Tagged: Redskins

NFL Week 1 Picks

Salutations Good People,

After many long months, I am back at my desk and getting ready to make my picks for the week.  Last year, I had the goal of 170 wins during the season…. and I fell juuuuust short (169 wins).   It really was just one bad week that I had last season that not only robbed me of my 170-win goal BUT robbed me of shattering it.  That said, Week 1 is always a little dicey simply because I really only pay attention to a few teams, and so, Week 1, is my first opportunity to sit down and see what the rest of the League is offering.  For those who didn’t follow my picks last year, I’m not a journalist and I am open with my biases; I’ll give my thoughts on the match-up where I feel inspired to, but, ultimately, I’m just picking who I think will win.  Usually, I’m right — however, I don’t gamble so what does my accuracy really matter?  It’s all for good fun.

Here are my picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Picks

Packers @ Seahawks –

We have gotten a fair dosing of the “Fail Mary” story in the past week, leading up to this game, but hopefully it is long past.  This game is a tough one.  “Fail Mary” aside, the Packers played well in Seattle the last time that they were up there; for it being the first game of the season, too, I reckon that everyone is healthy and ready to go (except for BJ Raji, but I hear that he may be more of a big name on the defense than a big factor… I don’t know, though; I don’t follow the Packers that closely).  It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers (even if up against a great pass-defense) and now that he has a reliable running game, as well, there’s nothing in me that thinks that the Packers do not have a chance at winning this game.  I think that they do have a chance.  That said, the NFC West has had the Packers’ number as of late, especially in exploiting the Packers’ often-porous defense — most notably with my beloved 49ers and Colin Kaepernick: the Packer Killer.  While I’m not comfortable with the pick, I’m going to go with the Seahawks at home, simply because I’d rather pick them and have them lose (and take the loss in my Picks) than I would picking the Packers and having them lose AND taking the loss in my Picks — then I’ve just screwed my night.  At least this way, I’ll have some silver lining at the end of the night…. but I’m not confident on this pick.  Seahawks over Packers.

Saints @ Falcons –

While I think that the Falcons will bounce back this year — sure, they may not have much of a running game and their defense is suspect, but they’ll have Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, and that has to be worth a few wins — I think that the Saints are going to win the division and also get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, on the NFC side of the coin.  With Graham happy, Brees having some weapons (and, I believe, he is recovered from his abdominal strain by now), plus they have reinforced their defense, I think that they will win this game.  I’m not sold on the Falcons whereas I am sold on the Saints.  Saints over Falcons.

Vikings @ Rams –

I think that the beginning of this season is going to be tough sledding for the Rams.  Losing Bradford like they did, when they did, and now having to build the offense around Shaun Hill is a bit of a challenge.  Sure, they have a good running game but Hill is the wild card; I don’t know what to expect from him.  Meanwhile, I see a lot of promise with the Vikings — I don’t think that they’ll make the playoffs this year but I think that they could turn some heads as the season goes along.  I think that, despite the tough predicament the Rams are in, I’ll go with the Rams in this game simply because their defense is one of the best; quietly one of the best.  They have a great pass-rush and if the Vikings are rolling with Cassel as their guy in Week 1, I like the Rams defense against him.  Rams over Vikings.

Browns @ Steelers –

I’m going Steelers.  Not because I have a lot of faith in the Steelers (even though Big Ben and Tomlin are due for a good season) but simply because Cleveland appears to be a circus right now; I have no faith in them.  Which is exactly how I like it. (Side Note: I put a curse on the city of Cleveland some 7yrs ago; so far, so good. End Side Note.)  Steelers over Browns.

Jags @ Eagles –

From the highlights that I saw from the preseason (as well as how they performed down the stretch last year), I think that the Jags may have a chance in the AFC this year.  By “have a chance” I mean that I think that they can put together a respectable season; maybe not playoff-bound but I think that they could be good enough to be a spoiler team for other teams that are on the post-season bubble.  That said, I think that the Eagles will win the NFC East this year (again) and I’ll take their fast-paced offense, at home, over the Jags.  Eagles over Jags.

Raiders @ Jets –

The Raiders appear to be a mess.  While the Jets may not be in a much better situation, I still think that they are better than the Raiders (with Smith or Vick) and, being at home, I am going to go with the Jets in this game.  Jets over Raiders.

Bengals @ Ravens –

This could be a fun game.  The Bengals, I think, have more talent than the Ravens — but the Bengals also tend to not perform well when I want them to, haha.  I have more questions about the Ravens, though, than I do the Bengals.  And so I’m going to ride with the Bengals in this game, with their defense, and that Andy Dalton usually performs well during the regular season….. but I’m not 100% confident on this pick.  Bengals over Ravens.

