Tagged: Chargers

NFL Week 1 Picks

Salutations Good People,

After many long months, I am back at my desk and getting ready to make my picks for the week.  Last year, I had the goal of 170 wins during the season…. and I fell juuuuust short (169 wins).   It really was just one bad week that I had last season that not only robbed me of my 170-win goal BUT robbed me of shattering it.  That said, Week 1 is always a little dicey simply because I really only pay attention to a few teams, and so, Week 1, is my first opportunity to sit down and see what the rest of the League is offering.  For those who didn’t follow my picks last year, I’m not a journalist and I am open with my biases; I’ll give my thoughts on the match-up where I feel inspired to, but, ultimately, I’m just picking who I think will win.  Usually, I’m right — however, I don’t gamble so what does my accuracy really matter?  It’s all for good fun.

Here are my picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Picks

Packers @ Seahawks –

We have gotten a fair dosing of the “Fail Mary” story in the past week, leading up to this game, but hopefully it is long past.  This game is a tough one.  “Fail Mary” aside, the Packers played well in Seattle the last time that they were up there; for it being the first game of the season, too, I reckon that everyone is healthy and ready to go (except for BJ Raji, but I hear that he may be more of a big name on the defense than a big factor… I don’t know, though; I don’t follow the Packers that closely).  It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers (even if up against a great pass-defense) and now that he has a reliable running game, as well, there’s nothing in me that thinks that the Packers do not have a chance at winning this game.  I think that they do have a chance.  That said, the NFC West has had the Packers’ number as of late, especially in exploiting the Packers’ often-porous defense — most notably with my beloved 49ers and Colin Kaepernick: the Packer Killer.  While I’m not comfortable with the pick, I’m going to go with the Seahawks at home, simply because I’d rather pick them and have them lose (and take the loss in my Picks) than I would picking the Packers and having them lose AND taking the loss in my Picks — then I’ve just screwed my night.  At least this way, I’ll have some silver lining at the end of the night…. but I’m not confident on this pick.  Seahawks over Packers.

Saints @ Falcons –

While I think that the Falcons will bounce back this year — sure, they may not have much of a running game and their defense is suspect, but they’ll have Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, and that has to be worth a few wins — I think that the Saints are going to win the division and also get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, on the NFC side of the coin.  With Graham happy, Brees having some weapons (and, I believe, he is recovered from his abdominal strain by now), plus they have reinforced their defense, I think that they will win this game.  I’m not sold on the Falcons whereas I am sold on the Saints.  Saints over Falcons.

Vikings @ Rams –

I think that the beginning of this season is going to be tough sledding for the Rams.  Losing Bradford like they did, when they did, and now having to build the offense around Shaun Hill is a bit of a challenge.  Sure, they have a good running game but Hill is the wild card; I don’t know what to expect from him.  Meanwhile, I see a lot of promise with the Vikings — I don’t think that they’ll make the playoffs this year but I think that they could turn some heads as the season goes along.  I think that, despite the tough predicament the Rams are in, I’ll go with the Rams in this game simply because their defense is one of the best; quietly one of the best.  They have a great pass-rush and if the Vikings are rolling with Cassel as their guy in Week 1, I like the Rams defense against him.  Rams over Vikings.

Browns @ Steelers –

I’m going Steelers.  Not because I have a lot of faith in the Steelers (even though Big Ben and Tomlin are due for a good season) but simply because Cleveland appears to be a circus right now; I have no faith in them.  Which is exactly how I like it. (Side Note: I put a curse on the city of Cleveland some 7yrs ago; so far, so good. End Side Note.)  Steelers over Browns.

Jags @ Eagles –

From the highlights that I saw from the preseason (as well as how they performed down the stretch last year), I think that the Jags may have a chance in the AFC this year.  By “have a chance” I mean that I think that they can put together a respectable season; maybe not playoff-bound but I think that they could be good enough to be a spoiler team for other teams that are on the post-season bubble.  That said, I think that the Eagles will win the NFC East this year (again) and I’ll take their fast-paced offense, at home, over the Jags.  Eagles over Jags.

Raiders @ Jets –

The Raiders appear to be a mess.  While the Jets may not be in a much better situation, I still think that they are better than the Raiders (with Smith or Vick) and, being at home, I am going to go with the Jets in this game.  Jets over Raiders.

Bengals @ Ravens –

This could be a fun game.  The Bengals, I think, have more talent than the Ravens — but the Bengals also tend to not perform well when I want them to, haha.  I have more questions about the Ravens, though, than I do the Bengals.  And so I’m going to ride with the Bengals in this game, with their defense, and that Andy Dalton usually performs well during the regular season….. but I’m not 100% confident on this pick.  Bengals over Ravens.

Bills @ Bears –

I’m going to go with the Bears in this game simply because I haven’t heard anything about the Bills’ defense.  Everything seems to be focused on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins (who may or may not be nursing a rib injury from the preseason).  Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense could be pretty explosive this season, and I think that could cause problems for the Bills.  I don’t have much faith in the Bears’ defense, either, but — if looking at two teams with unimpressive defenses — I’ll take the offense that is stocked with proven veterans over the youthful offense that is banking a lot on the production from a (potentially not 100% healthy) rookie WR.  Bears over Bills.

Redskins @ Texans –

The only football-related story that I have heard coming out of DC this summer is the questions surrounding if RGIII is going to be healthy to start the season.  I don’t follow them closely and so I haven’t heard much — one way or the other — with any great deal of confidence.  That said, being on the road and going up against a potentially great pass rush (in Watts and Clowney) does make me concerned for RGIII, especially if he does not have his mobility.  Unlike other “mobile” QBs, I don’t think that RGIII can play well without mobility; I think that is a much bigger part of his game than the other “mobile” QBs.   I have a lot of questions about the Texans’ offense (ex. I have no idea who their starting QB is going to be…but it doesn’t seem like they have a solid pick, either…and that’s never good)….but I’d say it’s almost on par with the amount of questions that I have on the Redskins’ defense.  Ergo, I’ll take the superior defense/pass rush and the home team:  Texans over Redskins.

Titans @ Chiefs –

Last season, as you may recall, I was big on the Chiefs.  They had been a terrible team in the recent pass…but consistently had 8 or so Pro Bowl players on their team…..so they had talent but lacked a reliable QB and solid coaching.  Then they got Reid and Alex Smith, addressing both of those areas…. and for the first half of the season they were making me look like a genius, haha. Even though they stumbled as the season progressed and, ultimately, got bit (with a vengeance) by the Injury Bug in that playoff game in Indy, I felt as though they lived up to my expectations.  This year, though, I’m not sure.  No one seems to be talking about them — everyone is occupied with the Broncos (obviously) and there’s a bit of buzz around the Chargers, I hear as well; but I don’t know why the Chiefs can’t be competitive.  If anything, given another year with the offense, Alex Smith and the rest of those pieces should be clicking better; their defense hasn’t changed all that much from last year, either, I don’t believe.   However, for as quiet as the Chiefs have been this off-season and preseason, the Titans have been quieter (in my world).  Ergo, I’ll stick with the home team in this one, simply because the Titans are not on my radar as a team to look out for in the AFC this season.  Chiefs over Titans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

I don’t follow the Dolphins, really, but I know that last year they had the whole media circus revolving Incognito and Martin, and that probably did have some impact on their performance.  Meanwhile, the Patriots had an incredibly mediocre roster of talent last year….and still won the division….and still made it to the AFC Championship game.  I don’t know if Gronk has been cleared to play (and how many games he will play this season; injury or re-injury seems inevitable) but I imagine that it’s Week 1 and the Patriots are as healthy as they’ll be, so I imagine that they will be able to get this win on the road.  Patriots over Dolphins.

