Salutations Good People,

I need to go (an improbable) 14-2 in order to achieve my goal of 170 wins on the season.  While improbable, I’ve come this far and I’m not going to give up!  170 in 2013!!! (My Excel datasheet, for the season, predicts that I’ll finish with 166 wins…with a logically smug look).  That said, it will be some tough sledding and I’ll need a few post-Christmas Miracles to go my way, but, by and large, I am comfortable with this offering.  Onto my picks…

NFL Week 17 Picks:

Panthers @ Falcons-

The Falcons played a great game against us on Monday night and almost pulled out a huge win for them.  I think that we overlooked the Falcons a little bit, as was apparent that – despite the undoubted talent advantage that we had, on both sides of the ball – our offense couldn’t get clicking, and our defense made some very rare big-play mistakes.  Why we were playing 10yds off Roddy White, knowing that he is faster than all of our secondary and the one guy that Matt Ryan likes to throw to more than anyone else on the team, with a penchant for the long ball, is beyond me.  I also don’t know why we had Bowman out there on the “Hands Unit” to recover that punt.  But, anyway, the Falcons opened some eyes on Monday night as they came very close to earning a big win on the road.  However, the Panthers know the Falcons and they are playing pretty well themselves, PLUS will secure the division title AND the 2-seed with a win.  Because it’s a divisional game, and Tony Gonzalez’ last game in the NFL, I imagine it will be an emotional game and hard fought, but I still like the Panthers coming into Atlanta and handling their business.  They’re a young, hungry team with a defense firing on all cylinders right now and an offense that, despite losing Smith, can make plays and score points.  Panthers over the Falcons.

Ravens @ Bengals-

The Bengals are undefeated at home this season, and are eyeing an outside-chance of getting a bye week (if the Patriots lose).  The Ravens, on the other hand, are chasing the final Wild Card spot, and, in the Harbaugh-Flacco era, have never missed the playoffs.  While the Ravens have every reason to win, I think that the Bengals at home (with a huge incentive to win, as well) is the deciding factor in this game.  Bengals over Ravens.

Texans @ Titans-

It is the in the Texans’ future best interests to lose this game and secure the #1 overall draft pick. This is a team with a perennial playoff appearance history that had a bad season.  I don’t know what will happen with them – in regards to coaching changes – in the off-season, but they have some talent on the team and getting the #1 overall draft pick could be a big move for them. So, I think that they have every incentive to lose this game, and, especially going on the road, I think that the Titans will hand them that coveted loss.  Titans over Texans.

Jaguars @ Colts-

I would be surprised if the Colts’ starters play the entire game.  If I were to guess, I think that they come out and play hard for the first half or so, and then that is the last we see of them for the game.  The Colts are either going to be the 3- or 4-seed, which still gets them a home game and, probably, only comes into play depending on who finishes 1 and 2.  That said, I think that the Colts will be preparing for a playoff push and give the starters some action early on, so they can keep the wheels greased and mind in game-mode, but I don’t think that we see many of the starters gradually throughout the game.  I especially think this if the Colts jump out to an early lead on the Jags – which is possible, too.  Regardless, I’m picking the Colts in this game but have been impressed in the latter half of the season with the way that the Jags have been playing.  Colts over Jags.

Jets @ Dolphins-

Tannehill’s limited mobility, paired with a likely “kitchen sink” game from the Jets and Rex Ryan (who I think is fired after the season), is what makes this game interesting, to me.  I think that the Dolphins have what it takes to win, ESPECIALLY, when their game plan is simple: Win and In.  Even if the Jets are able to put a ton of pressure on the Tannehill, I think that the Jets are in a tougher position to win this game, and, especially, on the road.  Dolphins over Jets.

Lions @ Vikings-

This is one game that I have no interest in watching and that I have really no idea how I will pick.  It’s hard to believe that the Lions could have ran away with the division with the talent that they have and the small fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in almost two months.  But, as seems to be the trend with the Lions, they faltered towards the end.  I don’t know what to expect from the Vikings – who, I believe, have Matt Cassel as their QB now – but I think that they still want to play football and, more importantly, win games.  The Lions seem like they’ve given up, or that they view the season as a loss (which it is).  I read somewhere that Calvin Johnson is banged up and so that may limit the Lions’ offensive plans, but I also don’t think that the Vikings are very good.  I’m going to side with the home team on this one and go with the Vikings, although, I’m not comfortable with it, and this is my “Going Out on a Limb” Game of the Week.  Vikings over Lions.

Redskins @ Giants-

I think that Cousins makes this game interesting.  RGIII hasn’t looked good this year, as if he isn’t 100% healthy from that knee injury last season (which I hold the management responsible for; they shouldn’t have let him play in that Wild Card game), and it has hurt the ‘Skins all season.  Cousins, while not the dual-threat that RGIII is/was, I think can stabilize the offense and make plays; especially against the Giants.  Speaking of which, I don’t know what is up with the Giants.  I saw the highlights (lowlights?) from the Seattle game and some of those picks that Eli was throwing were terrible.

