft someone to do the job cheaper. So, I don’t think that Osgood will be with us next season. I do, however, think that we bring Dawson back. He was reliable and clutch for us this year. And if our offense is going to be predicated around kicking as many FGs as we have in the past (haha), we should keep a reliable kicker.

So, that is where I believe that we are headed with our off-season Free Agents. I don’t know of any Free Agent targets around the League right now, I haven’t looked into other teams’ contract situations.

The Draft

I’ve read message boards* from Niner “fans” saying that we should start looking to draft a QB who can “make NFL throws”, and it boggles my mind. I don’t know what these people are watching, but Kaepernick makes some AMAZING throws, and diverse throws, at that. For example, he has had some beautiful throws on fade routes, and back shoulders; that jump throw to Boldin for a TD was incredible. How many QBs can run forward, have the presence to stop before crossing the line, then do a jump pass, and fire a laser 30yds to the back of the end zone? I think Aaron Rodgers has the arm to do it, but that’s about it, in my opinion. Kaepernick has the tools to be a good QB – at the very least – but he’s still young, and so he makes young QB mistakes – like that attempt to throw over Chancellor’s head that was picked. (Although, to be fair, while I don’t like it, he completes that pass attempt surprisingly more than you’d think – as he did on the next drive. And, had that been a bad throw, then that’s not just a pick, that’s a pick-6 – so I chalk that up to more of a bad decision/great defensive play as opposed to a bad throw.)

*Message boards are a scary place. You can see some of the darkest parts of people when writing from the comfort of their computer in relative anonymity. However, every so often, there is some gold material, too. It’s a gamble. But, by and large, it’s the dark stuff – authored by people who, apparently, do not know how to spell, or who prefer to utilize that incredibly annoying text-type-nonsense.

Personally, I think that we were the best team in the NFL at the end of the season – which will certainly irritate Seahawks fans (but that’s just an added bonus -wink-). We took it to them in Seattle and, on that final drive, I guarantee that everyone watching that game thought that this was a 50/50 game.

That said, in my non-GM opinion, here is our breakdown:

I think that we are good at the QB position; and I think that we are more than good at the RB position; we are probably good at the TE position – with McDonald playing much better at the end of the season than how he started (naturally); I think that we are good with our Kicker (if we re-sign Dawson) and Punter; I think that we are good with our LBs (maybe get an insurance policy for Aldon/Bowman); and, if resigning Whitner, as I expect, I think that we are good with our Safeties.

I would like us to look at DBs, WRs, and OL, as our top targets. First and foremost, I think, is our secondary. I think that we should draft some DBs, because it is our cover guys that are the weak-link on our defense. Sparing any unexpected setbacks, if we can get Cully, Brock, and Wright as our main guys next season, we could develop younger talent in the position. Next, is our O Line: Iupati – if we keep him – is injured and I anticipate that we will let Goody go, in favor of the younger/cheaper Kilgore, so I think that we should look to sign some OL prospects as well because, obviously, your offense is going to struggle if the O Line isn’t very good. Our WRs have been disappointing and will continue to be so if we lose Boldin (which I hope doesn’t happen). I don’t think that we should spend top picks on WRs, since our WRs aren’t winning us games, but if we can get some good players at a bargain, then I say let’s do it. Hopefully, bigger-bodied WRs. Seattle’s secondary is a physical one, and young, so we’re going to have to compete against them for the next few years, I imagine. So, we might as well look to invest in 6’3-6’4″ WRs that can match them physically. Even if it’s just a guy, I think that we need that one.

Those are my thoughts on our Draft needs.

Doubt Colin Kaepernick? I Don’t.

I think that people are being way too hard on Kaepernick. I am impressed with him, honestly. He played a solid game – granted, he made some mistakes, but what’s better is that he owned up to them; he shows great leadership qualities and growing maturity at the QB position. I think that people are quick to forget that: 1) he is only 26yrs old and just finished his first full season as a starter in the NFL – he is going to make mistakes; how many QBs come into this League and play without these mistakes? Not many (if any); and 2) that Seattle is a very good team. This wasn’t him making mistakes against a 7-9 Wild Card team – we were playing a 14-2 team with the #1 defense in the League, on the road. So, I have no qualms with the mistakes that he made, since he acknowledged them and, reportedly, spent that next day at the team facility trying to learn from them. I think that we forget how inexperienced he is because he has taken us through two post-seasons now, that we have the bar held a little too high, perhaps. I believe that he will improve.

We were always, in my opinion, excessively hard on Alex Smith, too. Anyone who has ever played football knows how complicated it can be to have to adjust to different coordinators each year, so that was our bad more than Alex’s. That said, I think that we are being too hard on Kaepernick by expecting him to play at a level that he isn’t at yet. That said, Kaepernick has a lot of upside for a guy who is still young and only entering his second full-season as a starter. *IF* we can retain Boldin and his off-season training with Patton continues, it could be interesting to see what a full season of Boldin, Crabtree, Patton, & Davis do for him and his continued growth.

That said, I don’t think it’s a personnel problem that we have, it might be something else.

Maybe It’s Greg Roman

When Harbaugh came to town and turned a 6-10 roster into a 13-3 contender, we fell short in the NFC title game. Why? Because Alex Smith didn’t have any good receivers to throw to – that’s why. So, what did we do? We went out and got Manningham, and an eager-to-prove-eager-to-win veteran in Randy Moss to compliment Crabtree, Davis, and Walker. And when our offense still didn’t impress, until Kaepernick debuted against that bad Bears defense, we determined that it was because Alex Smith wasn’t the right QB for our offense; he wasn’t explosive enough, and that is why our offense was still struggling…. until it continued to struggle clear on through those final terrible plays from the Baltimore 5yd line. Well, we then determined that we didn’t have Manningham for the post-season (which was why we recruited him, for those big moments in big games) and that Randy Moss was just too old to play – so we went out and got Boldin to replace him. You see the the trend that I’m getting at?

At some point, when the moving around of personnel pieces doesn’t seem to solve the problem, it’s time to look at other components. Kaepernick runs the plays that are called – that’s his job. Granted, he has things he needs to work on (i.e. not locking eyes on his intended receiver, allowing everyone in the stadium – let alone on the defense – know where he is throwing), but why call 3 straight passes from the 5yd line when you have a big, dominant offensive line, and a STABLE of running backs??? Even Kaepernick on a keeper is good for 3yds, so long as he falls forward! I don’t get it.

The reason that we ultimately lost the title game against Seattle this season, I believe, is because of the play-calling. Some say that it was just botched on all-levels of our offense, from on the field to clock management, but I had no problem with the clock management: we had 2 time outs, 30 seconds on the clock, and were inside their 20 – I was more than fine with that predicament. Especially, considering Baldwin already had one HUGE return, I did not want to give them the ball back with time to do anything with it. So I was perfectly content on hitting something over the middle, picking up the first, using a time out and then taking strikes at the end zone until we got it in or time expired.

Going for the home-run, especially against their best defender, with Crabtree (who is not the right match-up for that play), at that point in the game, I believe, was a HUGE mistake. I like Crabtree. I think that he is a good receiver, a good play-maker when he gets the ball, but he’s not a physical, jump ball, go-up-and-get-it receiver. He’s just not. We saw that last year in the Super Bowl and again in the NFC title game this year. If going to do a fade route/jump ball with the game on the line, I’d much rather see that pass go to Boldin – a man that’s a big-bodied receiver, with strong hands, who likes to be physical, and who has proven he can go up and bring the ball down. Hit Crabtree on a quick slant and let him move vertically; or drop it to him down the side line and let him make a play with his feet – those are his areas of expertise. Not a one-on-one showdown with a big, physical corner, who happens to be the best DB in the League. Crabtree, I think, loses that match-up every…single…time. It’s not his game. I think we all know it – Baltimore sure seemed to know it; that’s why they hit and jammed him on all THREE of those pass attempts, because he’s not the type of receiver who can make those plays.

I didn’t have a problem with the pass-call because, clearly, Seattle’s defense had utterly dominated Frankie that day, so a run play wasn’t going to be the answer. I think he had one “big” run of 9yds, but it was incredibly tough sledding for him that day. And, from what I’ve seen in the replays, is that they were shading their LBs to give the underneath but keeping an eye on Kaepernick. However, I would have liked a quick slant or dropping it off to Hunter in the flat, or looking to make a rub with Davis to free Boldin, or Boldin to free Davis on the other side. We had the personnel and time to come up with a scoring play on that drive, so it is a bummer that we went all-in on the first place and lost.

My point: there were a lot of plays that I think we could have ran more successfully in that situation than the one we picked, and so I think that falls on partially/mostly on Roman. Also, I didn’t like how we abandoned designed Kaepernick runs in that game when it seemed like their defense had no answer for how to defend him. Even when spying him with an LB, Kaepernick didn’t seem to have much trouble picking up 12yds a run, and almost broke that long one for a TD. We have the tendency to give up on things that are working and I’m not entirely sure why.