Panthers @ Buccaneers –

The Panthers’ offense has me concerned.  Similar to the Bills, they seem to be relying a lot on young players on offense; really, just two young players on offense.  While I think that Cam Newton is better than EJ Manuel, I believe that Cam is still nursing a rib injury and his ankle may be a concern, plus is O-line is not a strength of the offense. Team that with the departure of Steve Smith and thus a rather unproven receiver corps, I don’t know what to think of their offense.  I reckon that their defense will still be a great defense so they do have that going for them.  Meanwhile, the Buccs have a new head coach, are removed from the QB distraction from last year, and I think could make progress this year within the division.  Because I have a few questions marks surrounding the Panthers’ offense right now, I’m going to stay with the home team and pick the Buccs, and then re-evaluate my opinion of the Panthers after I see them in action.  Buccs over Panthers.

49ers @ Cowboys –

For all of the talk about how my beloved 49ers are in shambles right now (and some media folks even writing them off this season), the word that I keep reading and hearing from players and coaches is that things are just fine; so I’ll trust them on that.  I think that the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the ball against us — passing defense is not our strength, especially when we’ll be without 2 of our best pass-pressure players (Aldon & Bowman), but who knows? Maybe our secondary will be better this year with the changes that we have made?  Regardless, the Cowboys’ defense is supposed to be one of the worst…..ever…..and so I imagine that our offense will be able to move the ball on them, as well.  In that case, I will take the more all-around-talented team and I hope to see some good performances from our younger players: namely, Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James.  49ers over Cowboys.

Colts @ Broncos –

The Colts tempt me in this game.  However, seeing how they needed the Injury Bug to strike KC in that playoff game last season in order to win, coupled with the fact that the Broncos are in full-on Super-Bowl-or-Bust mode right now (with their off-season spending spree), I don’t think that the Broncos are going to come out of the gates with a loss….at home.  My concerns with the Broncos’ veteran additions (and their ability to hold up for the whole season) is irrelevant in Week 1, so I’ll be taking the Broncos at home.  Broncos over Colts.

Giants @ Lions –

The Lions are one of the more talented teams in the League, in my opinion, and perhaps their late-season collapses were more the result of their coaching than of the players on the field? We’ll find out this year, as Jim Caldwell is the new head coach.  I wasn’t impressed with Caldwell when he was at the helm of the Colts but he took that talented team to the Super Bowl….where he was promptly out-coached and the Colts were out-played by the Saints.  That said, I don’t think that the Lions are Super Bowl-bound, but I think that they’ll make the post-season, sure.  Meanwhile, I don’t think that the Giants will do much this year and so I’ll stick with the more talented team, especially while at home in the season-opener.  Lions over Giants.

Chargers @ Cardinals –

I don’t know if I’ve bought into the hype of the Chargers or just have too many questions to back the Cardinals in this game, but in what little action I saw from the Chargers’ starters in their preseason game against us, they seem to be in a good place right now.  Rivers seems happy in the new system, he was making good decisions, high-percentage passes, and such an approach could be successful against the Cards since they lost Dockett and another defensive star on the line.  Patrick Peterson, I believe, is no longer handling punt return duties and we’ll see how the Honey Badger rebounds this season.  Ultimately, though, my questions with the Cards are with Carson Palmer: he hasn’t been the same since his knee got blown out in that playoff game as a Bengal and now, I believe, he is in his upper 30s and I expect his production to fall off this season — but will that drop off start to happen in Week 1? That is the question.   I haven’t made many bold picks this week so I’ll roll with the Chargers in this game and see what happens.  Chargers over Cardinals.

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We’ll see how Week 1 goes and I’ll recap it on Tuesday evening.

-Ryan.

NFL 2014 Predictions: The Seahawks Will Not Repeat (I Don’t Think So, At Least)

One of my friends on the Facebook was posting about his belief that the Seahawks would take a step back this year, meanwhile, the media is all over the Seahawks as being the best-looking team coming out of preseason.  Did they look impressive?  Sure, much like the University of Oregon, they do take pride in running up the score on either bad teams or in irrelevant games (like preseason); but that is aside from my point.

I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat as champions, this year, not because I don’t like them, or that I don’t respect them, or that I don’t think that they are a good team; none of those reasons.  I don’t think that they will repeat simply because of their schedule and, most importantly, their Bye Week.

Last year, the Seahawks got their rest for a post-season push in Week 12, and that always helps.  This year, though? They will be getting their rest in the month of September (Wk 4).  This means that they will have 3 straight months of football, from their Bye Week to the end of the regular season and, potentially, another month of post-season football in order to get in the position to repeat as champions.  That, though, is a very tall order.

Here is how I break down their schedule:

Pre-Bye Week, they have 3 Super Bowl contenders, in a lot of peoples’ minds: Packers, @ Chargers, then hosting the Broncos.  I don’t know if any of those games are slam-dunk victories for the Seahawks.  For as much as people are quick to talk about their home-field advantage, it is not as dominant as people believe it to be.  Yes, in the past 3 years they have only lost there once (last season vs. the Cardinals), but they have had some really close calls.  While I don’t think that it is likely that they lose back-to-back home games to start off the season, I would not be surprised if they lost one of them.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if they went into their bye week 3-0, either.  Best case scenario is 3-0, but if they go into their Bye Week 1-2 or 0-3, it could potentially sink their season.  Why? It’s a long season.

Coming out of their Bye Week, I think that they will have good success against the Redskins (in DC) and the Cowboys, at home.  But then they go on the road against the Rams and then to Carolina to play the Panthers; and while both of those teams may be in disarray on the offensive side of the ball, both teams possess big, physical defenses.  Last year, the Panthers held the Seahawks to under 2 TDs in Carolina (in an eventual loss), while the Rams held the Seahawks to negative yardage in the first quarter before eventually losing 14-9 — after failing on a 4th and Goal that would have won the game.  Can they win these games?  Possibly/probably, simply because their defense will be good enough to keep it close and, while the offense may get battered, I still think that they have enough to win the games.

They then come home for the Raiders and the Giants, which are games that I don’t think that they will struggle with.  And that is the last real ray of sunshine for the Seahawks in the regular season, in my opinion.

They then go on the road to Kansas City, and while I think that the Chiefs will take a step back this year, I also think that the Seahawks struggle on the road. Especially when going to a stadium that is equally loud, as Arrowhead can get.  The Seahawks are good enough to win this game but I think that it can wear on them.

They then return home to host the Cardinals (who beat them in Seattle in their last meeting) and while I’m not sold on the Cards’ offensive weapons, I think that their defense can give the Seahawks some problems.  They then play us 4 nights later on Thanksgiving night, where we will have Aldon Smith back (fresh), likely to have Bowman back healthy, and, even if McDonald is convicted on the domestic violence charge (court appearance is later this month), he will also likely be back from the 6-game suspension the League protocol would dictate.  Not to mention that we will have been just coming off of our Bye Week four weeks prior.

