Salutations Good People,

After many long months, I am back at my desk and getting ready to make my picks for the week.  Last year, I had the goal of 170 wins during the season…. and I fell juuuuust short (169 wins).   It really was just one bad week that I had last season that not only robbed me of my 170-win goal BUT robbed me of shattering it.  That said, Week 1 is always a little dicey simply because I really only pay attention to a few teams, and so, Week 1, is my first opportunity to sit down and see what the rest of the League is offering.  For those who didn’t follow my picks last year, I’m not a journalist and I am open with my biases; I’ll give my thoughts on the match-up where I feel inspired to, but, ultimately, I’m just picking who I think will win.  Usually, I’m right — however, I don’t gamble so what does my accuracy really matter?  It’s all for good fun.

Here are my picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Picks

Packers @ Seahawks –

We have gotten a fair dosing of the “Fail Mary” story in the past week, leading up to this game, but hopefully it is long past.  This game is a tough one.  “Fail Mary” aside, the Packers played well in Seattle the last time that they were up there; for it being the first game of the season, too, I reckon that everyone is healthy and ready to go (except for BJ Raji, but I hear that he may be more of a big name on the defense than a big factor… I don’t know, though; I don’t follow the Packers that closely).  It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers (even if up against a great pass-defense) and now that he has a reliable running game, as well, there’s nothing in me that thinks that the Packers do not have a chance at winning this game.  I think that they do have a chance.  That said, the NFC West has had the Packers’ number as of late, especially in exploiting the Packers’ often-porous defense — most notably with my beloved 49ers and Colin Kaepernick: the Packer Killer.  While I’m not comfortable with the pick, I’m going to go with the Seahawks at home, simply because I’d rather pick them and have them lose (and take the loss in my Picks) than I would picking the Packers and having them lose AND taking the loss in my Picks — then I’ve just screwed my night.  At least this way, I’ll have some silver lining at the end of the night…. but I’m not confident on this pick.  Seahawks over Packers.

Saints @ Falcons –

While I think that the Falcons will bounce back this year — sure, they may not have much of a running game and their defense is suspect, but they’ll have Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, and that has to be worth a few wins — I think that the Saints are going to win the division and also get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, on the NFC side of the coin.  With Graham happy, Brees having some weapons (and, I believe, he is recovered from his abdominal strain by now), plus they have reinforced their defense, I think that they will win this game.  I’m not sold on the Falcons whereas I am sold on the Saints.  Saints over Falcons.

Vikings @ Rams –

I think that the beginning of this season is going to be tough sledding for the Rams.  Losing Bradford like they did, when they did, and now having to build the offense around Shaun Hill is a bit of a challenge.  Sure, they have a good running game but Hill is the wild card; I don’t know what to expect from him.  Meanwhile, I see a lot of promise with the Vikings — I don’t think that they’ll make the playoffs this year but I think that they could turn some heads as the season goes along.  I think that, despite the tough predicament the Rams are in, I’ll go with the Rams in this game simply because their defense is one of the best; quietly one of the best.  They have a great pass-rush and if the Vikings are rolling with Cassel as their guy in Week 1, I like the Rams defense against him.  Rams over Vikings.

Browns @ Steelers –

I’m going Steelers.  Not because I have a lot of faith in the Steelers (even though Big Ben and Tomlin are due for a good season) but simply because Cleveland appears to be a circus right now; I have no faith in them.  Which is exactly how I like it. (Side Note: I put a curse on the city of Cleveland some 7yrs ago; so far, so good. End Side Note.)  Steelers over Browns.

Jags @ Eagles –

From the highlights that I saw from the preseason (as well as how they performed down the stretch last year), I think that the Jags may have a chance in the AFC this year.  By “have a chance” I mean that I think that they can put together a respectable season; maybe not playoff-bound but I think that they could be good enough to be a spoiler team for other teams that are on the post-season bubble.  That said, I think that the Eagles will win the NFC East this year (again) and I’ll take their fast-paced offense, at home, over the Jags.  Eagles over Jags.

Raiders @ Jets –

The Raiders appear to be a mess.  While the Jets may not be in a much better situation, I still think that they are better than the Raiders (with Smith or Vick) and, being at home, I am going to go with the Jets in this game.  Jets over Raiders.

Bengals @ Ravens –

This could be a fun game.  The Bengals, I think, have more talent than the Ravens — but the Bengals also tend to not perform well when I want them to, haha.  I have more questions about the Ravens, though, than I do the Bengals.  And so I’m going to ride with the Bengals in this game, with their defense, and that Andy Dalton usually performs well during the regular season….. but I’m not 100% confident on this pick.  Bengals over Ravens.

Bills @ Bears –

I’m going to go with the Bears in this game simply because I haven’t heard anything about the Bills’ defense.  Everything seems to be focused on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins (who may or may not be nursing a rib injury from the preseason).  Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense could be pretty explosive this season, and I think that could cause problems for the Bills.  I don’t have much faith in the Bears’ defense, either, but — if looking at two teams with unimpressive defenses — I’ll take the offense that is stocked with proven veterans over the youthful offense that is banking a lot on the production from a (potentially not 100% healthy) rookie WR.  Bears over Bills.

Redskins @ Texans –

The only football-related story that I have heard coming out of DC this summer is the questions surrounding if RGIII is going to be healthy to start the season.  I don’t follow them closely and so I haven’t heard much — one way or the other — with any great deal of confidence.  That said, being on the road and going up against a potentially great pass rush (in Watts and Clowney) does make me concerned for RGIII, especially if he does not have his mobility.  Unlike other “mobile” QBs, I don’t think that RGIII can play well without mobility; I think that is a much bigger part of his game than the other “mobile” QBs.   I have a lot of questions about the Texans’ offense (ex. I have no idea who their starting QB is going to be…but it doesn’t seem like they have a solid pick, either…and that’s never good)….but I’d say it’s almost on par with the amount of questions that I have on the Redskins’ defense.  Ergo, I’ll take the superior defense/pass rush and the home team:  Texans over Redskins.