Oh well.

####

Those are my thoughts for things we need to look at during the off-season. I think that we will be okay next season and, hopefully, we don’t have any health setbacks this off-season like we did last off-season because missing guys in the early part of the season ended up being huge for us when all was said and done — if we beat either the Colts or the Panthers, we would have been the #2 or #1 seed. That’s how it goes sometimes, though. It was a good year to be a 49er, though, and I look forward to what the 2014 season has in store.

While I don’t anticipate more football posts this season, I’m not ruling it out either. I thoroughly enjoy this game and so if topics come up, I’ll probably have thoughts of my own on them. In the meantime, I transition to other sports (hockey and baseball, primarily) that I will comment on AND also commercials, silly ranking lists, and movie commentaries are a lot of what can be expected in the months ahead. Thanks for reading. Go Niners!

-Ryan.

01/31/2014

NFL: Super Bowl Preview #3 – Why the Seahawks Will Win on Sunday

One of my favorite times of the year is the Super Bowl, and, with my beloved 49ers not participating this year, I am able to get back to the more objective, fan-fueled view of the “Big Game”.

While some folks applaud the NFL for taking the Super Bowl to a cold, open-air stadium for the championship game – to etch its memories into the scrolls along side other storied cold-weather games, and letting the players prove who is best in the worst of conditions – I do not like it. When we get to the Super Bowl, the weather shouldn’t have an advantage on one side more than another. Odds are that these teams either are great teams or hot teams that beat great teams, so I am confident that they will show up to play regardless of the conditions. That said, the Super Bowl shifts more to the festival environment surrounding the game….and who wants to pay thousands of dollars to sit up in the nose-bleeds for 4 hours*, bundled up in the cold, having to endure Super-priced, watered-down beers, and stadium food?? No one. That’s who. So, let’s keep the Super Bowl to warm places so that it’s a better experience for the thousands of people who are just watching the game.

*thanks to the extra long halftime show…which, by the way, I can’t imagine that they are too stoked to be performing in sub-freezing weather either….especially, since that is when I go to get my refreshments and aren’t watching TV – like the vast majority of the TV-watching world. Maybe even the in-stadium crowd, too.

I’m going to break down my opinions and thoughts as to why each team is going to win on Sunday. Yesterday, I unveiled my thoughts on the AFC Champions, the Denver Broncos, and, now, I will turn to the much more familiar foe in the NFC Champions: the Seattle Seahawks.

Why the Seahawks Will Win On Sunday

Putting it quite simply: the Seahawks are the better team. I would even go far as to say “vastly” better team. For anyone who has been enjoying my rants on Facebook this week, this is all old news, a lot of which copy-pasted right from it.

This will upset a lot of pro-Bronco/Manning fans, and I get it – no one likes having their team disrespected in the Super Bowl….but I think that it needs to be said. The Broncos, without doubt, are the best team in the AFC this season – but I should also qualify that as the “depleted” AFC. When the New England Patriots can lose BOTH of their TEs (which their offensive scheme is built upon); their two best defensive players (Wilfork & Mayo); then their best secondary player (Talib)….and STILL win their Division…STILL get the #2 seed in the Conference…and, STILL make it to the AFC Championship game…..to me, that speaks volumes to the competitive level in the AFC.

The Seahawks Are the Better Team

The only advantage that I give the Broncos, in this game, is in the QB position: Peyton Manning is undoubtedly a much better QB than Russell Wilson, and no one will argue the contrary; rather, no one in their right mind will argue to the contrary. That said, the Seahawks are a better running team; I think that their WRs (although not marquee named) are just as good as the Broncos’; the Seahawks’ defense is undoubtedly VASTLY superior to the Broncos’; and the Seahawks are the more proven team coming out of the LOADED NFC.

The Broncos are the best team for the Seahawks to play, probably the best team for ANY of the NFC powerhouses to play. In the NFC, you have so many mobile/dual-threat QBs from Kaepernick to Rodgers to Brees to Wilson to RGIII to Newton, so our defenses are fast and athletic. With the AFC, though, and especially Manning, the QB position is one where they tend to like to stay in the pocket. The Seahawks aren’t going to have to devote a guy to spy Peyton Manning – he’s not going to beat them with his legs or his scrambling ability/mobility. They can rush 3-4 guys and drop everyone else into coverage – which is a tactic that was proven successful this season by Jacksonville (amongst others), but they didn’t have the talent on defense to really take over the game. Seattle does have that talent.

I think that, because of the competitive level in the NFC, and their style of play (being run-focused), Seattle’s offensive line is better than Denver’s offensive line. Denver’s run defense has done well in stopping opposing run games this season (I’m told), but none of the runners that they have faced are as big and bruising as Marshawn Lynch. And, even if they do shut him down (which I don’t think that they can), it then opens up plays for Wilson and the passing game because, at the very least, you have to respect Lynch and the run game. Denver’s defense is not good. They are a below-average defense that has, really, not been a spotlighted issue because of the historic year that the offense has had.

If the Broncos’ defensive front cannot pressure Wilson, then they are just as vulnerable Sunday as they were last year. The same way that they got beat last year by Baltimore – young, athletic receivers – is exactly what they’ll face this year in Seattle. The Seahawks’ receivers are good receivers. I’m not a Percy Harvin fan — as is well-documented — but Kearse, Tate, Baldwin, these guys are very good at making tough catches, getting open on broken plays, and coming through when needed. They are young and fast, which is something that I think will be a problem for Denver’s older secondary.

I just think that this game is too much for Denver. They are hinging way too much of their success on one man (Peyton Manning), whose style of play (the passing game), plays RIGHT INTO THE DEFENSIVE STRENGTH of the opposition. I’d give them more of a chance against any other NFC team simply because teams like my 49ers, the Saints, Packers, Panthers, etc. are more defensive-front heavy than secondary threats. The Seahawks are the ones who have it reversed. However, I still think that the Broncos are too one-dimensional to win a game against the NFC. It may come back to bite me but I don’t see how.

History Repeats Itself

Being a big fan of history, as well as irrelevant/obscure statistics, as well as sports superstitions, I think there are some other intangible things that I’m considering for this game. Some seem silly but I think that there is something to it, for sure:

I read somewhere that 3 times prior the QB who led the NFL in passing yards and TDs during the regular season (as Peyton did this year) had advanced to the Super Bowl….and lost all 3 times (Marino, Warner, and Brady). So, that isn’t a good omen for Denver.

I believe that the #1 defense and #1 offense have faced off in 3 previous Super Bowls, and the #1 defense has won the majority – so that also doesn’t bode well for Denver’s #1 offense.

The Broncos have appeared in 5 Super Bowls, winning 2 and losing 3. In their two wins, they wore their white jersey and their blue jersey. In their 3 losses? They wore orange. On Sunday, they have elected to wear orange. **correction: their loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XXI they were wearing white**

Furthermore, the team in the white jersey has won 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls – which is amazingly high percentage to be coincidental, in my opinion. And, with the Broncos electing to wear orange, it puts the Seahawks in their white jerseys. Not good.

The last NFC #1 seed to make it through the playoffs and advance to the Super Bowl was the New Orleans Saints. Who then beat Peyton Manning, the Colts’ highly-toted offense, and suspect defense, for their franchise’s first championship. The Seahawks are the NFC’s #1 seed who also won the Conference, and will be going up against, you guessed it, Peyton Manning, the now-Broncos’ highly toted offense, and suspect defense, for their franchise’s first championship. It’s eerie.

In fact, there are a lot of similarities between this coming Sunday and that Colt-Saints Super Bowl — from the winter storms of epic proportions that slammed the Eastern US, all the way down to Peyton’s counter part being an undersized QB — and so, I would not be surprised if this game ends up a lot like that game. The final score of that Super Bowl was 31-17 – but I don’t know if I see the Seahawks’ defense giving up 17 to this offense, simply because, as stated, the Broncos’ offense plays DIRECTLY into their defensive strength (passing). But, if predicting a score, that’s what I would ride with. Unless the NFL/officials get involved, of course, because I do think that this is Peyton’s Last Ride. I don’t think that we will see him in the Super Bowl again.

#####

That said, I want the Broncos to win but I don’t think that they can. Anyone who has kept up with me on Facebook this week knows this; I haven’t been shy about that belief. I guess that we will see what happens. I’m running a fever and having to breathe through my nose and so I’m going back to bed now.

-Ryan.

01/29/2014

NFL: Super Bowl Preview #2 – Why the Broncos Will Win on Sunday

One of my favorite times of the year is the Super Bowl, and, with my beloved 49ers not participating this year, I am able to get back to the more objective, fan-fueled view of the “Big Game”.

I’m going to break down my opinions and thoughts as to why each team is going to win on Sunday. First up, the AFC Champions: the Denver Broncos.