The Seahawks next travel to Philadelphia to play the fastest-paced team in the NFL.  Which, for a team that hasn’t had a week off in over 2 months, is probably going to be an added challenge.  I imagine that also playing outside in the potential cold/snow of Philadelphia could also be an added wrinkle that the Seahawks are not used to having to deal with.

From there, they fly back across the continent to host us (whereas we will have had a “road” game in Oakland), and we gave them a tough game the last time that we played in Seattle, and so I have no reason to think that we won’t bring them a challenge once again.

Before going on the road to play Arizona and their strong defense, and then finishing the regular season at home against the Rams’ strong defense.  That is 5 of their last 6 games against the NFC West, with that one other game being a cross-continental game against a very fast-paced offense.  It’ll be tough sledding, I reckon.

I think that the Seahawks are good enough to win a lot of these potentially close games — I think that they go 12-4 this season — BUT I don’t think that they get home-field advantage this year (I think that the post-season will go through New Orleans).  That said, while I think that they have enough to make it into the post-season, I don’t think that they will have enough left in the tank to win it all this year.  And that is why I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat this year.

-Ryan.

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Salutations Good People,

Tonight, I am perched, here, on the edge of my seat partly because of excitement for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs….and partially because Spaz has taken over the back half of the seat…and is not interested in moving.  It is that same opposition that my 49ers are likely to see in Carolina on Sunday, against Spaz’s Carolina Panthers.  (By the way, in Spaz’s lifetime, the 49ers have never beaten the Panthers….)

When going by wins-and-losses, I got killed last weekend (1-3).  On the bright side, that just means that I have areas to improve upon this week, and that is exactly what I plan to do:

Divisional Round Picks

Saints @ Seahawks

Naturally, I like the Seahawks in this game (and I wagered big on it, in fact). Was 8.5-month-ban excessive? Perhaps, but that’s how confident I am feeling in this game.  And here’s why: the Saints cannot compete with Seattle on the road.  Bottom line.

It’s not a critique of the Saints’ talent or team as much as it is the incredible mismatch that the Seahawks present to them.  I’ve beat that drum for most of the week, much to the ire of my Saints fans friends, I’m sure, but the Seahawks are a terrible match-up for them on both sides of the ball.  As it pertains to this game, though, the mismatch is against the Saints’ offense, as the Seahawks have the best secondary/pass defense in the League – which is bad news if a big part of your offensive success is coming through the air (like the Drew Brees-led Saints).

The Seahawks are beatable in Seattle, but the way you beat them is by a balanced attack on offense, not turning the ball over/making mistakes, and having a great defense that can shut the Hawks’ offense down — which gives you a good shot at making bigger plays against their defense later in the game, if you’ve successfully kept them on the field for most of it.  The Saints lack 2 of those 3 weapons, and the turnover piece is something Brees does a lot more outside (and on the road) than he does inside and in New Orleans.

Now, people are quick to say (poor imitation voice): “Why are you giving so much credit to the Seahawks? You don’t even like them!“, and, of course, that is true.  I don’t like the Seahawks, but I do respect them; and when I see them play at least twice a year (vs. my 49ers, but then also a few games here and there because I’m in their TV market….sadly), I have a pretty good feeling for what is realistic.  Seattle is not a perfect team; no team is perfect.  But their vulnerabilities are protected because they are, also, not a strong part of the Saints’ game.

Contrary to popular belief: I don’t hate the Saints, I just don’t think that they have a chance in this game.  Can they make it competitive? Maybe.  But Seattle is the more talented team, the more physical team, and the home team (against a team, in the Saints, where home vs. away really does matter) — and, again, the mismatch that no amount of scheme or game-planning can address at this point in the season.  It’s a mismatch of team identity.  The Seahawks’ defensive front is good enough to get stops and get Drew Brees off the field.  Meanwhile, the Saints defense, I don’t think, will be able to contain Wilson in the pocket – and, once he gets out, then the Saints secondary, I believe, will give up big plays – be it Wilson running for chunks of yards here or there, or throwing some of his (really bad) passes that play off the athletic ability of his receivers.  If the Saints get down big again in the 1st quarter, the game is over.  Once the Saints become one-dimensional and dependent on throwing the ball, they play right into Seattle’s strengths, and that is the end of the game.

It likely won’t be a 34-7 game again because the season is on the line and so there is no advantage in “saving yourself for next week” (which the Saints probably did on Monday Night Football); and the Saints, being playoff veterans, know this and will play accordingly.  That said, all of the heart, game-planning, and playoff experience in the world cannot address the mismatches that are presented in this game.  It may not be a blow out, again, but I think Seattle by 12, at the least, is reasonable.  If I had to guess a final score, I’d say 24-10, but with the game being much more one-sided than the score indicates.  Seahawks over Saints; final score: 24-10.

Colts @ Patriots-

I know that the Colts performed the 2nd-largest comeback win in NFL playoff history last weekend, but there should be some sort of asterisk attached, if they are going to boast about it — only if they are going to boast about it.  Am I little sore about it? Sure.  The Colts have screwed me a lot this season, and I make it no mystery that I am not a fan of theirs right now.  As for the asterisk claim (which I’m mostly joking about), I say this because it was not the Chiefs having an epic collapse…well, it kind of was, but not in the traditional sense….but it was mostly, I believe, injury-related.  It seemed like that the Chiefs – in addition to losing Charles on the 6th play of the game, and eventually their productive #2 back, and two of their defensive Pro Bowlers – were having guys go down with a variety of ailments all throughout the second half.  Meanwhile, their offense kept things together as best they could, but their offense was never expected to be their saving grace – and that ended up being true.

Once they started losing Pro Bowlers on defense, though, their pass-rush slowed and their secondary got exposed.  I know that feeling first hand.  Last season, after Justin Smith went down, in New England, we didn’t get an adequate pass-rush back again for the rest of the season; and our secondary got picked apart.  Same thing happened in Indy last weekend.  That said, I don’t know if I trust Indy yet or not. And, Lord knows, they have screwed me over a lot this season.  Was last weekend the last time?? We shall see.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have been able to win games that I didn’t think that they’d be able to win, especially, with their injuries to significant parts of their offense AND defense throughout the year.  I readily admit that I have no solid pulse on the Patriots, as I haven’t seen them play this year – however, I’ve seen the Colts once (in full, vs. my 49ers) and then 3/4 vs. the Chiefs, and the end of their games against the Broncos and the Seahawks.  Part of me thinks that what the Pats’ coaching staff and players have been able to do the last month or so, has been simply incredible.  So incredible, in fact, that they can’t keep it up much longer.   I am going to pick the Colts in this game for two reasons: 1) I’ve seen them play and they seem to play (and win) against the better teams that they face – it isn’t always pretty but they get the job done; and 2) either the Colts are going to win and not screw me over this week, OR they are going to lose and then I can take satisfaction in knowing that I don’t have to see them again until next season.  Colts over Patriots; final score: 17-13….which is a very wild guess.