Titans @ Chiefs –

Last season, as you may recall, I was big on the Chiefs.  They had been a terrible team in the recent pass…but consistently had 8 or so Pro Bowl players on their team…..so they had talent but lacked a reliable QB and solid coaching.  Then they got Reid and Alex Smith, addressing both of those areas…. and for the first half of the season they were making me look like a genius, haha. Even though they stumbled as the season progressed and, ultimately, got bit (with a vengeance) by the Injury Bug in that playoff game in Indy, I felt as though they lived up to my expectations.  This year, though, I’m not sure.  No one seems to be talking about them — everyone is occupied with the Broncos (obviously) and there’s a bit of buzz around the Chargers, I hear as well; but I don’t know why the Chiefs can’t be competitive.  If anything, given another year with the offense, Alex Smith and the rest of those pieces should be clicking better; their defense hasn’t changed all that much from last year, either, I don’t believe.   However, for as quiet as the Chiefs have been this off-season and preseason, the Titans have been quieter (in my world).  Ergo, I’ll stick with the home team in this one, simply because the Titans are not on my radar as a team to look out for in the AFC this season.  Chiefs over Titans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

I don’t follow the Dolphins, really, but I know that last year they had the whole media circus revolving Incognito and Martin, and that probably did have some impact on their performance.  Meanwhile, the Patriots had an incredibly mediocre roster of talent last year….and still won the division….and still made it to the AFC Championship game.  I don’t know if Gronk has been cleared to play (and how many games he will play this season; injury or re-injury seems inevitable) but I imagine that it’s Week 1 and the Patriots are as healthy as they’ll be, so I imagine that they will be able to get this win on the road.  Patriots over Dolphins.

Panthers @ Buccaneers –

The Panthers’ offense has me concerned.  Similar to the Bills, they seem to be relying a lot on young players on offense; really, just two young players on offense.  While I think that Cam Newton is better than EJ Manuel, I believe that Cam is still nursing a rib injury and his ankle may be a concern, plus is O-line is not a strength of the offense. Team that with the departure of Steve Smith and thus a rather unproven receiver corps, I don’t know what to think of their offense.  I reckon that their defense will still be a great defense so they do have that going for them.  Meanwhile, the Buccs have a new head coach, are removed from the QB distraction from last year, and I think could make progress this year within the division.  Because I have a few questions marks surrounding the Panthers’ offense right now, I’m going to stay with the home team and pick the Buccs, and then re-evaluate my opinion of the Panthers after I see them in action.  Buccs over Panthers.

49ers @ Cowboys –

For all of the talk about how my beloved 49ers are in shambles right now (and some media folks even writing them off this season), the word that I keep reading and hearing from players and coaches is that things are just fine; so I’ll trust them on that.  I think that the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the ball against us — passing defense is not our strength, especially when we’ll be without 2 of our best pass-pressure players (Aldon & Bowman), but who knows? Maybe our secondary will be better this year with the changes that we have made?  Regardless, the Cowboys’ defense is supposed to be one of the worst…..ever…..and so I imagine that our offense will be able to move the ball on them, as well.  In that case, I will take the more all-around-talented team and I hope to see some good performances from our younger players: namely, Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James.  49ers over Cowboys.

Colts @ Broncos –

The Colts tempt me in this game.  However, seeing how they needed the Injury Bug to strike KC in that playoff game last season in order to win, coupled with the fact that the Broncos are in full-on Super-Bowl-or-Bust mode right now (with their off-season spending spree), I don’t think that the Broncos are going to come out of the gates with a loss….at home.  My concerns with the Broncos’ veteran additions (and their ability to hold up for the whole season) is irrelevant in Week 1, so I’ll be taking the Broncos at home.  Broncos over Colts.

Giants @ Lions –

The Lions are one of the more talented teams in the League, in my opinion, and perhaps their late-season collapses were more the result of their coaching than of the players on the field? We’ll find out this year, as Jim Caldwell is the new head coach.  I wasn’t impressed with Caldwell when he was at the helm of the Colts but he took that talented team to the Super Bowl….where he was promptly out-coached and the Colts were out-played by the Saints.  That said, I don’t think that the Lions are Super Bowl-bound, but I think that they’ll make the post-season, sure.  Meanwhile, I don’t think that the Giants will do much this year and so I’ll stick with the more talented team, especially while at home in the season-opener.  Lions over Giants.

Chargers @ Cardinals –

I don’t know if I’ve bought into the hype of the Chargers or just have too many questions to back the Cardinals in this game, but in what little action I saw from the Chargers’ starters in their preseason game against us, they seem to be in a good place right now.  Rivers seems happy in the new system, he was making good decisions, high-percentage passes, and such an approach could be successful against the Cards since they lost Dockett and another defensive star on the line.  Patrick Peterson, I believe, is no longer handling punt return duties and we’ll see how the Honey Badger rebounds this season.  Ultimately, though, my questions with the Cards are with Carson Palmer: he hasn’t been the same since his knee got blown out in that playoff game as a Bengal and now, I believe, he is in his upper 30s and I expect his production to fall off this season — but will that drop off start to happen in Week 1? That is the question.   I haven’t made many bold picks this week so I’ll roll with the Chargers in this game and see what happens.  Chargers over Cardinals.

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We’ll see how Week 1 goes and I’ll recap it on Tuesday evening.

-Ryan.