Bills @ Bears –

I’m going to go with the Bears in this game simply because I haven’t heard anything about the Bills’ defense.  Everything seems to be focused on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins (who may or may not be nursing a rib injury from the preseason).  Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense could be pretty explosive this season, and I think that could cause problems for the Bills.  I don’t have much faith in the Bears’ defense, either, but — if looking at two teams with unimpressive defenses — I’ll take the offense that is stocked with proven veterans over the youthful offense that is banking a lot on the production from a (potentially not 100% healthy) rookie WR.  Bears over Bills.

Redskins @ Texans –

The only football-related story that I have heard coming out of DC this summer is the questions surrounding if RGIII is going to be healthy to start the season.  I don’t follow them closely and so I haven’t heard much — one way or the other — with any great deal of confidence.  That said, being on the road and going up against a potentially great pass rush (in Watts and Clowney) does make me concerned for RGIII, especially if he does not have his mobility.  Unlike other “mobile” QBs, I don’t think that RGIII can play well without mobility; I think that is a much bigger part of his game than the other “mobile” QBs.   I have a lot of questions about the Texans’ offense (ex. I have no idea who their starting QB is going to be…but it doesn’t seem like they have a solid pick, either…and that’s never good)….but I’d say it’s almost on par with the amount of questions that I have on the Redskins’ defense.  Ergo, I’ll take the superior defense/pass rush and the home team:  Texans over Redskins.

Titans @ Chiefs –

Last season, as you may recall, I was big on the Chiefs.  They had been a terrible team in the recent pass…but consistently had 8 or so Pro Bowl players on their team…..so they had talent but lacked a reliable QB and solid coaching.  Then they got Reid and Alex Smith, addressing both of those areas…. and for the first half of the season they were making me look like a genius, haha. Even though they stumbled as the season progressed and, ultimately, got bit (with a vengeance) by the Injury Bug in that playoff game in Indy, I felt as though they lived up to my expectations.  This year, though, I’m not sure.  No one seems to be talking about them — everyone is occupied with the Broncos (obviously) and there’s a bit of buzz around the Chargers, I hear as well; but I don’t know why the Chiefs can’t be competitive.  If anything, given another year with the offense, Alex Smith and the rest of those pieces should be clicking better; their defense hasn’t changed all that much from last year, either, I don’t believe.   However, for as quiet as the Chiefs have been this off-season and preseason, the Titans have been quieter (in my world).  Ergo, I’ll stick with the home team in this one, simply because the Titans are not on my radar as a team to look out for in the AFC this season.  Chiefs over Titans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

I don’t follow the Dolphins, really, but I know that last year they had the whole media circus revolving Incognito and Martin, and that probably did have some impact on their performance.  Meanwhile, the Patriots had an incredibly mediocre roster of talent last year….and still won the division….and still made it to the AFC Championship game.  I don’t know if Gronk has been cleared to play (and how many games he will play this season; injury or re-injury seems inevitable) but I imagine that it’s Week 1 and the Patriots are as healthy as they’ll be, so I imagine that they will be able to get this win on the road.  Patriots over Dolphins.

Panthers @ Buccaneers –

The Panthers’ offense has me concerned.  Similar to the Bills, they seem to be relying a lot on young players on offense; really, just two young players on offense.  While I think that Cam Newton is better than EJ Manuel, I believe that Cam is still nursing a rib injury and his ankle may be a concern, plus is O-line is not a strength of the offense. Team that with the departure of Steve Smith and thus a rather unproven receiver corps, I don’t know what to think of their offense.  I reckon that their defense will still be a great defense so they do have that going for them.  Meanwhile, the Buccs have a new head coach, are removed from the QB distraction from last year, and I think could make progress this year within the division.  Because I have a few questions marks surrounding the Panthers’ offense right now, I’m going to stay with the home team and pick the Buccs, and then re-evaluate my opinion of the Panthers after I see them in action.  Buccs over Panthers.

49ers @ Cowboys –

For all of the talk about how my beloved 49ers are in shambles right now (and some media folks even writing them off this season), the word that I keep reading and hearing from players and coaches is that things are just fine; so I’ll trust them on that.  I think that the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the ball against us — passing defense is not our strength, especially when we’ll be without 2 of our best pass-pressure players (Aldon & Bowman), but who knows? Maybe our secondary will be better this year with the changes that we have made?  Regardless, the Cowboys’ defense is supposed to be one of the worst…..ever…..and so I imagine that our offense will be able to move the ball on them, as well.  In that case, I will take the more all-around-talented team and I hope to see some good performances from our younger players: namely, Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James.  49ers over Cowboys.

Colts @ Broncos –

The Colts tempt me in this game.  However, seeing how they needed the Injury Bug to strike KC in that playoff game last season in order to win, coupled with the fact that the Broncos are in full-on Super-Bowl-or-Bust mode right now (with their off-season spending spree), I don’t think that the Broncos are going to come out of the gates with a loss….at home.  My concerns with the Broncos’ veteran additions (and their ability to hold up for the whole season) is irrelevant in Week 1, so I’ll be taking the Broncos at home.  Broncos over Colts.