Onto Sunday’s games which, I think, are probably going to be the more exciting/interesting games to watch this weekend (and, yes, I am very biased in that regard)…

49ers @ Panthers-

This is a tough one.  While I am wildly confident in the Seahawks beating the Saints, I am not as confident in this game.  I certainly would not wager 8.5 months of football on it, that is for sure.  That game last weekend in Green Bay was brutal.  It was physical – the refs were “letting them play” – and it was incredibly cold, but we pulled off the win.  The last time that we faced the Panthers, we lost 10-9 at home.  However, this time around, we’ll have Crabtree playing – which helps spread out our offense, and, hopefully, can keep Davis and Reid from getting concussed (*fingers crossed in hope*).  Also, I said so in a past posting (either a Picks or a Recap) but it feels as though we have been a better road team this year; our home games (save for a few against bad teams) have looked shaky.  I can only imagine that it was because we got too comfortable, maybe? I’m not sure, but on the road, we have shown up more often than not.  I think that we will show up on Sunday, as well.

The Panthers, though, are not a team that I am sleeping on.  Had the Eagles won (like I thought/wanted), I would have put the Panthers in the driver’s seat for the NFC Championship, simply because they’d get to play the winner/survivor of a very physical game between us and Seattle.  However, the Saints screwed that up, so I don’t think I have them in the driver’s seat, anymore.  Can they beat us on Sunday? Sure.  I don’t see why they can’t: they matched up against us well the last time, their defense is great (a really good defense), and Cam Newton can flip a switch and take a game over; it’s very plausible that they can win on Sunday.

However, I don’t think that they can beat us and Seattle in consecutive weeks.  That is a lot of physicality to have to endure, especially under the spotlight and pressure of a championship game, and a Super Bowl berth on the line.  If Steve Smith plays, that is big for them – last I read, he still wasn’t practicing; however, getting him healthy is much more important than getting him on the practice field, so I don’t read too much into that.  It’s the playoffs: if he is able to play, he is going to play.  If he doesn’t play, though, that could be big for us, as it’s always great to have your opposition be down a big weapon like Steve Smith.

I am going to give us the edge in this game, though, not out of disrespect to the Panthers but more so for what we have been able to build upon from our last meeting.  Our defense held them to 10pts, so I think that we can probably replicate that performance.  The last time, we were able to move the ball on the ground somewhat well (100+ yards by the team), so that is reassuring – especially with the added respect now for our passing game with Crabtree back, Boldin playing like an animal, Davis, and rookie Patton, I believe, has some potential to make splashes on Sunday. That’s really the area that we’ll need to see: our passing game was completely shut down as their defense was able to get to Kaepernick regularly, with sacks, pressure, and forced throws.  I also don’t know what to expect from the Panthers with many of them making their playoff debut on Sunday.  Sure, Newton has played in big college games, but he didn’t have a great game against us last time and so we will see if he has learned from that performance, or if we are in store for another defensive battle.

I wouldn’t wager anything on this game, but I’ll stick with my 49ers in a close one.  49ers over Panthers; by 3 points…27-24.

Chargers @ Broncos-

I’ll make this one very quick because I am a little tired and, frankly, I’m not sure what to expect from this game.  I am going with the Chargers for one reason only: I believe the Broncos to be the lone obstacle standing between me and going to the Super Bowl.  Not my 49ers, me personally – in attendance at the Super Bowl.  Last year, my brother was able to get tickets and, even though my 49ers made it (…and he said he would take me if they did, but, instead, he took his wife… I’m not bitter, though…promise….) I didn’t get to go.  Now, though, the wife is not going (Obstacle #1); my brother – and his best friend/Best Man at his wedding – is a Chiefs fan, and I could see myself getting bumped for their Chiefs Super Bowl, but now that the Chiefs are eliminated (Obstacle #2); I have already got cleared for the week before AND after the Super Bowl from work, so I can head east, literally, at any time, if necessary (Obstacle #3); the Super Bowl this year is in N. Jersey and outside (not some where warm and sexy like Florida, New Orleans, California, etc.), and so, really, you’re going to want to really be there in order to put up with those conditions (Obstacle #4); and, while not confirmed, I imagine that my brother’s ability to secure tickets this year banks on the Broncos not playing in it – again, it’s not confirmed but that is what my gut is telling me (Obstacle #5).  *IF* the Broncos can lose – either this weekend or next weekend (I’m not picky) – I think that puts me in a favorable position. Furthermore, *IF* the 49ers can some how run the gauntlet and beat Green Bay, Carolina, AND Seattle, all on the road, in three consecutive games, then the Football Gods have to let me go, right?  That would just be cruel.

So, quick recap:  there are only two snippets that I have seen from the Chargers this year – their win in Denver a few weeks ago, and their needing OT to beat the Chiefs’ reserves in San Diego.  Denver can put up a lot of points but, while Peyton gets really mad when it is brought up, it is mid-January in Denver, and if there is really going to be a Divisional Round upset this weekend, I think it is going to be in this game.  Yes, I picked the Colts over the Patriots, but I think that the Patriots will probably win.  I just picked the Colts because I am tired of them burning me, as prior stated.  Chargers over Broncos; final score 27-21.

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That will do it for my picks for the Divisional Round.  In the off-chance that the Saints win on Saturday, this will be my last Picks post until October.  I am confident that the 8.5-month ban will not be initiated, though, for all of the reasons that I listed above.   HOWEVER, if the unthinkable does, indeed, happen, I will write a farewell post as part of my agreement with the wager.  I may even record a good-bye speech.  I’ll try to have fun with it, just in case, because I will certainly miss this game, if I am banned from it for the next 8.5 months.  Geez…8.5 months… that’s a long time.  No, no…I’m confident that the Seahawks will handle their business.  I’m obligated to never cheer for them, so any silent fist pumps will be in support of being able to watch, talk, and write about football between Saturday evening and October.

-Ryan.

Recap: Wild Card Weekend

There’s no way around it: I got hosed on Wild Card Weekend.  I went 1-3 on the weekend, my worst finish since Week 6 (I believe, when I went 6-9), and it was a very up-and-down kind of stretch for me.  So, let’s tend to the wounds quickly so that I can move on with the week:

The Chiefs’ heart-breaking loss to the Colts was a tough one.  As I was quite proud throughout the season, but I had picked the Chiefs to win the AFC as a 10-6 Wild Card team, in the pre-season, because I thought that the AFC was wide open and they’d be the rugged team that could do it all to win.  I was wrong.  I also thought that after their “bye week” of sorts, in Week 17, that they’d be ready to go to shut down the Colts…which they did….until the injury plague ravaged them.  When Charles went down on the 6th play of the game, I thought that they were done – but they persevered.  Then their back-up RB went down, and I thought: “Well, Alex Smith is playing a solid game, as long as he protects the ball and moves the chains, they have a sizable lead, their defense can hold.” Then Flowers went down.  Then Houston went down.  It got to the point where it seemed like every 3-4 plays one of their guys went down with an injury.  Meanwhile, the Colts battled back and rode Hilton to the victory.  It was a tough loss.  I still don’t know if I’m riding the Colts – who, once again, screwed me this season – especially on the road in New England, but I might just have to do it.  If for the hope that they finally lose and then I don’t have to worry about them until next year.  That may be a big deciding factor when I make my Divisional Round picks later this week.  (0-1)