Why the Denver Broncos will win on Sunday

I haven’t seen a full game of the Broncos this season – I admit that upfront. However, I have seen them in bits and pieces, and, of course, the highlight reels and game recaps throughout the season. That said, I turned to Facebook and my friends who are Broncos’ fans and asked them why they thought that the Broncos would win: “Peyton Manning is going to win it”…. “Because they have Peyton Manning, and he’s the best QB in history”…. “Peyton Manning – he’ll find a way to win” …. “Peyton Manning is going to torch Seattle’s defense” …. Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning….

Now, I’m not a Broncos fan, but – if I was – it would concern me that my Super Bowl hopes hinged solely on the throwing arm of a near-39yr old QB, with 4 neck surgeries, ankle injuries this season, who notoriously struggles in the cold (0-4 in cold-weather post-season games), and who is going up against the best defense in the League — especially the best pass-covering defense in the League — who has already managed to hold other great QBs and offenses at bay.

However, here is how I think that the Broncos will be able to win on Sunday:

The Last Ride of Peyton Manning

I think that this is Peyton Manning’s last Super Bowl appearance – win or lose. If he wins, I think that he retires – he’s been quietly kind of alluding to the potential that he may retire if he wins, with comments about how he isn’t making plans versus, if he was for sure coming back, I imagine that he would say: “Oh, I’m coming back”. He also has a medical exam in March to check the status of his neck, so, medically, he may not be cleared to return. Furthermore, it seemed like he was running up the score on bad teams this year in order to pad his stats and add some more honors to his already incredible resume…. just in case it ends up being his last season.

If the Broncos lose, I don’t think that he will be back because, realistically, he probably has another 2yrs, max, left in him and this is “their” year. The AFC was void of real contenders to Denver. The Ravens lost a lot of key players from their Super Bowl run last year; the Texans imploded in epic fashion; the Patriots lost an incredible amount of their anchors – on both sides of the ball; the Colts still showed that they are not quite a championship-caliber team, yet; and the Chiefs, while turning some heads, still have a lot of things to work on. All of that said, I don’t think this perfect storm will happen next year. Furthermore, next season they will certainly be playing a tougher schedule as they trade the porous defenses of the NFC East for the elite defenses of the NFC West.

But, to get back to this season, and how this will impact Sunday: I think that this is the Last Ride of Peyton Manning.

I also believe that the NFL wants him to succeed – as does the media. The narrative is there: he’s Peyton Manning, the lovable, respected QB, who battled back from neck injuries to have one of the greatest single-season performances of all-time, and now is in the Super Bowl, with an opportunity to go out on top. To gain this victory over the “thugs” in Seattle would make for an even greater narrative, easily identifiable with all audiences as the hero (Peyton Manning) defeating the villain at the end of the story, despite all of the odds to the contrary.

Winning this game, also, gives more credence to the claim that Peyton Manning is the greatest QB of all time: he will have won 2 Super Bowls (Eli no longer having more than him, haha); he would have won it in a cold-weather game; AND against a defense that stymied other greats such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

The How: Favorable officiating.

Now, I’m not saying that the officials are going to make BS calls that screw Seattle out of the championship but what I am saying is that the favor of the League, the media, and, yes, down to the officiating crew is the lone advantage that the Broncos have in this game. Let’s say that the Seahawks do get called for BS penalties and get screwed out of the championship – it has happened before – who will care? They’re a smaller-market team, tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, with a rich tradition of coming up just short. IF they got screwed again this year, the only people who will remember it 2+ years later are the Seattle fans; everyone else will remember Peyton Manning hoisting the Lombardi trophy on the podium.

That said, I’m not saying that the officials are going to call BS penalties on the Seahawks in order for the Broncos to win – they don’t have to call BS penalties, they just have to call a tight game. Which is very possible.

The Seahawks’ secondary is NOTORIOUS for holding receivers at the top of routes, making contact after 5yds, mmm some light PI on occasion – they’re physical and they like to get physical with the receivers. On offense, their O-line holds every time Wilson does his little twirling scramble (to be fair, they have no idea he’s doing said scramble to buy time, but the defenders switch direction and get held from the pursuit nonetheless)….. but these are both rarely called. As a 49ers fan who sees them regularly, I know that they rarely called. I could see the officials calling everything if it came down to it, though.

Also, we have gotten dinged with (what I believe to be bogus) penalties when hitting the QB, and that could come into play against the Seattle front. I haven’t seen much of the Broncos this season but I have seen a few instances where Manning seems prone to give himself up when he knows the sack is coming. What I mean by that is that he’ll lower his head into his shoulders, cradling the ball, and, almost, slink down to his knees. That’s all good and well… until the defender, coming at full speed, doesn’t realize that his intended trajectory (Manning’s chest) is actually now going at Manning’s helmet. I could see that being called for automatic first downs. If the League is going to be overly protective of Drew Brees, then certainly Peyton Manning is going to get a lot of careful attention, as well.

Furthermore, I believe that Seattle is the most penalized team in the League, so the opportunity is present to call a bunch of penalties on them and no one could really make too much noise about it. ESPECIALLY when the media is toting them as a gang of “thugs” and they happen to be the most penalized team in the League – it’s an easy sell. Whenever a pundit or critic talked about some questionable calls, the common response would be: the officials have been making questionable calls all season, AND the Seahawks are the most penalized team in the League, so of course they are going to draw penalties.

Now, if the Seahawks were one of the fewest penalized teams in the League, it would be really weird/suspicious if they, suddenly, were being called for a lot of big penalties in the game — that would certainly strike up “conspiracy” talks on the ‘net. But, because they are the most penalized team in the League, this year, there’s definitely the opportunity – and that may be their biggest weakness that Denver is capable of exploiting. At the very least, it could get Seattle out of playing their preferred style of play – which could open up opportunities for Denver’s laser-guided passing attack.

For example: if the Hawks’ secondary is constantly getting flagged for illegal contact or holding when they try to jam shifty, veteran receivers, it may force them to have to play off the receivers — which then creates free-release routes, more optimal timing for Manning, and gets his players in a better position to make plays. That may be enough to keep the Broncos in this game.

The How: Inexperience

Another way that I could see the Seahawks losing this game comes through their inexperience. Sure, the Broncos only have (I believe) 3 players on their roster with Super Bowl experience….but that is 3 more than the Seahawks have. The Seahawks, without question, have more talent on their roster, but I don’t know how their team will handle the Super Bowl stage.

I think that was one of our setbacks last year, that we weren’t (seemingly) prepared for that game…until the end of the 3rd quarter when we got it back together. When you have a collection of guys making their big-game debut, who knows what can happen? Perhaps dropping catch-able passes. Maybe making bad decisions with the football; fumbling in the cold. Or, maybe, letting your emotions get the best of you and making dumb penalties.

I think that the Broncos are more seasoned — namely on offense, with Manning who has been in big-games his entire career, and Welker playing in two past Super Bowls — and so they may have an advantage in maintaining composure and discipline, if the game gets edgy.

Maybe.

Otherwise, I don’t see how the Broncos can win this game.

I don’t think that they can match Seattle’s physicality, on either end of the ball. They have no running game (to speak of) that they can rely on to carry the load – so it all falls back to Manning (again, playing in an environment he struggles in, and against the best defense in the League). Lastly, their below-average defense is not going to win this game for them, either – just as they were exposed by opposing offenses this season, I think that the Seahawks’ offense can (and will) be able to move the ball on them. I think that it comes down to the officiating style going in their favor and Manning making plays from that point forward, or Seattle’s inexperience on the biggest stage where they shoot themselves in the foot more times than they can recover from.

####

Tomorrow, I’ll do my preview on why the Seahawks will win on Sunday. Stay tuned!

-Ryan.

01/26/2014

NFL: Super Bowl Preview #1 – Internet Talk

I’m off all this week for the Super Bowl, which prompted the first question that I have frequently had to address, and so I figured that I’d address other questions/comments that I’ve either been asked or that I’ve seen on the Internet or my Facebook feed. Enjoy!

#1 “You took the week off for the Super Bowl? Talk about counting your chickens before they hatched.”

I didn’t take off this week because I knew that the 49ers were going to be in the Super Bowl – in fact, history was heavily against us on that – but I did know that we were a contender and so it was a good shot that we could go, and, last year, I ended up taking the latter half of Super Week off anyways because I couldn’t focus on anything else (lesson learned). HOWEVER, the reason that, in September, that I requested to take Super Week, and the week after the Super Bowl, off from work was because I had an outside shot of getting to go to NYC and attend the Super Bowl. That’s the only reason that I took the time off. Just in case that I got called and was told “Hey, if you can get here by Wednesday, I’ve got a ticket for you”, I wouldn’t have to plead with the office to let me go and potentially be told “no”. I planned ahead this year and so no matter when I would have been required to be in NYC, I could have done it. And I would have done it, too. However, it didn’t pan out that way and so now I’m just off work, hanging out, on a stay-cation and writing to the Internet instead. Awesome. Hey, at least I’ll be warm and have that grand in my bank account.