I think that this game comes down to turnovers.  If Eli & Co. give up another handful of turnovers, then the Redskins have a shot at winning this game.  They, the Redskins, really have nothing to lose, at this point, except pride…and maybe their head coach…who is probably going to be fired at the end of the season regardless of the outcome.  Actually, I guess the same could be said for the Giants, too.  Giants over Redskins.

Browns @ Steelers-

I was trying to think of a scenario in which I think that the Browns can win this game, but I don’t see it happening.  The Steelers are playing better right now whereas the Browns are looking at a top 5 pick in the 2014 Draft.  I like the Steelers in this game.  Steelers over Browns.

Packers @ Bears-

Having Aaron Rodgers back is big for the Packers, but I’m not sure how much of a boost they will get, overall.  I read that Rodgers has been throwing in practice for the past month or so, and thus it not expected that he will be rusty, but we’ll see.  He hasn’t been in a game environment in almost 2 months, and is making his return on the road, against a team that needs this win just as much as he does.  Rodgers is the best QB in the NFC, though, and a Super Bowl champion, so I don’t think it will take long for him to get comfortable in the game – presuming he starts out rusty.  But, the Packers’ defense is what has me concerned.  Being in Chicago, and facing the passing attack that the Bears’ have, would concern me – if I were a Packers’ fan.  While the Packers have undoubtedly struggled offensively with Rodgers injured, their defense hasn’t done much to help them in some of these games, either, and that’s what I think it comes down to.  While I’m not comfortable with it, and am already regretting it, I’ll go against the seeming conventional wisdom that I hear and pick the Bears in this game.  Bears over Packers.

Broncos @ Raiders-

I’m going with the Broncos in this game.   For one, the Broncos need to win because if they lose, and the Patriots win (like I predict), then they also lose home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Also, Peyton Manning is out to set records this season, so there is that added motivation.  Oh, and, lastly, it is the Raiders.  I have been off on the Raiders this season but even with Miller out, and so I think that Denver’s defense will be vulnerable from here on out, I don’t think that the Raiders have the talent to exploit those vulnerabilities.  Broncos over Raiders.

Bills @ Patriots-

The Patriots are banged up…but still, amazingly, finding ways to win games, and convincingly, too.  They clinched their division and, now, are just playing for the 2-seed, which I think that they really need.  If the Bengals win, and the Patriots lose, then the Patriots (likely) get to host the rested Chiefs in the Wild Card round.  Ergo, I like the Patriots in this game.  I think that they execute another great game plan, and lock up the 2-seed and make the most of the bye week.  Patriots over Bills.

Buccaneers @ Saints-

While I think that the Buccs are a solid team, I think that next year they will be more competitive.  They have played some tough games, and played them well, and, namely, their performance in Seattle – which is much more difficult to play in than New Orleans – gives them a puncher’s chance of an upset in this game.  However, the Saints need this game.  I don’t think that they can get the 2-seed, because, as stated, I don’t think that the Panthers will lose to the Falcons, but you never know, and the Saints are professionals and a seasoned team that is going to play hard just in case.  They also need this game because if they lose, I don’t think that they make the playoffs, with the Cardinals right behind them and, in my opinion, the favored team at home against my 49ers.  While I expect the Buccs to come in and play a good game, I also thought that about the Panthers, and that didn’t work out so well.  I’m going with the Saints in this one because they play much better at home than they do on the road, and this game means everything to them.  Saints over Buccs.

49ers @ Cardinals-

I’m not sure what to expect with this game because there isn’t really anything on the line (realistically), in my opinion.  We need to win and have the Seahawks lose at home, again, in order to secure a bye-week; both of those are tall orders.  The way that the Cardinals are playing right now is really a blessing and a travesty that they, likely, will not be in the playoffs – unless they beat us and, some how, the Saints lose at home (the latter of which I don’t think is likely to happen).  That said, we have locked up our appearance in the post-season which is what you want, first and foremost.  Once in, anything is possible.

Especially with the physicality that the Cardinals most certainly are going to bring, I wouldn’t be surprised if we rested people and let some of our support roles get some playing experience against a very good team.  I say this because — sparing an unprecedented Seattle late-season collapse — we are going to have 4 road games to prepare for (yes, I’m aiming high, haha), so why get our bodies beaten up to start a 4-game road trip?  If it were me, I’d play our starters like normal – so that they get some reps and keep that game-mentality flowing – for the first half, UNLESS the Rams are hanging in there with the Seahawks.  If the Rams are winning or staying competitive in Seattle, then we have to keep playing to win.  But, if it’s like the Saints game up there and the Seahawks are dominating early, I would shut down our starters, as the game would no longer mean anything to us, and preventing injury and/or unnecessary fatigue would be our top priority.  PLUS, getting some of our support players some playing time is always a good thing – you never know when they may be needed.