The Saints eeked the win in Philly and was not impressive, in my opinion.  I’ll be picking the Seahawks next week (and wagering on it, in fact) simply because I didn’t see enough from the Saints to make me think that they can compete against the top tier of this tournament on the road – us, Carolina, Seattle, and Green Bay.  While I wanted the Eagles to win, for seeding purposes, I was concerned with their defense.  When Orton and Matt Cassel can have big games against you, it reasons to suggest that Drew Brees and the Saints can, too.  However, Brees threw a couple of picks and their offense seemed to struggle and stall at times, going 1-4 in the red zone.  That doesn’t build much confidence in me, against the weakest team in the NFC post-season.  Not to hate on the Eagles, but they are an average team from a bad division.  While I don’t advocate for the rules to change, but the Cardinals were much better than them.  I could be talked into the Rams competing, too.  My point? Hearing the talk about how the Saints proved that they can win anywhere is something that I roll my eyes towards.  I was not impressed.  However, I gambled with Philly and they let me down.  (0-2)

The Bengals lost to the Chargers in a game that I didn’t watch but was disappointed to have heard about later.  I just looked to my clinched fist and said: “Dalton!”  I admit it: I have no idea what to expect from the AFC now. As I said in my prediction post, I was going with the Bengals solely because they were (up to this point) undefeated at home and the Chargers looked like they had their hands full with the Chiefs’ reserves last week, in a must-win game.  I sort of expected the Chargers to be more of a “happy to be here” type of team, but now I have to rethink that – since they’re going to Denver next weekend, where they have already won once this season.  As stated, I didn’t watch this game (I don’t get CBS very well at my place due to the forest outside of my window), plus, I was getting ready for my own game.  But, hearing that the Chargers won, convincingly, was disappointing.  (0-3)

Starting off 0-3 and with our struggles early on, had me concerned that I was set up for a sweep but then…

My Niners pulled off the clutch win at Green Bay, and all was worth while.  I have no problem losing games, but I prefer to win the ones that mean the most to me.  It was an ugly game, both in the fact that the refs were not calling much of anything* (5 TOTAL penalties in the ENTIRE GAME….) and that, for whatever reason, our offense couldn’t get in rhythm for most of the game.  Burning time outs here and there because guys were lined up in the wrong positions, or thought that someone else was supposed to be in motion, it was not a pretty game. I am hoping (and believe, based on our offense moving smoothly prior to today) that it was just a side effect of the cold or something like that.  We definitely will have the toughest road through the post-season this year having to go through Green Bay in frigid conditions, then going up against a very good and physical Carolina team, before being rewarded with another epic show down with an equally physical and very good Seattle team, if we are to make it to New Jersey in 3 weeks.  It is going to be tough but I think that we have a shot at it.  I’m glad to have came out of there with the win, it gives some confidence that we can play anywhere AND that we can finally answer adversity and win the game with offense instead of needing our defense to bail us out.  That was probably the biggest thing that I pulled from that game.  In recent history, when the opposing team has driven down and tied the game with 5 minutes left, we would either get nothing or get a FG and give them the ball back with an opportunity to tie or go for the win.  Not today, though.  Today, we got the first downs when we needed them and were able to run out the clock to the situation where Rodgers was not going to be able to beat us (in regulation, at least).  We are a tough team and it’ll be a tough road, so hopefully we can build on the momentum of our 7th straight win as we head to Carolina next weekend.  #GoNiners (1-3)

*I will write to greater length on my criticism of NFL officiating, it needs to be ranted upon.

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That will do it for a Wild Card Weekend, and I’ll aim to have my picks up for the Divisional Round later this week.

-Ryan.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

Ho-ly mo-ly…. having Wednesday off mere days before the start of the playoffs is tough and cruel thing to have the mind endure.  It really threw me off…repeatedly.  I kept thinking that it was Saturday and then getting continually bummed out when I realized that it was only Wednesday…AND, not only were the playoffs not starting, BUT that I had two full days of work between me and Wild Card Weekend.  So disappointing.

But, alas, it’s now Friday night, I have survived the final two days of my week, and am mere hours away from the start of the playoffs!!

My Wild Card Weekend Picks:

Saturday, to me, are the low-key games that, oddly, are both on NBC.  I don’t know how NBC got in on this action.  I figured it would have been the domain of CBS & FOX, but that’s how it goes sometimes, I suppose.  Naturally, I am much more interested in the NFC games this weekend, but I will make picks (albeit, largely uninformed picks, haha) for the AFC, as well.  Speaking of which…

Chiefs @ Colts-

The AFC’s Saturday game is (at least out here) flying well under the radar.  I’m not sure what to expect from this game.  On the one-hand, we have the Chiefs who I seemed to have been pretty spot on with my 10-6, Wild Card pre-season pick (they’re 11-5), and so, rolling with my pre-season prediction, the Chiefs have a berth in the Super Bowl awaiting them in a month. But then there are the Colts who I don’t like, and who are responsible for more losses in my Pick Em League this year than any other team, so they are wildly unpredictable (for me).  BUT they did play and beat the Chiefs in KC a few weeks ago, so now having them at home is kind of concerning for the Chiefs.  At the same time, the Colts also got blown out by the Rams at home this year (one of the many times I got burned by the Colts).  So, short story: I don’t have trust in the Colts in any environment.

I haven’t seen any of the Chiefs’ games this season, thus, I am not sure how they lost at home to the Colts.  I don’t know if it was just a bad game, if Andrew Luck had one of his seemingly-signature comeback wins; I know that the Chiefs’ defense was banged up there for a little bit – so maybe that was the edge that the Colts needed?  In any matter, I am going to go with the Chiefs here for, really, just a few reasons:

1) I picked them to win the AFC.  Sure, it may have been an implausible pick in August, and may still be an implausible pick heading into the playoffs, but when you predict a 2-14 team one year to go 10-6 and be a Wild Card team the next year…and they end up going 11-5 and being a Wild Card team, you stick with them.  Or, at least that’s what I am going to do.

2) The Chiefs’ offense I think will step up.  I think that they will get Charles involved early and often, through a variety of looks.  People talk badly about Smith but he’s a solid QB.  He can make plays when he needs to and I am thinking/hoping that the Andy Reid has just been keeping it basic in order for the new offense to mesh during the regular season.  I anticipate and expect them to open it up more in the post-season where, really, everyone is beatable.  The AFC is wide open, I think, and so the Chiefs need just 3 wins to make me look like a genius.

3) Chiefs’ defense will get physical.   I read that injuries and typical wear-and-tear of the NFL season was one of the stated causes of the Chiefs’ skid in the latter half of the season (sure, 5 of their final 7 were against Playoff-bound teams; two also being division rivals), BUT by having a “bye week” last week, I think that it should help getting their defense ready to play a physical game – because I think that is what they are going to need to do.  Luck – who, I think, is a lot like Rodgers – may not have big-name receivers (save for Hilton), but he puts his receivers in positions to make plays.  And, like Rodgers, I think the way to beat them is to make life difficult for Luck and keep him in the pocket.  I think that the Chiefs’ line will be able to apply pressure, while the secondary disrupts routes/timing, and brings a physical game to the Colts.  I think that is how they are beaten.

While I cannot be confident with this pick – as the Colts have been a menace to my picking this season – I am hoping that it is the last time that I have to pick a Colts game this season.  Chiefs over Colts.