#2 “Can’t wait to see Sherman against any of the broncos receivers. Fool spoke too highly of himself too early.”

Sherman will be fine against any of the Broncos’ receivers. He is tall, fast, physical, and athletic – he’s also a smart player that you don’t find out of position that often. So, I wouldn’t be worried (if I was a Seahawks fan) about how the secondary will hold up against the Broncos’ passing game. The only positive that the Broncos have going for them, that past high-profile QBs did not, is that Peyton doesn’t have the arm for the long ball as much as he once did; their offense is more focused on short passes and YAC production, which they may have some success with against Seattle’s secondary. If they can survive the hits that they are certainly going to receive. (I’m looking at you, Wes Welker.)

As we saw in our game against the Seahawks (as well as throughout the season, but most national audiences probably didn’t see many of their games this season), you can move the ball on them if you keep the passes within 7-10yds and then rely on the receivers to make plays after the catch – which the Broncos can do, and do very well. Manning can throw those passes with great accuracy and have his receivers make plays after the catch, and then, maybe, catch a break with the defense up close and get one over the top of the secondary…..but I wouldn’t bank on it. Especially in the cold and outside, if that ball hangs for just a second longer than it needs to, their secondary is fast enough to get back to make a play – or, at the very least, stop a big play on the offense’s side.

The glaring weakness, though, is that Seattle’s defense is so much better than any defense that the Broncos have faced this year. And, because Manning is not a run threat, he’s already going to be contained to the pocket; thus, Seattle can probably rush 3-4 and drop everyone else into coverage to take away the passing lanes. Denver’s running game isn’t going to beat you, and, if I’m Seattle, I’d almost dare them to let the running game beat you. In that respect, Denver’s offense is very one-dimensional (Peyton Manning) which is a considerable vulnerability when going up against the best defense in the League. People talk about “Oh, Denver’s got a great rushing game, too” – I’ll believe it when I see it. They have played against pretty bad defenses this year, so we’ll see how the sledding goes against a top defense.

What will be interesting to see is how Seattle’s offense plays, because the Broncos’ defense is not very good. Especially without Miller. I don’t know if they’ll be able to pressure Wilson (like he’s been under the past few games), and I don’t know if they’ll be able to stop Lynch.

Also, it seems to be unseasonably warm in Denver (in the highlights from the AFC Championship game, it was sunny and Peyton was wearing normal sleeves), but the forecast for NY/NJ next week is looking to be sub-freezing. Peyton doesn’t play as well in the cold – which is worrisome because, in my opinion, he is the Denver Broncos’ only chance at winning: their defense isn’t going to win the game, nor is their special teams, nor is their running game. And, when your success is so intimately connected to a successful passing game — against the best pass covering defense in the League — with a QB who has legendary struggles in cold weather, that is a bit concerning.

HOWEVER, the Seahawks defense commits A LOT of defensive penalties that are seldom called (i.e. holding, illegal contact, not so much PI), which I think will get called in the Super Bowl – so that’s something Denver has going for them. Also, I believe that this is Peyton’s last shot at winning a Super Bowl, and — while not a conspiracy theorist, haha — I reckon the NFL is going to want to see him go out on top. Otherwise there will always be the “greatest ‘regular season’ QB of all time” qualifiers and the “Eli won more Super Bowls” chatter.

#3 “[Peyton Manning] has put up HUGE numbers this season. He’ll have no problem against Seattle.”

No argument about Peyton’s numbers….but those numbers have been at the expense of sub-average defenses. If going by the NFL stats that I’m going off of (yds allowed/game), Denver’s defensive rank (#19) means that, of the 18 games played thus far in the season, to this point, the VAST majority (13) of the defenses that the Broncos have faced were worse than them: Colts (#20); Raiders – twice (#22); Chargers – thrice (#23); Chiefs – twice (#24); Patriots – twice (#26); Jags (#T-27); Eagles (#29); and Cowboys (#32).

The other 5 games that were higher ranked?: Texans (#7); Giants (#8); Ravens (#12); Titans (#14); and Redskins (#18). What do all five of these teams have in common? None of them were above .500 this year; which is indicative that, despite having above average defenses, there were definitely issues with these teams. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are the #1 defense across the board, I believe.

Speaking of the Seahawks, their offense has, indeed, struggled as of late, but here is why: they play against good-to-great defenses… Panthers (#2); Saints – twice (#4); 49ers – thrice (#5); Cardinals – twice (#6); Texans (#7); Giants (#8); Titans (#14); Rams – twice (#15); and Buccs (#17)…. 14 games against defenses that allowed fewer yards per game than the Broncos’ defense….14 out of 18 games.

We are definitely going to learn a lot about Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl, because they haven’t played against a defense as good as Seattle’s; not even nearly-as-good as what they’ll face against Seattle. Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense has been struggling as of late, but against vastly superior defenses than what they’ll see from Denver.

Personally, I’d take Marshawn Lynch against a below average defense – the man put up over 1,200 yards this season against some of the best defenses in the League. I don’t think he’ll have any problems getting yards against the Broncos’ defense.

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That will do it for this first installment. If you have anything that you want to ask my opinions or thoughts on, I’d be happy to field them. Very excited for the conclusion of the NFL season, and then getting back to my Madden franchise to score me my football fix during the off-season.

-Ryan.

01/26/2014

NFL (Belated) Recap: Conference Championships

I know, I know – I am way behind on this post. Truth be told, I made the (classic) mistake of working on several different posts simultaneously and none of them got finished. However, now that I’m on my stay-cation for the Super Bowl, all I have is time. That said, here is my belated recap of the Conference Championships from last weekend.

I’ll get right to it: I didn’t watch a down of the AFC Championship – to me, the NFC is the vastly superior conference and so that game was much more important to me (especially with my beloved 49ers playing in it, for the third straight year). That said, I did have some thoughts on the AFC title game and I’ll get to those now:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Patriots at Broncos

I didn’t watch the AFC Championship for two reasons, really: 1) I don’t get CBS very well at my house*, so I don’t typically watch the AFC games in general; and 2) I figured that the ragtag Patriots would have to run out of steam eventually….and then they finally did. I think that the Broncos are probably the best team in the AFC…but I wouldn’t put them in the Top 5 of the NFL, though. (Yes, I do not believe in the Broncos against the NFC’s best.)

The only highlight I remember seeing from this game, though, was the hit that Welker did on Talib that took him out of the game. Was he intentionally trying to hurt him? No, I don’t think so; but he sure wasn’t running a route or any football-related activity. His job on that play was to take him out of the play….and he ended up taking him out of the game instead. I didn’t like it, regardless. I don’t care for the Patriots but I didn’t like it. Was it the “worst play” I’d ever seen – as Belichick stated – I don’t think so, but I do think it was illegal and in poor spirit. Setting a pick is part of the game, now, I get that, but you should do so while also making a football-related move. From what I recall, Welker turned his side/shoulder and sort of threw himself into Talib. I didn’t like it.

Well, I’m not too worried about it because I don’t think the Broncos have a chance against the Seahawks, unless the NFL steps in and starts calling anything and everything on the Seahawks’ defense (which, they very well could; their defense is physical and quite aggressive. Not maliciously so, but they make a lot of contact after 5yds, they hold at the top of routes, and so forth — however, the officiating is so willy-nilly that it’s probably only called 30% of the time).

*I don’t watch a lot of TV – mostly just football. Ergo, I don’t mess with Comcast for TV and just gamble with my antenna and converter. Downside? I only get FOX and NBC – of channels that I’d normally watch – with any considerable consistency. Upside? Those are, usually, the networks that have the games that I enjoy watching anyways.

That said, the Broncos won the AFC – as many predicted – and now we head onto the NFC….

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 49ers at Seahawks

Preparing to enter a communicative black out. I may be unresponsive, don't take it personally. #GoNiners

— Ryan Henley (@ryanhenley) January 19, 2014

Yeah, and a communicative black out I was in for that game – with the exception of occasional texts from my brother, and then halftime discussions with others. But I was refusing to be on Facebook or Twitter, had any of my Seahawks friends texted, I would have ignored them, haha — I was shut in at my place, focused on the game. It was a great game that, once again, left me wondering if Greg Roman, our Offensive Coordinator, is holding us back – but more on that later.

I know that the Seahawks fans will get riled up when I say this but: I think that we were better than them and that we let that one slip away.

I agree with Bill Simmons (on his BS Report) that us and the Seahawks are probably 1a and 1b in the NFL. That said, we can’t turn the ball over 3 times in the 4th quarter and expect to win that game. I think that we put the “12th Man” to bed, finally, and made it what it should have been: a game between two great teams that are eerily similar in play style and build. It was a game that came down to the areas that I mentioned in my prediction: who won the line of scrimmage, and who won the big plays. I think that we won the former but they won the latter.