Giants @ Lions –

The Lions are one of the more talented teams in the League, in my opinion, and perhaps their late-season collapses were more the result of their coaching than of the players on the field? We’ll find out this year, as Jim Caldwell is the new head coach.  I wasn’t impressed with Caldwell when he was at the helm of the Colts but he took that talented team to the Super Bowl….where he was promptly out-coached and the Colts were out-played by the Saints.  That said, I don’t think that the Lions are Super Bowl-bound, but I think that they’ll make the post-season, sure.  Meanwhile, I don’t think that the Giants will do much this year and so I’ll stick with the more talented team, especially while at home in the season-opener.  Lions over Giants.

Chargers @ Cardinals –

I don’t know if I’ve bought into the hype of the Chargers or just have too many questions to back the Cardinals in this game, but in what little action I saw from the Chargers’ starters in their preseason game against us, they seem to be in a good place right now.  Rivers seems happy in the new system, he was making good decisions, high-percentage passes, and such an approach could be successful against the Cards since they lost Dockett and another defensive star on the line.  Patrick Peterson, I believe, is no longer handling punt return duties and we’ll see how the Honey Badger rebounds this season.  Ultimately, though, my questions with the Cards are with Carson Palmer: he hasn’t been the same since his knee got blown out in that playoff game as a Bengal and now, I believe, he is in his upper 30s and I expect his production to fall off this season — but will that drop off start to happen in Week 1? That is the question.   I haven’t made many bold picks this week so I’ll roll with the Chargers in this game and see what happens.  Chargers over Cardinals.

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We’ll see how Week 1 goes and I’ll recap it on Tuesday evening.

-Ryan.

NFL 2014 Predictions: The Seahawks Will Not Repeat (I Don’t Think So, At Least)

One of my friends on the Facebook was posting about his belief that the Seahawks would take a step back this year, meanwhile, the media is all over the Seahawks as being the best-looking team coming out of preseason.  Did they look impressive?  Sure, much like the University of Oregon, they do take pride in running up the score on either bad teams or in irrelevant games (like preseason); but that is aside from my point.

I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat as champions, this year, not because I don’t like them, or that I don’t respect them, or that I don’t think that they are a good team; none of those reasons.  I don’t think that they will repeat simply because of their schedule and, most importantly, their Bye Week.

Last year, the Seahawks got their rest for a post-season push in Week 12, and that always helps.  This year, though? They will be getting their rest in the month of September (Wk 4).  This means that they will have 3 straight months of football, from their Bye Week to the end of the regular season and, potentially, another month of post-season football in order to get in the position to repeat as champions.  That, though, is a very tall order.

Here is how I break down their schedule:

Pre-Bye Week, they have 3 Super Bowl contenders, in a lot of peoples’ minds: Packers, @ Chargers, then hosting the Broncos.  I don’t know if any of those games are slam-dunk victories for the Seahawks.  For as much as people are quick to talk about their home-field advantage, it is not as dominant as people believe it to be.  Yes, in the past 3 years they have only lost there once (last season vs. the Cardinals), but they have had some really close calls.  While I don’t think that it is likely that they lose back-to-back home games to start off the season, I would not be surprised if they lost one of them.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if they went into their bye week 3-0, either.  Best case scenario is 3-0, but if they go into their Bye Week 1-2 or 0-3, it could potentially sink their season.  Why? It’s a long season.

Coming out of their Bye Week, I think that they will have good success against the Redskins (in DC) and the Cowboys, at home.  But then they go on the road against the Rams and then to Carolina to play the Panthers; and while both of those teams may be in disarray on the offensive side of the ball, both teams possess big, physical defenses.  Last year, the Panthers held the Seahawks to under 2 TDs in Carolina (in an eventual loss), while the Rams held the Seahawks to negative yardage in the first quarter before eventually losing 14-9 — after failing on a 4th and Goal that would have won the game.  Can they win these games?  Possibly/probably, simply because their defense will be good enough to keep it close and, while the offense may get battered, I still think that they have enough to win the games.

They then come home for the Raiders and the Giants, which are games that I don’t think that they will struggle with.  And that is the last real ray of sunshine for the Seahawks in the regular season, in my opinion.

They then go on the road to Kansas City, and while I think that the Chiefs will take a step back this year, I also think that the Seahawks struggle on the road. Especially when going to a stadium that is equally loud, as Arrowhead can get.  The Seahawks are good enough to win this game but I think that it can wear on them.