Saints @ Eagles-

I really want the Eagles to win this game.  I don’t know yet if I will pick them, though, but I really do want them to win.  Normally, I would take the Eagles without hesitation, and bank solely on the Saints inability to perform well outside in the elements.  But, two things: 1) the Eagles did not look impressive against the Cowboys last weekend; and 2) Foles is making his playoffs debut, and I’m not sure how he will respond to the pressure of the higher-intensity game.  From what little I hear/read about him, is that a lot of commentators and “experts” seem to think that he is the real deal, and has potential to be a great QB in this League.  Let’s hope so.

Sure, last week was a divisional game, and I think that we can all agree to cut some slack in the divisional games.  And, sure, Dallas had as much to play for in that game as the Eagles did – so they were giving it their all to win.  Both of those statements are very true.  However, Dallas’ oft-mocked incompetent defense looked awfully competent against the Eagles’ high-flying offense.  AND, furthermore, Orton stepped in and put up big numbers on the Eagles’ defense – which I thought was better than maybe it actually is.  Looking at their season to this point, they’ve allowed a lot of points, and sometimes not to offenses that you’d expect.  If Orton can come in with a week’s preparation and have so much success with Dallas’ offensive weapons, it makes it quite plausible to suggest that Brees would be able to replicate.  So, that worries me.

At the same time, though, the Saints defense isn’t as good as they have been in the past.  Also, their offense is banged up – I believe Thomas has been declared out, Jimmy Graham (I’m told by Saints fans) is not 100%, and they are heading outside into a cold and snowy environment.  While I read, I believe, that Brees is 2-3 (or somewhat close to 0.500) in freezing temperatures, their offense doesn’t perform at the same level in the cold as they do in a dome.  While the Eagles defense may not be as good as I thought, if the Saints offense performs at 80% of its potential, that may be all the Eagles’ defense needs in order to get the win.

I want to play the Seahawks in the Divisional Round, and the only way that can happen (presuming that we win, of course) is if the Saints lose.  I think that if the Saints win in Philly tomorrow, then the Seahawks just about clinch the Conference. Mark my words: the Saints do not stand a chance in Seattle in the Divisional Round.  They are completely over-matched and incapable of exploiting the ‘Hawks weaknesses.  Furthermore, the Saints are not physical enough of a team to even do the other side of the bracket a solid, and weaken the ‘Hawks.  The Saints winning tomorrow, I think, gives the ‘Hawks a big advantage in the post-season.

Even if the Packers beat us on Sunday, I don’t see them running a gauntlet of the 49ers, Panthers, and Seahawks (the latter two on the road) and coming out victorious.  Rodgers may be back and, yes, their offense is more potent now, but they are not a contender this year, in my opinion.  The Panthers may have a shot (if playing the Packers in the Divisional Round) of beating Seattle on the road for the Conference Championship, but I don’t know what to expect from the Panthers who, by and large, are an inexperienced playoff team.  They are a solid team, no doubt; but I don’t know how they will handle the pressure of the post-season.  I would like a show down with the Seahawks in the Divisional Round because I believe that we are built in a matter that can beat them in Seattle (or at least make it a challenge).  So, with that said, I’m picking the Eagles and going for them even harder.  Eagles over Saints.

That will conclude our Saturday games, and onto the Sunday lineup…

Chargers @ Bengals-

Again, not being terribly familiar with either of these teams, I am going to pick the Bengals and for two reasons:  1) They were undefeated at home this year; and 2) the way that the Chargers had trouble with the Chiefs’ reserves is rather concerning for them.

I’m sure that we can talk about the Division Games (like how I gave Philly a pass earlier, haha), but it’s completely different – in my opinion – when you are playing for the last spot in the playoffs, and you’re going up against a team (granted, division rival) who has sat, I believe, 19 of their 22 starters….and you need OT to win?? AND a missed penalty that, reasonably, could have given them the opportunity to STILL win, despite resting 19 of their 22 starters.  That is concerning.  While I hear a lot of talk about Andy Dalton and how the Bengals’ defense has had to carry the load for them this year, covering for some of his mistakes/turnovers, and that is concerning – you don’t want your QB to be the question mark of your post-season – Dalton doesn’t concern me as much as the Chargers’ performance did in Week 17.  Team that with the fact that the Bengals are at home, where they haven’t lost this year, and you get my pick for this game.  Bengals over Chargers.

49ers @ Packers-

People, I think, are giving the cold weather too much press.  Last time I checked, it’s going to be -15F (or -25F from some sources) on both sides of the field.  And, I think it was one of the Packers’ linemen that said once you get below 0F, it’s just cold.  No one is going to be more “used to it” than anyone else.  I think that the conditions may help us out a little bit by taking the crowd out of the game because, honestly, that is a terrible environment to have to play in, let alone observe.  And, I reckon it will be difficult to make a lot of noise when bundled up to the maximum extent possible.  Granted, we haven’t played in THAT cold of weather before, but this unit has had cold weather games in the recent past, and I don’t recall our performance being hampered by it.

The key to this game — which sounds obvious, I know — is executing.  I think that we are the superior team, and I don’t think many people will argue that.  So, as long as we execute and play 49er football, we should be able to win this game.  Should be.  Rodgers, in my opinion, is the best QB in the League…when healthy.  I’m told that he is healthy and that he played well against the Bears, but we are not the Chicago Bears. Our defense is one of the best in the League and we also match-up well against the Packers (or, at least, in the last few meetings that we have had).  And, I don’t know how much the weather (i.e. cold and wind) will affect the passing game – which, undoubtedly, where Rodgers & the Packers have the big advantage.  I think the best scenario for us is to run the ball, let our big guys up front do the work, and short, high-percentage passes to receivers and let them do the work (which is, likely, what Green Bay’s game plan will likely be). Lacey shows promise of being a solid back, but I think that our front will be able to clog the lanes and make it tough for him to play.  I also read that he is opting to not wear sleeves — so as to eliminate a layer of clothing between his arm and the ball, out of fear for fumbling — and I don’t know if that is a great decision.  I’ve never been in temperatures that cold, but, I imagine, that exposed skin probably will lose feeling quickly — and if you’re cradling a ball against a numb bicep while the likes of Patrick Willis is ripping and tearing at it, I think it could lead to turnovers.

What we need to do, I think, is control the clock, keep the chains moving, keep their defense freezing on the field, and finish drives off with TDs.  Even though Dawson has been reliable this season, I think that if we can jump out to a big lead in this game, and keep their defense out in the elements for long stretches of time, that it puts the game heavily in our favor.  If we can get the game to a point when we can pin back our ears and focus on Rodgers, and make them one-dimensional, then I think we have a very good chance at winning this game.  He is the one that is going to win (or lose) this game for the Packers, so if we can get the game into a position that he has to take the reigns, I think that our defense will rise to the occasion and get us our first road win of this playoff season.  49ers over Packers.

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I am excited to get this weekend started and head out on the journey to Super Bowl XLVIII.  I am hoping for some good games and, ideally, things breaking the way that I want them to, as well.   Go Niners!

-Ryan.