I heard/read about some people blaming the officiating for our loss, but that is nonsense. Was the officiating suspect at times? Of course. I think that erroneous “running into the kicker” should have been a “roughing” penalty — that would have given us the automatic first down — because the Seahawks player rolled into Lee’s planted leg; which is the definition for “roughing”. I believe that it was on that ensuing drive that the Seahawks scored one of their TDs, and so, yeah, you could say that ended up being a big play that the officiating crew got wrong. However, I’m not making that the excuse. The officiating had been wildly inconsistent throughout the season and post-season and so if anyone was thinking that there weren’t going to be any missed calls and that it was going to get called correctly, they were foolish. Plain and simple.

In the Green Bay game, they were letting just about anything fly – so long as it wasn’t offside or false start – but Crabtree got mugged in the end zone on a would-be TD catch, feet away from the official: no flag. We then started holding their guys: no flags. Rodgers escaped a sack where we had two guys making contact with him, but one of their lineman grabbed and pulled our guy off, and Rodgers maneuvered free: no flag. Then in Carolina, the Panthers’ secondary was getting called for everything in the first half — notably, unsportsmanlike conduct and head-butting — meanwhile, Boldin was allowed to keep talking and gave (at least) one head-butt that was not penalized. So, the officiating was all over the place this post-season. I was expecting us to get screwed on some calls, my hope was that – despite the bad calls – that we would be in a position to win the game at the end…. and we were….. twice. And we missed both times.

That’s why I don’t blame the officiating. Were some calls wrong? I think so. Did they have an impact on the game? Certainly. But there are hundreds of “what ifs” in every game, so it’s senseless to get hung up on that. The bottom line is that, despite the setbacks and “what ifs”, we were down 3 points with the ball – threw a pick*. Then down 6 points with the ball, and drove inside their 20, with 2 time outs, and 30 seconds on the game clock – and we turned it over, again. That loss is on us and us alone.

*After watching the post-game interview with Kaepernick, that now makes sense. At the time, I was thinking: “Who the (expletive) was he throwing to?! Did he not see that guy standing right there?!?!” But Kaepernick said, quite frankly, he thought that he could get it over him. Which, I can’t critique too much, because that sort of play has a surprisingly high success rate for us. And, on the ensuing drive, he pulled it off and hit Crabtree on the sideline, over the defender’s outstretched fingers. Do I like it, though? Of course not. I don’t think that the reward is worth the risk, however, I can see why he threw it now, since he has confidence converting that throw more often than not. I reckon he’ll get better; he’s still a young QB after all.

However, it does give some optimism to playing there in the future because, really, we played a great game – save for one miscue that sealed our defeat. We can talk about Kaepernick’s other pick or the sack-fumble they got on us, but we overcame both of those – it was that final miscue that did us in. They played a great game, and they made the big plays that they needed to make in order to win. That’s what it came down to. I don’t like the Seahawks, and I hope and pray that the Broncos can beat them (haha), but I respect them.

That said, Go Niners!

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As stated, I’m off all this week for the Super Bowl and so I’ll be putting together some more football-related posts before packing it away for the off-season. As always, thanks for reading,

-Ryan.

01/22/2014

NFL Thoughts: Things That I’m Tired of Hearing About

As I’m now into my post-season and there are only two teams to talk about, I am getting bombarded with reports, postings, memes, reaction videos, and articles — many, of which, that I’d like to ignore, but I like this game too much that I can’t just shut it off. So, I read them. Here are some of the things I’m seeing a lot right now that I’m really, really, really tired of hearing about….

“We lost because of the terrible officiating”

From the Faithful Niners Nation Facebook status:

F.N.N. Poll Question: Why do you think the NFL has been so quiet regarding the grievously bad calls in the NFC Championship Game? Why do you think they haven’t properly addressed the officiating in that Game????

Here’s why: in the end, it didn’t cost us the game. Our play cost us the game. Was the officiating bad? I think so. For one, that “running into the kicker” should have been “roughing” and gotten us the automatic first down — he went into Lee’s planted leg! — blown call, and, I believe, the Hawks went on to score on that drive. However, when we have the ball down by 3 (then throw a bad pick), and then down by 6, with all of our timeouts and plenty of time on the clock, and we turn the ball over — that’s on us. That’s not on the officials. Despite the poor officiating in that game, we found ourselves in a position to win the game, and we didn’t do it.

Sherman didn’t commit any fouls on that play (that I saw) – it was just a bad play decision, in my opinion, for the situation; Sherman did what great players do – made a play on the ball – and it was tipped back to the trailing defender who secured the pick to seal the game. The officials have been inconsistent all season, and all throughout the post-season, so why would we expect anything different? The fact of the matter is that we got ourselves into a position to win the game and we blew it.

We didn’t need to go after Sherman on that play: we were moving the ball very well up to that point, armed with 2 time outs, with 30 seconds on the clock, and inside their 20 – there was no reason to a) try for the game-winner right there; b) to try it on a fade route against the best pass-covering secondary in the League; and c) try it against their best player. That’s a bad play, in my opinion. Sure, Kaepernick could have given it more of a chance by NOT staring at Crabtree the entire time, haha. If he looks left just once or twice, it may be enough to keep that trailing LB from being close enough to make a play on the tip. I still don’t think Crabtree makes that catch, but at least it’s maybe an incomplete pass instead of a game-sealing interception.

Our play calling is what cost us the game – not the officiating. The only thing that we had consistent success with, throughout the game, was Kaepernick on designed/improvised runs. If we get Kaepernick on the run, maybe he can hit Davis in the middle, or McDonald in the flat, maybe Gore out of the back field, or Boldin in the back of the end zone again, or make something happen with his feet. My point is that we made a bad play call; we gambled and we lost. So, let’s stop blaming the officiating for it.

“The Seahawks offense would be better if Percy Harvin was healthy”

I disagree. Percy Harvin brings nothing unique to their receiver corps. He’s no quicker/faster than Tate or Baldwin or Kearse (especially with the hip injury); he is no more athletic than those guys; no more reliable route-runner or play-maker than those guys – the only differences that Harvin brings to the table is that he is unreliable (in terms of health) and he gets paid waaaaaaay more than the rest of those guys. Now, I’m probably the biggest Percy Harvin hater – or, at least, the most vocal – but that was a bad signing by the Hawks. Had Harvin been like Boldin, for us, then that’s a different story, because none of our receivers are like Boldin: big, strong, physical. Thus, he brought something to our team. Harvin is just a more expensive, less reliable version of what you already have.

(Side Note: Oh, and I’m pretty sure that his “migraines” in Minnesota were bogus and that he quit on his team in one of the most cowardly ways possible; and I have no respect for that. Where are the people who were upset when Randy Moss said that he took plays off? I remember a big uproar about that, but at least he PLAYED. Harvin would cite migraines and sit out. How is that better?? How are people not upset about that?? Oh, because it’s something that he can’t control? Riiight. I guess we’ve discovered that the cure for migraines is winning football games. End Side Note)

The media SHOULD be talking about the loss of Sidney Rice. I don’t know how his name has not come up AT ALL during these talks as to why the Seahawks’ offense has been struggling, but it should. Unlike Harvin – who I don’t like, obviously, haha – Rice has been a contributor to their offense in the past, as well as in the first part of this season – before he was lost to injury.

“The 12th Man”

Can we finally put this to bed? It’s a gimmick now. My 49ers were not affected by the “12th Man” yesterday. The noise didn’t seem that bad (despite Fox busting out a nifty graphic to show the decibel level), we had ALL THREE of our timeouts heading into the final minutes, and I think that the Seahawks had more false starts, and pre-snap mishaps, than we did. I’m now officially tired of hearing about the “12th Man” and their impact on the game. It’s a stadium with a loud crowd.

As Kaepernick has gotten a few reps there, now, I’d be surprised if it was an issue in the future. His first visit, last season, definitely, he was rattled – you could tell by the look on his face. However, in Week 2, our struggles came from personnel mismatches – not so much the noise in the stands. And, this past weekend, as prior stated, I don’t think that the crowd had any impact on that game or our performance. We are two equally matched and excellent teams; whoever made the most mistakes was going to lose, and, on Sunday, we made more mistakes.

“Sherman is a punk/thug/classless/etc.”

Sherman is none of those. When I hear people complain about him it disappoints me but also makes me proud of him. I get why people don’t like him – he embodies the attributes of people you knew growing up (or that you played against in your day) that you hated to play because they were so good and they knew it…and wouldn’t let you forget it. He’s a smart guy and a smart player. Any trash-talker gets him and knows what he’s up to. He’s the kind of guy that is going to challenge you physically AND mentally. You can’t go up against a Richard Sherman if you don’t have the mentality to play his game. For him to be this effective with it is something that I respect. He’s a master of psychology in terms of getting into your head and making you forget about what you’re supposed to be doing.