They then return home to host the Cardinals (who beat them in Seattle in their last meeting) and while I’m not sold on the Cards’ offensive weapons, I think that their defense can give the Seahawks some problems.  They then play us 4 nights later on Thanksgiving night, where we will have Aldon Smith back (fresh), likely to have Bowman back healthy, and, even if McDonald is convicted on the domestic violence charge (court appearance is later this month), he will also likely be back from the 6-game suspension the League protocol would dictate.  Not to mention that we will have been just coming off of our Bye Week four weeks prior.

The Seahawks next travel to Philadelphia to play the fastest-paced team in the NFL.  Which, for a team that hasn’t had a week off in over 2 months, is probably going to be an added challenge.  I imagine that also playing outside in the potential cold/snow of Philadelphia could also be an added wrinkle that the Seahawks are not used to having to deal with.

From there, they fly back across the continent to host us (whereas we will have had a “road” game in Oakland), and we gave them a tough game the last time that we played in Seattle, and so I have no reason to think that we won’t bring them a challenge once again.

Before going on the road to play Arizona and their strong defense, and then finishing the regular season at home against the Rams’ strong defense.  That is 5 of their last 6 games against the NFC West, with that one other game being a cross-continental game against a very fast-paced offense.  It’ll be tough sledding, I reckon.

I think that the Seahawks are good enough to win a lot of these potentially close games — I think that they go 12-4 this season — BUT I don’t think that they get home-field advantage this year (I think that the post-season will go through New Orleans).  That said, while I think that they have enough to make it into the post-season, I don’t think that they will have enough left in the tank to win it all this year.  And that is why I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat this year.

-Ryan.

NFL Recap: Week 17

Salutations Good People,

Well, I fell just short of my goal.  I was eying a 170-win season, and needing what-I-thought-to-be-improbable 14-2 finish in order to secure that goal.  I finished today: 13-3.  13 & 3!!! –head back in frustrated pose–  Thus, I finish the regular season with a record of 169-87 (.660).

Here’s how it played out:

The Panthers held on to beat the Falcons, going to show that: a) division games are dicey; and b) the Falcons are a good team having a bad year.  The Panthers’ defense is also pretty good – legitimately kind of scary in the post-season, but I’m not quite sure what to expect from their offense, yet.  The Falcons almost stole this one, too, as Ryan was trying to communicate a blocking adjustment, when the center misfired the snap – taking the Falcons from their own 40-ish with 30 seconds to play (and down by 1pt), to pinning them deep in their own territory with a dozen clicks on the clock.  They had a good shot at winning that game, too.  The Panthers came through for me, though.  (1-0)

The Bengals beat the Ravens to stay undefeated at home and, also, eliminate the defending champions.  I was really banking on the Bengals’ home field advantage in this one when I made the pick, and I’m glad that they didn’t let me down.  I didn’t see much of anything from this game, though.  (2-0)

The Titans beat the Texans, so now the Texans will have the #1 overall pick in the Draft – just as I suspected.  I also did not watch this game, nor did I see much in the way of highlights, sooo….I don’t have much to say on this one, except: good job, Titans, keeping me undefeated to this point in the day.  (3-0)

The Colts creamed the Jaguars and got me to 4-0 on the day.  I was kind of surprised to have seen highlights from this game that showed Luck playing late in the game.  I guess they had to play until the Bengals won, but, still, they shouldn’t have had much problems with the Jags – I wouldn’t have risked Luck.  (4-0)

The Jets shut down the Dolphins, and this one really upset me.  After the poor performance the Dolphins displayed last week on the road, in Buffalo, I figured that, surely, with their playoff hopes on the line, that they would come out to play — ESPECIALLY at home — and they disappointed me again.  The Dolphins may, now, hold the record this season for costing me more wins than any other team.  It used to be the Colts but I think that the Dolphins may have taken the crown, with their skid to end the season.  I’ll have to check my records.  That got me my first loss of the day, and I won’t forget this, Miami.  (4-1)

The Vikings edged the Lions in a game that I was really 50/50 on.  I didn’t (and don’t) like either of these teams, but I gave the pick to the Vikings simply because they were at home, and that may have been the difference-maker in this 1pt win. The Lions are a mess.  I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team with more opportunities to win the division and then fail to do so than the 2013 Lions.  (5-1)

The Giants put the Redskins out of their misery in a game that I, thankfully, was unable to watch.  I don’t recall seeing highlights from this game; only the imagery of Coach Shanahan on the side lines looking like Mike Shanahan always looks, and the speculation of if he’s getting fired at his meeting with management in the morning.  Hey, at least the Redskins will have a really good draft pick….oh…wait….  (6-1)

The Steelers beat the Browns, which did not surprise me.  What did surprise me, though, was that with their victory, and the losses from Baltimore and Miami, they were leading the race for the Wild Card at the time of victory.  To think, this Steelers team started out, I believe, 0-5 and, after winning their game, they were leading for the final Wild Card spot.  Wild.  (7-1)