NFL Week 17 Picks

Salutations Good People,

I need to go (an improbable) 14-2 in order to achieve my goal of 170 wins on the season.  While improbable, I’ve come this far and I’m not going to give up!  170 in 2013!!! (My Excel datasheet, for the season, predicts that I’ll finish with 166 wins…with a logically smug look).  That said, it will be some tough sledding and I’ll need a few post-Christmas Miracles to go my way, but, by and large, I am comfortable with this offering.  Onto my picks…

NFL Week 17 Picks:

Panthers @ Falcons-

The Falcons played a great game against us on Monday night and almost pulled out a huge win for them.  I think that we overlooked the Falcons a little bit, as was apparent that – despite the undoubted talent advantage that we had, on both sides of the ball – our offense couldn’t get clicking, and our defense made some very rare big-play mistakes.  Why we were playing 10yds off Roddy White, knowing that he is faster than all of our secondary and the one guy that Matt Ryan likes to throw to more than anyone else on the team, with a penchant for the long ball, is beyond me.  I also don’t know why we had Bowman out there on the “Hands Unit” to recover that punt.  But, anyway, the Falcons opened some eyes on Monday night as they came very close to earning a big win on the road.  However, the Panthers know the Falcons and they are playing pretty well themselves, PLUS will secure the division title AND the 2-seed with a win.  Because it’s a divisional game, and Tony Gonzalez’ last game in the NFL, I imagine it will be an emotional game and hard fought, but I still like the Panthers coming into Atlanta and handling their business.  They’re a young, hungry team with a defense firing on all cylinders right now and an offense that, despite losing Smith, can make plays and score points.  Panthers over the Falcons.

Ravens @ Bengals-

The Bengals are undefeated at home this season, and are eyeing an outside-chance of getting a bye week (if the Patriots lose).  The Ravens, on the other hand, are chasing the final Wild Card spot, and, in the Harbaugh-Flacco era, have never missed the playoffs.  While the Ravens have every reason to win, I think that the Bengals at home (with a huge incentive to win, as well) is the deciding factor in this game.  Bengals over Ravens.

Texans @ Titans-

It is the in the Texans’ future best interests to lose this game and secure the #1 overall draft pick. This is a team with a perennial playoff appearance history that had a bad season.  I don’t know what will happen with them – in regards to coaching changes – in the off-season, but they have some talent on the team and getting the #1 overall draft pick could be a big move for them. So, I think that they have every incentive to lose this game, and, especially going on the road, I think that the Titans will hand them that coveted loss.  Titans over Texans.

Jaguars @ Colts-

I would be surprised if the Colts’ starters play the entire game.  If I were to guess, I think that they come out and play hard for the first half or so, and then that is the last we see of them for the game.  The Colts are either going to be the 3- or 4-seed, which still gets them a home game and, probably, only comes into play depending on who finishes 1 and 2.  That said, I think that the Colts will be preparing for a playoff push and give the starters some action early on, so they can keep the wheels greased and mind in game-mode, but I don’t think that we see many of the starters gradually throughout the game.  I especially think this if the Colts jump out to an early lead on the Jags – which is possible, too.  Regardless, I’m picking the Colts in this game but have been impressed in the latter half of the season with the way that the Jags have been playing.  Colts over Jags.

Jets @ Dolphins-

Tannehill’s limited mobility, paired with a likely “kitchen sink” game from the Jets and Rex Ryan (who I think is fired after the season), is what makes this game interesting, to me.  I think that the Dolphins have what it takes to win, ESPECIALLY, when their game plan is simple: Win and In.  Even if the Jets are able to put a ton of pressure on the Tannehill, I think that the Jets are in a tougher position to win this game, and, especially, on the road.  Dolphins over Jets.

Lions @ Vikings-

This is one game that I have no interest in watching and that I have really no idea how I will pick.  It’s hard to believe that the Lions could have ran away with the division with the talent that they have and the small fact that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in almost two months.  But, as seems to be the trend with the Lions, they faltered towards the end.  I don’t know what to expect from the Vikings – who, I believe, have Matt Cassel as their QB now – but I think that they still want to play football and, more importantly, win games.  The Lions seem like they’ve given up, or that they view the season as a loss (which it is).  I read somewhere that Calvin Johnson is banged up and so that may limit the Lions’ offensive plans, but I also don’t think that the Vikings are very good.  I’m going to side with the home team on this one and go with the Vikings, although, I’m not comfortable with it, and this is my “Going Out on a Limb” Game of the Week.  Vikings over Lions.

Redskins @ Giants-

I think that Cousins makes this game interesting.  RGIII hasn’t looked good this year, as if he isn’t 100% healthy from that knee injury last season (which I hold the management responsible for; they shouldn’t have let him play in that Wild Card game), and it has hurt the ‘Skins all season.  Cousins, while not the dual-threat that RGIII is/was, I think can stabilize the offense and make plays; especially against the Giants.  Speaking of which, I don’t know what is up with the Giants.  I saw the highlights (lowlights?) from the Seattle game and some of those picks that Eli was throwing were terrible.

I think that this game comes down to turnovers.  If Eli & Co. give up another handful of turnovers, then the Redskins have a shot at winning this game.  They, the Redskins, really have nothing to lose, at this point, except pride…and maybe their head coach…who is probably going to be fired at the end of the season regardless of the outcome.  Actually, I guess the same could be said for the Giants, too.  Giants over Redskins.

Browns @ Steelers-

I was trying to think of a scenario in which I think that the Browns can win this game, but I don’t see it happening.  The Steelers are playing better right now whereas the Browns are looking at a top 5 pick in the 2014 Draft.  I like the Steelers in this game.  Steelers over Browns.

Packers @ Bears-

Having Aaron Rodgers back is big for the Packers, but I’m not sure how much of a boost they will get, overall.  I read that Rodgers has been throwing in practice for the past month or so, and thus it not expected that he will be rusty, but we’ll see.  He hasn’t been in a game environment in almost 2 months, and is making his return on the road, against a team that needs this win just as much as he does.  Rodgers is the best QB in the NFC, though, and a Super Bowl champion, so I don’t think it will take long for him to get comfortable in the game – presuming he starts out rusty.  But, the Packers’ defense is what has me concerned.  Being in Chicago, and facing the passing attack that the Bears’ have, would concern me – if I were a Packers’ fan.  While the Packers have undoubtedly struggled offensively with Rodgers injured, their defense hasn’t done much to help them in some of these games, either, and that’s what I think it comes down to.  While I’m not comfortable with it, and am already regretting it, I’ll go against the seeming conventional wisdom that I hear and pick the Bears in this game.  Bears over Packers.

Broncos @ Raiders-

I’m going with the Broncos in this game.   For one, the Broncos need to win because if they lose, and the Patriots win (like I predict), then they also lose home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Also, Peyton Manning is out to set records this season, so there is that added motivation.  Oh, and, lastly, it is the Raiders.  I have been off on the Raiders this season but even with Miller out, and so I think that Denver’s defense will be vulnerable from here on out, I don’t think that the Raiders have the talent to exploit those vulnerabilities.  Broncos over Raiders.

Bills @ Patriots-

The Patriots are banged up…but still, amazingly, finding ways to win games, and convincingly, too.  They clinched their division and, now, are just playing for the 2-seed, which I think that they really need.  If the Bengals win, and the Patriots lose, then the Patriots (likely) get to host the rested Chiefs in the Wild Card round.  Ergo, I like the Patriots in this game.  I think that they execute another great game plan, and lock up the 2-seed and make the most of the bye week.  Patriots over Bills.