Hearing people attacking the man’s character, though, and talking about him as a person is disappointing. We, as a culture, are so soft now, it’s ridiculous. We are waaaay too easily offended by nonsense. I don’t know if he has “apologized” for his “outburst,” but I hope that he doesn’t. For one, that irritates me when people read a scripted apology that is meaningless (what’s the point?); and, secondly, he didn’t do anything wrong or anything that warrants an apology.

He said that he was the best corner in the League – that’s true; I can’t name anyone who is better. He said Crabtree was talking trash to him – while I didn’t see it, I am very confident that is true, too, hahaha. And, he just made a great play – against Crabtree – that won the game, which, I believe, is what he was referring to with the “if you open your mouth, I’ll shut it right quick” part. All very true statements. From what I found online, here is what he said:

Well I’m the best corner in the game! When you try me with a sorry receiver like Crabtreee that’s the result you’re gonna get! Don’t you ever talk about me!…Don’t you open your mouth about the best or imma shut it for you real quick! L-O-B!

He didn’t swear or use profanity. He didn’t use any racial epithets. There’s nothing offensive in the words that he said, as far as I’m concerned. Sure, he was screaming all of this but they had just won the game and are GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!!! How jacked on adrenaline and emotion would you be right there?? I know that, last year when we won, I was jumping for a solid 4-5 minutes after we beat Atlanta to secure our Super Bowl berth…. and I had NO impact in that game whatsoever, haha. People need to calm down. The only thing that gives power to the trash-talker is letting the talk affect you. I know this – I’m a prolific trash-talker. 😉

“Russell Wilson would be so much better with good receivers”

I really don’t know why people don’t give their receivers any respect. Is it just because they are not household names across the nation? Because, I’ll tell you what, I’ve seen these guys play in a handful of games and THEY MAKE PLAYS. Sure, they may not have big contracts or the recognizable names (maybe Tate from college), but they do what you want your receivers to do: they make the plays when they need to. These guys are all capable of making tough catches – be it in the air when you’re going to get hit or tip-toed on the sideline.

Furthermore, I think that they make Russell Wilson look good. I don’t think Russell Wilson is as good as the media makes him out to be. Can he scramble? Yes. Can he run around in the pocket and evade a pass rush to buy time for his guys to get open? Yes…. even though he triggers holding penalties on his offensive line every time that he does it (they’re seldom called, though). But I don’t think he is a great QB. If he doesn’t have an arsenal of guys – like Tate, Rice (when he comes back), Baldwin, and Kearse – who have speed and athleticism, they cover up a lot of Russell Wilson’s mistakes, in my opinion. Wilson is a smart QB but I think that he is overrated.

Even though I hope that the Broncos win the Super Bowl (haha), I think that their receivers are going to finally get some much deserved respect – especially against Denver’s below-average defense. They’ve earned it.

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That’s what I have so far but it’s an eternity between now and the Super Bowl, so I’m sure that there will be more things that come up that incite my rage. Stay tuned!

-Ryan.

01/19/2014

NFL Picks: Conference Championship Games

If being the President ages a man 10yrs, the playoffs have to be worth at least 3yrs, right?

— Ryan Henley (@ryanhenley) January 14, 2014

I really meant that Tweet, too. I’ve been keeping it civil and quiet on the social media sites about the Conference Championship games this weekend — mostly due to superstition but also because I am trying not to think about it too much — but I have been talking with one of my good buddies (a Seahawks fan, who lives in Salt Lake City) and it’s definitely stressful, tense times right now. Apparently, he is calling his dad (back in the Seattle-area) regularly just to make sure that the old man is hanging in there. This is, certainly, the most highly anticipated and uncertain game that we have played all season. On both sides. But I’ll get more to the game in a few moments.

To continue, quickly, with how this week is affecting my health: I hope that the 49ers are really good again when I am an old man. There’s a fairly good chance that, if so, the playoffs may literally cause my death. I don’t pretend to play it off as normal (but maybe it is?) to be this high strung over a game, but part of me wishes that I was dating or married to a nurse/doctor so that she could take my vitals during the game — preferably, hooking me up to a machine that would track everything automatically. The upside? I think it would be a fascinating revelation. The downside? It may trigger talks of lifestyle changes.

So, I’m just going to try to not think about it.

For anyone that was using my picks in the regular season for gambling purposes, you were in good hands — I did pretty well, I’d say — but, by now, I hope you’ve figured out that my playoff strategy is not so much about picking winners as much as it is about me trying (desperately, at times) to will the favor of the Football Gods – of whom I put my faith and trust in; Their wisdom and grace cannot be argued. That said, here are my picks for the Conference Championships:

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Quick recap – and I mean that, with the AFC games, because I didn’t watch them – I had the score alert going for the Patriots-Colts game and I’m not entirely sure what happened, but it seemed like it was a close game late in the 3rd quarter, then I went to put clothes away (or something) and came back to a rout. It was bizarre. Oddly, the opposite happened in the Broncos-Chargers game, where the Broncos were shutting out the Chargers (I think either 17-0, 24-0), and so I decided to go out to dinner. When I got to Stanford’s (the Official Restaurant of Ryan Henley), though, it was suddenly a 7-point game. The Broncos ended up holding on for the 7-point win, but that was really weird. And, so, we have the stage set for the AFC Championship: Tom Brady & the rag-tag-Patriots-who-just-keep-on-winning, versus Peyton Manning & the Broncos.

I need the Patriots to win. It is not a “want”, it is a “need”. However misguided or uninformed I may be, but I believe that the last hurdle in my hopeful trip to the Super Bowl this year can only occur if the Broncos lose. That said, I need the Patriots to win…and I think that they will.

I have to tip my hat to the Patriots organization for what they have done this season. I remember, quite confidently, when Gronk was lost for the season, seeing their remaining receiving corps that consisted of the injury-prone Amendola and that one little guy annnnnd….that was it… I declared that their season was done. When you consider just how many players the Patriots have lost since last spring, they shouldn’t be in the playoffs let alone in the Conference Championship game, fresh off of a thumping of the Colts in the Divisional Round. But, here they are.

I think that they can/will beat Denver on Sunday because they have proven that they are versatile and effective (thus far) in their versatility. I think that the Patriots have shown that they can move the ball with great success on the ground, but then also have Brady’s ability to make plays through the air, as well. Conversely, I still see the Broncos’ offense as being 80% Peyton Manning…. but that could be due more to the fact he was running up the score on teams to get the single-season records…. regardless, I think it will be easier for the Patriots to beat the Broncos than the Broncos to beat the Patriots.

Also, the Patriots are smart and incredibly well-coached, and while Manning has moved to Denver, he hasn’t changed too much from the Indy days, and so he is a familiar foe to the Patriots’ organization; and they know how to beat him.

I see this as a tale of two halves: with the first half being dominated by the Broncos, and the second half being dominated by the Patriots.

If I had to guess, I think that the Broncos’ offense will come out of the gates hot and probably jump out to a big lead. But I think that the Patriots will grind the game, run the ball, short passes, and move the chains, and get some scores at the end of long drives. It may be FGs instead of touchdowns, even; but I think that they will put up some points. I think that the Broncos will be up big at the half (i.e. 24-9, 24-10), BUT getting killed in the time of possession.

The second half, I think that the Broncos’ already-questionable-defense will collapse from being on the field too long. The Patriots will then be able to continue to move the chains BUT now finish these drives off with touchdowns. With a fully rested defense in the 4th quarter, I think the Patriots’ defense will be able to get some stops (or turnovers), and what looked like a very one-sided game heading into the half, will get very tense heading into the final few minutes of the game. Just as Denver’s defense let them down last year against the Ravens, I anticipate that they will be gassed by the end of the game, and whether Manning makes a near-signature mistake late in the game, or the Patriots just get the ball last with an opportunity to win, I think they make that final play to win the game.

I’m taking the Patriots in this game, final score: 38-34.

And now, the game that I am, obviously, much more intently focused upon…

NFC Championship: 49ers at Seahawks

I want to first address something quick that I have heard and read from the media (who obviously don’t commit as much attention to these two teams as I do, haha): Yes, the Seahawks’ offense has looked shaky the last month or so, but they will show up on Sunday. Not because their offense is anything great, or that our defense is overrated, but, rather, because there is so much familiarity between us and so much pride at stake. You can have a bad outing against the Saints – that doesn’t really mean anything (so long as you win the game) since you may not play them again for a couple of years. But, against a division rival? You show up for that game. You’re going to see them twice next year, and it could be an oft talked about plot line for the future match-ups. Trust me, I know; I am so tired of the “49ers can’t play in Seattle” nonsense.

*Defensive Side Note (haha): Last year, yes, we got beat up bad. We had that huge emotional roller coaster win at New England, where we had lost Justin Smith to injury (and, thus, our pass rush); we then lost Manningham, and then Davis; and so we fell apart in that game. PLUS, we didn’t need to have that win. What I mean by that is that, heading into the final 3 games of the season — @ Patriots, @ Seahawks, Cardinals — we had to win 2 of those final 3 in order to win the division and secure the #2 seed. It didn’t matter if it was Patriots/Seahawks, or Seahawks/Cardinals, or Patriots/Cardinals – we just had to win 2 of the final 3. When that game got out of hand – and it got out of hand quick, I admit – I think we packed in and focused on winning in Week 17 (which we did) and the outcome was the same.