The Packers beat the Bears, in one of those ways that leaves you just shaking your head in disappointment.  I didn’t start watching this game until it got towards the end of the 4th quarter, but, from what I am told, is that Rodgers was playing well.  Regardless, when you can hold the Packers’ offense to three 4th downs on one possession, and allow them to convert on ALL three of them…that says something about your defense.  Plus, the final one, the 4th & 8 that they got beat bad by Cobb for the touch down was ridiculous — I guess they really stuck to the “& 8” part of the statement.  I was hoping that the Bears could have pulled out this win only because they do not look like a good team.  They and Dallas were the two teams that, I think, the NFC was hoping would make it: both are very vulnerable and probably the most beatable of the NFC representatives.  I still think that the Packers have vulnerabilities that they are not able to address in the post-season to afford them the opportunity to go deep into the playoffs, but they are definitely a more dangerous team than the Bears.  (7-2)

The Broncos beat up on the Raiders – no surprise there.  And, from what I saw from the highlights, apparently Peyton Manning set more single-season records, and the 2013 Broncos are the highest scoring, single-season offense in NFL history.  Congrats.  It’s one of those things, though, that doesn’t matter if/when you lose in the Divisional Round of the playoffs – which may happen to them, again.  There was talk that their defense played well today and so, maybe, they will be able to piece it together for the next month.  There was also commentator talk about how no defense in the AFC can stop the Broncos’ offense, but I’m not sure that is true.  The Chargers are in the playoffs, now, and they beat the Broncos in Denver a few weeks ago.  I still think that the Chiefs have the ability to pull some upsets – and I will continue toting them as my AFC Champions prediction until they are eliminated.  Anyway, it is kind of weird how negative the Patriots were viewed when they were setting the record a few years back, but that the Broncos have universal support for running up the score on a crappy Raiders team at the end of the season, solely for the purpose of setting a record.  I don’t like that, but, hey, the Broncos got me the win on the week.  (8-2)

The Patriots beat the Bills and locked up the 2-seed.  I only saw the highlights from this game – mostly Blount breaking off some big runs.  I don’t know what to make of the Patriots going into the post-season.  They’ve lost a lot of key personnel this season…but they keep winning, and, most importantly, winning against teams with something to play for.  Well, not the Bills this week, but last week, going on the road to Baltimore – a team that has provided them some really close finishes over the years – and just dominating them.  I didn’t see that coming.  Especially, since the Ravens really needed that game.  So yeah, I’m not sure what to make of the Patriots going into the post-season, so that will be interesting, for sure.  (9-2)

The Saints dominated the Buccs, which did not surprise most, I reckon.  The Saints in the Superdome are a much better team than on the road, AND, with how close our game with the Cardinals was going, it was not something that they could afford to let up on.  They handled business and got the win.  Although, since Carolina won, they now have the pleasure of going on the road next weekend.  Will they be one-and-done? I’ll get to my playoff predictions later in the week.  😉  (10-2)

My 49ers outlasted the Cardinals in Arizona, and while this will go down as the loss that ended my 170-win dream, I still blame the Dolphins and the Bears more.  And, to be fair, I didn’t think that we would play our starters for the ENTIRE game.  I wasn’t pleased with the game-management, in that respect.  Once it became quite obvious, in the Seattle game, that the Rams were not going to be able to pull an upset, I would have started pulling the stars out.  The game became meaningless to us, in my opinion, and was, officially, more of a risk than a reward to have the stars in the game.  I still would have liked to have a blend of back-ups in there so that they could get some game experience against a really good team.  The only two positives that I take from this game is: 1) we have won 6-straight now, and so that sort of momentum (if only in the minds of the players) is always good to have; and 2) no one got injured or excessively beaten up, like I suspected could have happened.

Some will say – my friends included – that winning was important to get the 5-seed so then we won’t have to play Seattle until the Championship game; I say: nonsense.  I want to play them in the Divisional Round.  I firmly believe that we can play, and win, anywhere – we are a solid team, with talent at almost every position. HOWEVER, Seattle will be a tough game because: 1) they’re a good team; 2) the familiarity between us; 3) their physicality; and 4) the emotion that comes with that game, being division rivals.  I would much rather play one game on the road and then go to Seattle, than play one game on the road, then play a very physical/talented Carolina team (presumably), and THEN make the trek up to Seattle for another tough/emotional game.  The Packers are a good team but I don’t think that they are a physically punishing team – as opposed to the Panthers and the Seahawks.  So, I think that we would be fresher going to Seattle in the Divisional Round as opposed to the Championship Round.  But, until we are eliminated, we are the defending Conference Champions and we are definitely in a good position to break off a streak here in the post-season.  Go Niners!  (10-3)