Buccaneers @ Saints-

While I think that the Buccs are a solid team, I think that next year they will be more competitive.  They have played some tough games, and played them well, and, namely, their performance in Seattle – which is much more difficult to play in than New Orleans – gives them a puncher’s chance of an upset in this game.  However, the Saints need this game.  I don’t think that they can get the 2-seed, because, as stated, I don’t think that the Panthers will lose to the Falcons, but you never know, and the Saints are professionals and a seasoned team that is going to play hard just in case.  They also need this game because if they lose, I don’t think that they make the playoffs, with the Cardinals right behind them and, in my opinion, the favored team at home against my 49ers.  While I expect the Buccs to come in and play a good game, I also thought that about the Panthers, and that didn’t work out so well.  I’m going with the Saints in this one because they play much better at home than they do on the road, and this game means everything to them.  Saints over Buccs.

49ers @ Cardinals-

I’m not sure what to expect with this game because there isn’t really anything on the line (realistically), in my opinion.  We need to win and have the Seahawks lose at home, again, in order to secure a bye-week; both of those are tall orders.  The way that the Cardinals are playing right now is really a blessing and a travesty that they, likely, will not be in the playoffs – unless they beat us and, some how, the Saints lose at home (the latter of which I don’t think is likely to happen).  That said, we have locked up our appearance in the post-season which is what you want, first and foremost.  Once in, anything is possible.

Especially with the physicality that the Cardinals most certainly are going to bring, I wouldn’t be surprised if we rested people and let some of our support roles get some playing experience against a very good team.  I say this because — sparing an unprecedented Seattle late-season collapse — we are going to have 4 road games to prepare for (yes, I’m aiming high, haha), so why get our bodies beaten up to start a 4-game road trip?  If it were me, I’d play our starters like normal – so that they get some reps and keep that game-mentality flowing – for the first half, UNLESS the Rams are hanging in there with the Seahawks.  If the Rams are winning or staying competitive in Seattle, then we have to keep playing to win.  But, if it’s like the Saints game up there and the Seahawks are dominating early, I would shut down our starters, as the game would no longer mean anything to us, and preventing injury and/or unnecessary fatigue would be our top priority.  PLUS, getting some of our support players some playing time is always a good thing – you never know when they may be needed.

I know what to expect from the Cardinals: they are going to come out and play hard because, they still have to keep playing and trying to win.  While I don’t think that they are going to make the playoffs — since I don’t see the Saints losing at home on Sunday — they are not quitters and so they are going to play hard until their season is officially over.  And I also know that they are a physical team, on both sides of the ball, and so I expect a lot of hard hits and physicality throughout the game.  I think that the Cardinals are going to win this game simply because they need it more than we do.  However, I am okay with that.  As I’ve said, I think that we are a better road team this year than a home team (which is weird), so I feel oddly confident about us playing on the road.  Cardinals over my 49ers.

Chiefs @ Chargers-

A few weeks ago, the Chargers went into Arrowhead and got the win from the Chiefs.  I read somewhere that the Chiefs plan on playing a blend of starters and reserves in this game, as their focus is on being healthy for the post-season; as winning (or losing) this game does nothing for them: they’re the 5-seed regardless, and, likely heading to Indy for a rematch.  While I don’t think that the Chargers will make the playoffs, I think that they will be playing for the chance to make the playoffs.  Primarily because of hearing of the Chiefs’ personnel plans, I’m going with the Chargers in this game – they are at home and have more to play for.  Simple enough.  Chargers over Chiefs.

Rams @ Seahawks-

I think that people put way too much into Seattle’s home-field advantage.  Is it good? Yes.  Are they invincible? No.  And they weren’t invincible prior to the Cardinals winning there last weekend.  Teams can play the Seahawks hard in Seattle, but, prior to last weekend, the Seahawks have done what good teams do: find a way to win.

Of their 7 home games thus far this year, 3 have been true blow outs, but the other 4 have been tough games.  In Week 2, we went up to Seattle and played them tough despite having Kyle Williams (who isn’t on our team anymore) as a starting WR – to show how far down our depth chart, offensively, we were digging.  Yes, the final score of that game was 29-3, and some call it a ‘blow out’, but the final score is misleading: it was 5-0 at halftime, and 12-3 going into the 4th quarter.  Our defense had held their offense to 10 points through 3 quarters – despite offensive stalls and turnovers – before collapsing in the 4th.  You can’t ask for much more from a defense on the road, in my opinion.  The Titans then went into Seattle and hung in that game for 3.5 quarters, before the ‘Hawks eventually put them away – Titans lost by 7.  They had the then-winless Buccs go up to Seattle and dominate for most of that game, BUT, again, they eventually battled back and won in OT – on a decision that I question in the new OT era.  And, then, they finally got a team who was playing hot and had the talent necessary, and knowledge of how, to finish the game, and lost to the Cardinals.  So, while I figured that – as in the prior games – the Seahawks would eventually find a way to win, their loss to the Cardinals was not surprising to me; the ‘Hawks were due for a loss.

That said, can the Rams beat them there?  Yes.  I think that they can.  The NFC West, the best division in all of football, is a collection of teams who are built similarly and know each other very well.  And, the Rams are not a slouch team, either.  They’ve had some impressive wins this season….to go with some impressive losses, too, haha.  I’m not sure which Rams team will show up on Sunday, but when the Rams hosted the ‘Hawks earlier in the season, their defense dominated the Seahawks’ offense (holding them to NEGATIVE yards in the first quarter), while their RBs had no problem finding huge holes in the ‘Hawks defense.  Will that happen again? Probably not.  But don’t sleep on the Rams.  I am always scared of the Rams; especially a “mediocre” Rams team who knows the division incredibly well, and has nothing to lose, and everything to gain by making a huge statement upset.  If my 49ers weren’t playing at the same time, I’d want to watch this game; I won’t be surprised if it becomes a kitchen-sink game where the Rams show all sorts of crazy stuff that has never been seen before.

However, because my goal is 14-2 on the week, I am going with my head on this pick (instead of my gut) and picking the Seahawks at home.  I won’t be surprised if the Rams pull off the upset, but I also don’t see the Seahawks losing back-to-back home games.  Seahawks over Rams.

Eagles @ Cowboys-

I don’t think that Romo being out this game will change the outcome.  In a one-game showdown to get into the playoffs (as this, realistically, is; the Cowboys are not a contender in the Conference), Orton is competent enough to win the game.  However, just like with Romo, I think that he will struggle to compensate for the Cowboys’ atrocious defense.  Against an Eagles offense that is on a tear, I don’t think that the Cowboys’ defense can make the stops or plays necessary to keep them in this game.  I’m kind of surprised that this was selected as the Sunday Night Football game; it should have been one of the NFC West games, in my (biased) opinion.  Eagles over Cowboys.

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There we go.  The finale to the 2013 NFL regular season is upon us and, once again, the magic number, this week, is “14”.  If I get to 170 wins, I’ll get a commemorative cake, or something, and share it with all of you….pictures, that is.  I’ll share pictures.  I enjoy cake too much.

-Ryan.