This year, however, in Week 2, we got beat but it was by no means a repeat of last year. Considering our starting WRs were Boldin (legit) and Kyle Williams (no longer on the team), and Davis left the game with a hamstring injury, and we still were able to keep it close through 3 full quarters (it was 12-3 heading into the 4th), I was impressed. Kaepernick didn’t have that wide-eyed-“what-the-hell-is-going-on?”-look like he did last December. From what I recall, he didn’t seem to have as much trouble getting the ball snapped (or no more so than usual- sometimes I think that he is an adrenaline-junky or something, who prefers to operate on 1 timeout-pressure for the most of the 2nd half), so it didn’t feel as though the crowd bothered him as much this year. He did, however, make some bad mistakes that they capitalized on, but I don’t fault him too much for that because the Seahawks’ defense (which is really good, in case you didn’t know) had shut down our running game, and dared us to throw. So, if we had any chance of winning that game – like it or not – it was going to come from Kaepernick making plays, and, at times, forcing passes. That’s how it goes.

Even looking at the stats from Week 2 — and not looking at two things: Score and turnovers — that game would have looked like a very even game. Which it should, because we are very evenly matched teams. However, we turned the ball over, I believe, 5 times in total, with one taking 3-7 points off the board, and then 2-3 of the others deep in our own territory that led directly to scores. It was a one-sided game in terms of scoring, but even game in terms of talent and production. I’ll take it. End Defensive Side Note*

Now, I’ve been saying it all week with co-workers, friendly correspondences, strangers who chat me up for conversation on the topic, and I firmly believe that this game is unpredictable. It really is.

It is like playing your clone: both teams like to run the ball (more so than any other teams in the League); both really bank their success on their defense (Seattle’s secondary being the best in the League, and I’d say that our front 7 is best front 7 in the League); both of our offenses can get stalled for long stretches of time, but then make big plays when needed. We know everything that the Seahawks like to do (on both sides of the ball), and they know everything that we like to do, in return. I don’t anticipate many surprises in this game, for that very reason: we know each other so incredibly well.

I think there are two things that win this game, and it’s only a matter who executes them better:

1) Winning the Line of Scrimmage: Because both of our offenses are so committed to setting up the run, whoever has the better offensive line performance has a good shot at winning. The Seahawks, I’d say, DESPERATELY need Lynch to have a productive day (which he usually does; I believe I read, in his career, he averages 90+ yds/game in the playoffs) because I don’t think Russell Wilson will be able to win this game on his own. If the Seahawks’ defensive front is the dominant performer – shutting the running game down, keeping Kaepernick in the pocket – then I think that it gives them an edge because their secondary is difficult to play against.

For us, I think that if our offensive line can be the better performers and make holes for Gore/Hunter, then it will give us the ability to move the ball without having to throw against that stingy defense. The way to beat the Seahawks’ defense is to keep them on the field and run them out of gas, then hope you can make a big play late in the game. Defensively, if our front 7 is able to slow down Lynch, pressure and contain Wilson, and force a lot of punts, then I think that we will be in good shape.

2) Winning the “Big Play” Battle: If Lynch can break off a monster TD run, or Tate/Kearse/Baldwin makes an acrobatic catch and turns it into a quick, electrifying score, or even a defensive turnover that leads to points – the Seahawks have a good shot at winning this game. If Kaepernick can escape the pocket and have a big run/score, or Frank Gore has a big game, or Boldin/Crabtree/Patton have big games, I think that we can win this game. But, because of how defensively-focused we both are, I don’t think that there will be a lot of “big plays” in this game, thus, whoever wins that battle, I think likely wins the game. The Seahawks’ have the advantage in this game simply because their offense tends to have more big plays than ours does – save for a Kaepernick run. We’re not an explosive offense, really. ESPECIALLY against this secondary. But, that’s okay, if we can have just big runs or big YAC performances from Boldin/Crabtree/Patton, then that should suffice.

On a scale of 1-to-10, my confidence of our victory is a 4.5/5. The rationale being that I firmly believe that we are the two best teams in the League and are near-mirror images of each other that, talent wise, both of us are capable of winning this game. There’s a lot of talk about the noise but when we play there once a year, it’s not something that impacts us as much as, say, New Orleans or other teams. We know what to expect. Is it tougher than playing in other places? Sure, but I don’t feel as though the crowd noise impacted the game too much in Week 2 – it was more of the rain… it seemed as though our equipment people weren’t prepared for wet conditions, as I recall a lot of plays where we were slipping on cuts and so forth.

The 4.5 is my gut feeling that we have had a long road trip, with really, the last 5 games being “must win” mode/playoff intensity:

The road game against a physical, tough Buccs team – on the road – was one we needed to win to stay ahead in the Wild Card chase.

The emotional home finale vs. Atlanta, that was a tough game for us, was one we needed to secure the playoff berth.

Then we had the physical road game vs. Arizona, where they were playing hard for an outside shot of being the 6th seed…and we, inexplicably, played our starters for the WHOLE game – a move that I disagreed with, personally.

Then we had the bitter cold game vs. the Packers and a fully rested and healthy Aaron Rodgers – who I do believe is, right now, the best QB in the League.

Then flew to Carolina for the Divisional game against their physical team. And, now, we find ourselves going to Seattle to face another talented, physical team.

I imagine that our guys have to be tired. Riding an 8-win streak is tough enough, but when the latter half of that streak includes some very good teams, and many of which being on the road, it makes it even more wearing, I imagine. I think that we can hold up but I think it is worth noting, so that is why I say 4.5/5 is where my confidence is at.

I hope that it is the type of game that I’ve billed it to be, and – win or lose – that there is no controversy. No one wants to walk away from this game thinking that they got cheated out of the win. I think both of us have so much pride in ourselves that we want the outcome to be untainted. All of that said, I am breaking precedent and NOT making a pick. I believe that this game is too close to be predictable – I think that we are the better team right now, but I think that they are good enough to win this game, for sure. I will be pulling for my 49ers, of course, but this is a toss-up. No pick. Final score: 23-21.

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That will do it. I am going to try and get some sleep now, but we’ll see how successful I am.

-Ryan.

01/11/2014

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Salutations Good People,

Tonight, I am perched, here, on the edge of my seat partly because of excitement for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs….and partially because Spaz has taken over the back half of the seat…and is not interested in moving. It is that same opposition that my 49ers are likely to see in Carolina on Sunday, against Spaz’s Carolina Panthers. (By the way, in Spaz’s lifetime, the 49ers have never beaten the Panthers….)

When going by wins-and-losses, I got killed last weekend (1-3). On the bright side, that just means that I have areas to improve upon this week, and that is exactly what I plan to do:

Divisional Round Picks

Saints @ Seahawks

Naturally, I like the Seahawks in this game (and I wagered big on it, in fact). Was 8.5-month-ban excessive? Perhaps, but that’s how confident I am feeling in this game. And here’s why: the Saints cannot compete with Seattle on the road. Bottom line.

It’s not a critique of the Saints’ talent or team as much as it is the incredible mismatch that the Seahawks present to them. I’ve beat that drum for most of the week, much to the ire of my Saints fans friends, I’m sure, but the Seahawks are a terrible match-up for them on both sides of the ball. As it pertains to this game, though, the mismatch is against the Saints’ offense, as the Seahawks have the best secondary/pass defense in the League – which is bad news if a big part of your offensive success is coming through the air (like the Drew Brees-led Saints).

The Seahawks are beatable in Seattle, but the way you beat them is by a balanced attack on offense, not turning the ball over/making mistakes, and having a great defense that can shut the Hawks’ offense down — which gives you a good shot at making bigger plays against their defense later in the game, if you’ve successfully kept them on the field for most of it. The Saints lack 2 of those 3 weapons, and the turnover piece is something Brees does a lot more outside (and on the road) than he does inside and in New Orleans.

Now, people are quick to say (poor imitation voice): “Why are you giving so much credit to the Seahawks? You don’t even like them!“, and, of course, that is true. I don’t like the Seahawks, but I do respect them; and when I see them play at least twice a year (vs. my 49ers, but then also a few games here and there because I’m in their TV market….sadly), I have a pretty good feeling for what is realistic. Seattle is not a perfect team; no team is perfect. But their vulnerabilities are protected because they are, also, not a strong part of the Saints’ game.