The Chargers bested the Chiefs’ backups in a game that was much closer than I thought.  When I heard that the Chiefs were sitting most of their starters for this game, I declared it a no-brainer to pick the Chargers at home.  It ended up working out for me, but, for awhile there, it did get a little scary when the Chargers were, seemingly, always playing from behind.  Also, in the post-game (or halftime show, I don’t recall) for the Sunday Night Football game, they did a replay of the Chiefs’ missed, would-be-game-winning FG that, apparently, should have been re-attempted from 5yds closer, due to a penalty that wasn’t called on the Chargers.  Interesting, indeed.  (11-3)

The Seahawks shut down the Rams to lock-up home-field advantage.  I was disappointed in the Rams.  I gave them too much credit, apparently, by suggesting that it was going to be a wild game; a “kitchen sink” game from them.  I don’t think they attempted a single fake-punt, or reverse punt/kick return, or flea-flicker, nothing.  Oh, speaking of penalties that weren’t called, there weren’t many of those – they were calling EV-ERY-THING. As a 49ers fan, and living in the Pacific Northwest (thus, seeing a lot of the Seahawks), it is tough to play in Seattle because they will bait you into reacting; they are masters when it comes to instigating scuffles, shoves, and, ultimately, drawing penalties.  The Rams should have been prepared for it, but they bit on a lot of those plays and it cost them.  I don’t think that the crowd noise causes problems for teams that play there regularly.  But the Seahawks talk a lot, they do quick jabs when no one is looking, and bait you into pushing back.  Even though the League had said they were going to penalize instigators – and not just the reactors – that doesn’t seem to happen all that often around the League.  You have to be smart and keep your emotions in check when playing up there because it very easy to get called for personal fouls over and over again.  (12-3)

The Eagles beat the Cowboys in a game that was much closer than I expected.  Dallas’ defense finally showed up.  I thought that with the way that Foles has been playing this season against the Dallas defense that was one of the worst in the League, that the Eagles would be able to have their way on offense: Foles could pick them apart through the air, while McCoy could gash them on the ground.  But, by and large, the Dallas defense kept them in the game, with some key stops, and even a clutch turnover.  On Dallas’ final drive, with the seeming momentum that they had and knowing that, realistically, they had about 90 seconds to get 60 yards for a game-winning field goal attempt, they looked poised for an upset.  In my mind, though, as I was watching the game with Spaz, I thought to myself: “Wouldn’t it be kind of funny and fitting if Orton threw a pick on this drive that sealed the game?”  Sure enough, as if right on cue, Orton then threw the pick that sealed the game.  Jerry Jones is a true professional, though.  I don’t know if many others saw it but he turned his back to the window as he started (presumably) swearing up a storm.  He knew that once that ball was picked, that a camera would be swiveled up to his box for his reaction.  That’s a head’s up and professional move, Jerry.  Well-played.  (13-3)

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Going 13-3 today means I fall a little shy of my goal, but, hey, that’s been my 2013 year in a nutshell: Just short.  With a repeat of last week’s weird schedule ahead of me – having Wednesday off for New Year’s Day holiday – I will look to have my picks in for the Wild Card Round later this week.  Thanks for reading,

-Ryan.

NFL Week 15 Picks

I got distracted last night working on another project that I ended up deciding was a waste of my time – that’s how it goes in life, sometimes. Coming off a personal best last week, at 13-3, I am hoping to replicate that success, and I reckon that I will be off to a good start with Denver hosting the Chargers (yes, I went with the Broncos – obviously).  My goal, for the end of the season, is to finish with 170 wins on the season; it’ll be tough, but is mathematically doable.  So, let’s get the picking going:

Week 15 Picks

Chargers @ Broncos –

While I still like talking crap about Peyton Manning in cold weather, thus far, he has been able to keep the stats up, despite the temperature being down.  However, they have gotten out to slow starts as of late, and that may be a concern for the post-season.  This, however, is not the post-season, and I am going with the Broncos in this game.  Maybe not winning by a huge amount, but I’ll take the Broncos at home over the Chargers.  Broncos over Chargers.

Redskins @ Falcons –

In a game that is, thankfully, not televised out West, I don’t really like either of these teams.  However, with the recent scandals/controversies and happenings going on in Washington, I don’t think that the Redskins will win another game this season.  The Falcons – to their credit – put up some fight the past two weeks on the road (granted, the Bills — in Toronto — and the Rodgers-less Packers, but still…) and, so, coming home to play a team that is collapsing, and just got lit up last week is probably a good thing for the Falcons.  Falcons over Redskins.

Bears @ Browns –

I don’t know (yet) how much of the Bears romping of the Cowboys on Monday night was a representation of how well the Bears are playing right now, or a representation of the Cowboys’ defense.  I think that, because the way that the Patriots game played out last weekend, the Browns are going to be out to play hard, and play angry.  I thought, for sure, that they had that game won; but then a Christmas Miracle occurred…. and contributed to me going 13-3 last week.  Regardless, I don’t think that the Browns’ defense will give up so many plays like the Cowboys’ defense did last week, so I’m going to ride with the home team, again, and pick the Browns.  Browns over Bears.