I know what to expect from the Cardinals: they are going to come out and play hard because, they still have to keep playing and trying to win.  While I don’t think that they are going to make the playoffs — since I don’t see the Saints losing at home on Sunday — they are not quitters and so they are going to play hard until their season is officially over.  And I also know that they are a physical team, on both sides of the ball, and so I expect a lot of hard hits and physicality throughout the game.  I think that the Cardinals are going to win this game simply because they need it more than we do.  However, I am okay with that.  As I’ve said, I think that we are a better road team this year than a home team (which is weird), so I feel oddly confident about us playing on the road.  Cardinals over my 49ers.

Chiefs @ Chargers-

A few weeks ago, the Chargers went into Arrowhead and got the win from the Chiefs.  I read somewhere that the Chiefs plan on playing a blend of starters and reserves in this game, as their focus is on being healthy for the post-season; as winning (or losing) this game does nothing for them: they’re the 5-seed regardless, and, likely heading to Indy for a rematch.  While I don’t think that the Chargers will make the playoffs, I think that they will be playing for the chance to make the playoffs.  Primarily because of hearing of the Chiefs’ personnel plans, I’m going with the Chargers in this game – they are at home and have more to play for.  Simple enough.  Chargers over Chiefs.

Rams @ Seahawks-

I think that people put way too much into Seattle’s home-field advantage.  Is it good? Yes.  Are they invincible? No.  And they weren’t invincible prior to the Cardinals winning there last weekend.  Teams can play the Seahawks hard in Seattle, but, prior to last weekend, the Seahawks have done what good teams do: find a way to win.

Of their 7 home games thus far this year, 3 have been true blow outs, but the other 4 have been tough games.  In Week 2, we went up to Seattle and played them tough despite having Kyle Williams (who isn’t on our team anymore) as a starting WR – to show how far down our depth chart, offensively, we were digging.  Yes, the final score of that game was 29-3, and some call it a ‘blow out’, but the final score is misleading: it was 5-0 at halftime, and 12-3 going into the 4th quarter.  Our defense had held their offense to 10 points through 3 quarters – despite offensive stalls and turnovers – before collapsing in the 4th.  You can’t ask for much more from a defense on the road, in my opinion.  The Titans then went into Seattle and hung in that game for 3.5 quarters, before the ‘Hawks eventually put them away – Titans lost by 7.  They had the then-winless Buccs go up to Seattle and dominate for most of that game, BUT, again, they eventually battled back and won in OT – on a decision that I question in the new OT era.  And, then, they finally got a team who was playing hot and had the talent necessary, and knowledge of how, to finish the game, and lost to the Cardinals.  So, while I figured that – as in the prior games – the Seahawks would eventually find a way to win, their loss to the Cardinals was not surprising to me; the ‘Hawks were due for a loss.

That said, can the Rams beat them there?  Yes.  I think that they can.  The NFC West, the best division in all of football, is a collection of teams who are built similarly and know each other very well.  And, the Rams are not a slouch team, either.  They’ve had some impressive wins this season….to go with some impressive losses, too, haha.  I’m not sure which Rams team will show up on Sunday, but when the Rams hosted the ‘Hawks earlier in the season, their defense dominated the Seahawks’ offense (holding them to NEGATIVE yards in the first quarter), while their RBs had no problem finding huge holes in the ‘Hawks defense.  Will that happen again? Probably not.  But don’t sleep on the Rams.  I am always scared of the Rams; especially a “mediocre” Rams team who knows the division incredibly well, and has nothing to lose, and everything to gain by making a huge statement upset.  If my 49ers weren’t playing at the same time, I’d want to watch this game; I won’t be surprised if it becomes a kitchen-sink game where the Rams show all sorts of crazy stuff that has never been seen before.

However, because my goal is 14-2 on the week, I am going with my head on this pick (instead of my gut) and picking the Seahawks at home.  I won’t be surprised if the Rams pull off the upset, but I also don’t see the Seahawks losing back-to-back home games.  Seahawks over Rams.

Eagles @ Cowboys-

I don’t think that Romo being out this game will change the outcome.  In a one-game showdown to get into the playoffs (as this, realistically, is; the Cowboys are not a contender in the Conference), Orton is competent enough to win the game.  However, just like with Romo, I think that he will struggle to compensate for the Cowboys’ atrocious defense.  Against an Eagles offense that is on a tear, I don’t think that the Cowboys’ defense can make the stops or plays necessary to keep them in this game.  I’m kind of surprised that this was selected as the Sunday Night Football game; it should have been one of the NFC West games, in my (biased) opinion.  Eagles over Cowboys.

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There we go.  The finale to the 2013 NFL regular season is upon us and, once again, the magic number, this week, is “14”.  If I get to 170 wins, I’ll get a commemorative cake, or something, and share it with all of you….pictures, that is.  I’ll share pictures.  I enjoy cake too much.

-Ryan.