Contrary to popular belief: I don’t hate the Saints, I just don’t think that they have a chance in this game. Can they make it competitive? Maybe. But Seattle is the more talented team, the more physical team, and the home team (against a team, in the Saints, where home vs. away really does matter) — and, again, the mismatch that no amount of scheme or game-planning can address at this point in the season. It’s a mismatch of team identity. The Seahawks’ defensive front is good enough to get stops and get Drew Brees off the field. Meanwhile, the Saints defense, I don’t think, will be able to contain Wilson in the pocket – and, once he gets out, then the Saints secondary, I believe, will give up big plays – be it Wilson running for chunks of yards here or there, or throwing some of his (really bad) passes that play off the athletic ability of his receivers. If the Saints get down big again in the 1st quarter, the game is over. Once the Saints become one-dimensional and dependent on throwing the ball, they play right into Seattle’s strengths, and that is the end of the game.

It likely won’t be a 34-7 game again because the season is on the line and so there is no advantage in “saving yourself for next week” (which the Saints probably did on Monday Night Football); and the Saints, being playoff veterans, know this and will play accordingly. That said, all of the heart, game-planning, and playoff experience in the world cannot address the mismatches that are presented in this game. It may not be a blow out, again, but I think Seattle by 12, at the least, is reasonable. If I had to guess a final score, I’d say 24-10, but with the game being much more one-sided than the score indicates. Seahawks over Saints; final score: 24-10.

Colts @ Patriots-

I know that the Colts performed the 2nd-largest comeback win in NFL playoff history last weekend, but there should be some sort of asterisk attached, if they are going to boast about it — only if they are going to boast about it. Am I little sore about it? Sure. The Colts have screwed me a lot this season, and I make it no mystery that I am not a fan of theirs right now. As for the asterisk claim (which I’m mostly joking about), I say this because it was not the Chiefs having an epic collapse…well, it kind of was, but not in the traditional sense….but it was mostly, I believe, injury-related. It seemed like that the Chiefs – in addition to losing Charles on the 6th play of the game, and eventually their productive #2 back, and two of their defensive Pro Bowlers – were having guys go down with a variety of ailments all throughout the second half. Meanwhile, their offense kept things together as best they could, but their offense was never expected to be their saving grace – and that ended up being true.

Once they started losing Pro Bowlers on defense, though, their pass-rush slowed and their secondary got exposed. I know that feeling first hand. Last season, after Justin Smith went down, in New England, we didn’t get an adequate pass-rush back again for the rest of the season; and our secondary got picked apart. Same thing happened in Indy last weekend. That said, I don’t know if I trust Indy yet or not. And, Lord knows, they have screwed me over a lot this season. Was last weekend the last time?? We shall see.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have been able to win games that I didn’t think that they’d be able to win, especially, with their injuries to significant parts of their offense AND defense throughout the year. I readily admit that I have no solid pulse on the Patriots, as I haven’t seen them play this year – however, I’ve seen the Colts once (in full, vs. my 49ers) and then 3/4 vs. the Chiefs, and the end of their games against the Broncos and the Seahawks. Part of me thinks that what the Pats’ coaching staff and players have been able to do the last month or so, has been simply incredible. So incredible, in fact, that they can’t keep it up much longer. I am going to pick the Colts in this game for two reasons: 1) I’ve seen them play and they seem to play (and win) against the better teams that they face – it isn’t always pretty but they get the job done; and 2) either the Colts are going to win and not screw me over this week, OR they are going to lose and then I can take satisfaction in knowing that I don’t have to see them again until next season. Colts over Patriots; final score: 17-13….which is a very wild guess.

Onto Sunday’s games which, I think, are probably going to be the more exciting/interesting games to watch this weekend (and, yes, I am very biased in that regard)…

49ers @ Panthers-

This is a tough one. While I am wildly confident in the Seahawks beating the Saints, I am not as confident in this game. I certainly would not wager 8.5 months of football on it, that is for sure. That game last weekend in Green Bay was brutal. It was physical – the refs were “letting them play” – and it was incredibly cold, but we pulled off the win. The last time that we faced the Panthers, we lost 10-9 at home. However, this time around, we’ll have Crabtree playing – which helps spread out our offense, and, hopefully, can keep Davis and Reid from getting concussed (*fingers crossed in hope*). Also, I said so in a past posting (either a Picks or a Recap) but it feels as though we have been a better road team this year; our home games (save for a few against bad teams) have looked shaky. I can only imagine that it was because we got too comfortable, maybe? I’m not sure, but on the road, we have shown up more often than not. I think that we will show up on Sunday, as well.

The Panthers, though, are not a team that I am sleeping on. Had the Eagles won (like I thought/wanted), I would have put the Panthers in the driver’s seat for the NFC Championship, simply because they’d get to play the winner/survivor of a very physical game between us and Seattle. However, the Saints screwed that up, so I don’t think I have them in the driver’s seat, anymore. Can they beat us on Sunday? Sure. I don’t see why they can’t: they matched up against us well the last time, their defense is great (a really good defense), and Cam Newton can flip a switch and take a game over; it’s very plausible that they can win on Sunday.

However, I don’t think that they can beat us and Seattle in consecutive weeks. That is a lot of physicality to have to endure, especially under the spotlight and pressure of a championship game, and a Super Bowl berth on the line. If Steve Smith plays, that is big for them – last I read, he still wasn’t practicing; however, getting him healthy is much more important than getting him on the practice field, so I don’t read too much into that. It’s the playoffs: if he is able to play, he is going to play. If he doesn’t play, though, that could be big for us, as it’s always great to have your opposition be down a big weapon like Steve Smith.

I am going to give us the edge in this game, though, not out of disrespect to the Panthers but more so for what we have been able to build upon from our last meeting. Our defense held them to 10pts, so I think that we can probably replicate that performance. The last time, we were able to move the ball on the ground somewhat well (100+ yards by the team), so that is reassuring – especially with the added respect now for our passing game with Crabtree back, Boldin playing like an animal, Davis, and rookie Patton, I believe, has some potential to make splashes on Sunday. That’s really the area that we’ll need to see: our passing game was completely shut down as their defense was able to get to Kaepernick regularly, with sacks, pressure, and forced throws. I also don’t know what to expect from the Panthers with many of them making their playoff debut on Sunday. Sure, Newton has played in big college games, but he didn’t have a great game against us last time and so we will see if he has learned from that performance, or if we are in store for another defensive battle.

I wouldn’t wager anything on this game, but I’ll stick with my 49ers in a close one. 49ers over Panthers; by 3 points…27-24.

Chargers @ Broncos-

I’ll make this one very quick because I am a little tired and, frankly, I’m not sure what to expect from this game. I am going with the Chargers for one reason only: I believe the Broncos to be the lone obstacle standing between me and going to the Super Bowl. Not my 49ers, me personally – in attendance at the Super Bowl. Last year, my brother was able to get tickets and, even though my 49ers made it (…and he said he would take me if they did, but, instead, he took his wife… I’m not bitter, though…promise….) I didn’t get to go. Now, though, the wife is not going (Obstacle #1); my brother – and his best friend/Best Man at his wedding – is a Chiefs fan, and I could see myself getting bumped for their Chiefs Super Bowl, but now that the Chiefs are eliminated (Obstacle #2); I have already got cleared for the week before AND after the Super Bowl from work, so I can head east, literally, at any time, if necessary (Obstacle #3); the Super Bowl this year is in N. Jersey and outside (not some where warm and sexy like Florida, New Orleans, California, etc.), and so, really, you’re going to want to really be there in order to put up with those conditions (Obstacle #4); and, while not confirmed, I imagine that my brother’s ability to secure tickets this year banks on the Broncos not playing in it – again, it’s not confirmed but that is what my gut is telling me (Obstacle #5). *IF* the Broncos can lose – either this weekend or next weekend (I’m not picky) – I think that puts me in a favorable position. Furthermore, *IF* the 49ers can some how run the gauntlet and beat Green Bay, Carolina, AND Seattle, all on the road, in three consecutive games, then the Football Gods have to let me go, right? That would just be cruel.

So, quick recap: there are only two snippets that I have seen from the Chargers this year – their win in Denver a few weeks ago, and their needing OT to beat the Chiefs’ reserves in San Diego. Denver can put up a lot of points but, while Peyton gets really mad when it is brought up, it is mid-January in Denver, and if there is really going to be a Divisional Round upset this weekend, I think it is going to be in this game. Yes, I picked the Colts over the Patriots, but I think that the Patriots will probably win. I just picked the Colts because I am tired of them burning me, as prior stated. Chargers over Broncos; final score 27-21.

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That will do it for my picks for the Divisional Round. In the off-chance that the Saints win on Saturday, this will be my last Picks post until October. I am confident that the 8.5-month ban will not be initiated, though, for all of the reasons that I listed above. HOWEVER, if the unthinkable does, indeed, happen, I will write a farewell post as part of my agreement with the wager. I may even record a good-bye speech. I’ll try to have fun with it, just in case, because I will certainly miss this game, if I am banned from it for the next 8.5 months. Geez…8.5 months… that’s a long time. No, no…I’m confident that the Seahawks will handle their business. I’m obligated to never cheer for them, so any silent fist pumps will be in support of being able to watch, talk, and write about football between Saturday evening and October.

-Ryan.