Texans @ Colts –

The Colts. -defeated sigh-  No. No, that is not a confident “The Colts” as my pick, because the Colts have burned me more times this year than ANY other team in the League; a fact that is oft documented (and complained about).   Part of me is very confident with the Colts because they were a talked about potential-contender in the AFC coming into this season, and have underwhelmed a lot of people (myself included); so, they may come out these final few weeks and make statements with their play.  Or, since they’ve already clinched the Division (and, with the way that the Bengals are playing right now, the bye week is unlikely), they could, perhaps, coast these next few weeks — get healthy and prepared for the post-season surge.  Meanwhile, the Texans should be tanking it, by this point — should be.  I believe that they are the only AFC team that is eliminated from the post-season, right now, and, currently, are locked in for the #1 overall pick in the Draft — ahead of the Redskins by just one game (which, actually, makes them ahead of the Rams by just one game — via the all-in RGIII trade).  So, as much as I am preparing myself to be upset with the Colts, I think that the Texans’ incentive to lose is greater than the likelihood that the Colts don’t show up to play (especially, at home…although, they got torched by the Rams at home….those Rams….*shakes head*).  Colts over Texans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

The Patriots are hurting, right now.  I believe, of their impact players from last season, they are now down to Brady & Ridley.  Losing Gronk was tough.  Meanwhile, I think that the Dolphins are playing well right now, and that they take advantage, at home, against a roughed up Patriots team.  Dolphins over Patriots.

Eagles @ Vikings –

Reportedly, Foles is playing out of his mind, right now.  I toss out the snow game because anything goes, in 8″ of snow — my poetry on display.  I haven’t been impressed with the Vikings this season, and, now, without AP as a threat, I don’t know who they turn to.  Even on the road, I think that the Eagles are playing better right now, and so I’ll take them in this one.  Eagles over Vikings.

Seahawks @ Giants –

As much as I enjoyed reading my 49ers’ fan board, after our victory on Sunday, and how we “only” need the ‘Hawks to lose to the Giants, AND a loss to either the Cardinals or the Rams (both in Seattle), for us to have a shot at winning the Division….that’s not going to happen.  One of those may happen — may happen — but it’s certainly not going to be the Seahawks losing to the Giants.  The only thing that I know about the Giants this year is that Eli Manning became the first Super Bowl winning-QB (or was it Super Bowl MVP?) to start a season out 0-6…apparently, that has never happened before in the Super Bowl era.  So, yeah, there is nothing that makes me think that the Seahawks have the possibility of losing this game.  ESPECIALLY, because the Seahawks still have something to play for.  Nothing is clinched yet.  Except my pick, of course.  Seahawks over Giants.

49ers @ Buccaneers –

Speaking of something that is not clinched: this game,  I think, could be a lot tougher than what meets the eye.  Sure, the Buccs started off the season 0-8, and had the Josh Freeman distractions early on, but, since then, they have gotten it together, and have played some tough games really well.  If they had just a little more talent on their roster, I think that they could have won that game in Seattle; but they ran out of steam.  That said, I think that we are still working towards hitting our groove, and so this game is very important, in that regard.  By my simulations (on ESPN’s Playoff Machine), we need to win 2 of our final 3 games to make the playoffs, and so these final 3 games are all very important.  From what I’ve read and seen from our players and coaching staff is that the importance of this game (and the other 2) is not lost; and so, I expect us to come out and play.  I think that we will win this game but I expect a tough-fought game.  #GoNiners.  49ers over Buccs.

Bills @ Jaguars –

I used to scoff at picking the Jags, but, as of late, I have been riding them– except for that one game (Browns in Week 13) — and they haven’t disappointed.  I like them in this one, as well.  While none of us would know it from the way that they looked earlier in the season, they may have the makings for a somewhat decent team next season.  If they can keep this momentum going into the off-season, make good moves in the off-season, and pick up where they left off, they could make a splash next year.  Each year is its own little microcosm, sure, but this season has gone to show just how open the AFC can be — I’d be surprised if either of Houston’s QBs come back next year; the Titans will probably rebound (the Locker injury I think set them back a little); and the Colts… the [expletive] Colts… who knows?  I’m not saying that the Jags can be championship contenders, next season, but I think that they could become a competitive team. I’m interested in following them.  As for this game, though, I like them at home.  I have no idea what to expect from the Bills, but the way that the Jags are rolling right now, I don’t know if it would matter enough to sway my pick.  Jags over Bills.

Chiefs @ Raiders –

I don’t know exactly how much the Chiefs’ walloping of the Redskins last week was a reflection of the Chiefs firing on all cylinders, or the Redskins giving up — but I reckon that it’s probably 70% to the latter.  I don’t think that the Chiefs will put up the same numbers in Oakland — one of only 3 teams that I missed on last week… but it’s the one loss, from last week, that I am okay with, because I was guessing.  I had no idea what to expect in that game.  While I think that it will be a tougher game for the Chiefs, I still like them in this one.  Chiefs over Raiders.

Jets @ Panthers –

I was very disappointed in the Panthers on Sunday night.  I was pretty confident that — as my Upset Pick of the Week — that they would come through for me.  For all the talk of the Saints being “near untouchable” at home, I scoff at the claim.  The Saints are better in New Orleans, no doubt; but they are definitely beatable.  I would even go as far to say that we outplayed them in New Orleans in a losing effort.  I expected a similar performance from the Panthers, but they let me down.  However, I think that they are as disappointed (if not more) with their performance as well, and, at home, will look to make a statement against the Jets, and generate some momentum for the rematch against the Saints next week.  Panthers over Jets.

Packers @ Cowboys –

As of right now, Rodgers is not playing in Dallas.  I don’t know if this makes a big difference, though, because of Dallas’ defense.  Matt Flynn is capable of putting up big stats — he got a monster deal from Seattle last year due to his big number-game the season prior — and, the way that Dallas’ defense has been taking a beating this year, it’s very possible that Flynn could do the same damage.  I think that I’m going to go with the Packers in this game, for that very reason.  Romo, from what I’ve noted, has played pretty well this season, and the Packers’ defense isn’t anything that scares me, so I think that the Cowboys can (and will) put up some points, as well.  However, if it’s a shoot out that is on the menu, I’m going to take the Packers’ defense over the Cowboys’ defense in making a play.  Packers over Cowboys.

Cardinals @ Titans –

I like the Cardinals in this game because, I believe, that they are the better team, and they have a lot on the line, here.  With 3 games left to play, they need to keep playing hard and winning if they want to make the playoff chase interesting (they also need us to lose 2 of the final 3).  I am a little hesitant, though, because I haven’t seen much of the Cardinals on the road that makes me have a ton of faith in them.  They are really tough in Arizona, but I think that they are beatable on the road.  Will the Titans be able to beat them? I don’t think so.  But it wouldn’t surprise me.  Cardinals over Titans.

Saints @ Rams –

This is another game that has me all sorts of uncertain.  The Saints are much better indoors than they are outside – especially, late in the year.  The Rams, though, have had moments where they have defied my imagination… in both good and bad ways.  In St. Louis, they have played the Seahawks ridiculously close (held them to negative offensive yards in the 1st quarter, and came a missed FG away from being in a position to win that game with a chip-shot FG; instead, threw on 4th & goal to end the game).  But they didn’t look very good against us in St. Louis.  The Saints may have found their groove (after a, potential, off-night in Seattle), but I have no idea what Rams team will show up to play.  I could talk myself into picking both of these teams, if I dwell on the topic long enough.  I’m going to take the Rams in this game, even though my head is saying to take the Saints.  Something about the Rams at home makes me feel good.  Rams over Saints.

Bengals @ Steelers –

While the Division games are always tougher than most others, I think that the Steelers are on the decline at this point, while the Bengals are surging.  The Bengals need to keep winning, though, because they are up 2 games on the Ravens (in the Division) but the Ravens have a 1-0 series lead, with the final game of the season being vs. the Ravens, in Ohio.  If they slip up in these final weeks, the Ravens could make a move and take the Division.  That said, I think that the Bengals will show up to play and, also, show up to win.  Bengals over Steelers.

Ravens @ Lions –

I think that it was unfortunate for the Lions that Reggie Bush re-aggravated that injury during pre-game warm-ups, because I think that he could have had a similar day rushing had he been in there.  The Ravens are one of those teams that are sneaky but pull out wins, especially when I don’t expect them to pull out the win.  I’m not sure, yet, if Bush is playing — I read that he hasn’t practiced this week, but the NFL Live team mentioned him being back in the line-up.  IF Bush plays — as I’m guessing he will — I like the Lions in this game.  The Ravens have been playing a lot better as of late, and pulling out gutsy wins, but I think that the combination of Calvin Johnson (who is, reportedly, now on a mission to show the secondary that he’s not “old”) and Reggie Bush, amongst the other offensive weapons, will be too much for the Ravens’ defense.  Lions over Ravens.

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And, that shall do it for this week.  I was watching the score updates as I was typing and saw that the Broncos lost — that could be on me.  I was super confident in them winning tonight that I may have jinxed them.  Yes, I am a superstitious sports fan.  It’s all good; 0-1 is a record that I can battle back from come Sunday and into Monday.  #GoNiners

-Ryan.