With the NFL season now over, I’m spending my Super Monday — feeling better, recovering from my head cold — looking forward to the off-season ahead. I’ll recap the Super Bowl real quickly because, one, I didn’t watch all of it, and two, there’s nothing that really needs to be said about it ad nauseam…

Super Bowl Recap

The Super Bowl played out a lot like I thought it was going to, with the exception of the turnovers.  I didn’t think that Denver would have so many of them (especially the fumble by Thomas, I believe, who was cradling the ball surprisingly loosely while trying to stiff-arm the defender).  The Broncos looked kind of sloppy, but I don’t think that they expected the game to go like that at all.  It looked like they were caught off guard and didn’t know what was going on.  However, I don’t think that it made too much of a difference.  I think that they were over-matched in that game and the better team won.

I didn’t watch the entire game because I had been battling a head cold since Thursday afternoon and so I stayed up long enough to see the first half and a little bit into the 3rd quarter before deciding to call it a game and go back to bed.  My health was more important to me than watching the Seahawks celebrate.  I don’t know who ended up being the MVP, but I think it was their LB Smith, who got the pick-6, and I am okay with that.  I agree with Joe Buck (or Aikman?) who said that Avril should have been the MVP, but it had to be someone on the defense and so I’m okay with Smith getting it.

That said, with the season now concluded, I took some time this afternoon to put away my Niners gear for the off-season and will wrap up the season with this post about things that I look forward to over the course of the next few months.

49ers OFF-SEASON

I think that we are right up there with Seattle.  That NFC title game came down to a handful of plays that they beat us on, and so I, obviously, like where our team is and it is merely a matter of shoring up some areas of weakness and getting/staying healthy.  But, by and large, I think that we will be ready to go next season.  Here is what I think that our team should have in store:

Free Agency

We have a lot of depth in key areas, and so I don’t think that our Free Agent “issue” is too much of an issue.  Here are the Free Agents that we are looking at:

Offense: C Goodwin; QB McCoy; RB Dixon; WR Manningham; WR Boldin.  I don’t think that Goodwin, Dixon, nor Manningham will be with us next season – unless major changes to deals get made.  Goodwin, I think, can lose out to Kilgore for his spot (even though Kilgore got a DUI or something drinking-related I saw recently), and so I could see us promoting Kilgore and drafting a rookie Center in the Draft for our plans moving forward – I think that move would shave off a million or so.  Dixon is expendable simply because, in my opinion, he doesn’t bring anything unique to our running game, he isn’t very good at pass protection, and we have a crowded backfield as it is.  Gore is certainly on the decline, I think, but we still have Hunter and James, and Lattimore is expected to get some reps next season.  I just don’t see Dixon being kept around.

*Note: While not a Free Agent, I was displeased with James’ recent taking to Twitter (again) and whining about not having enough playing time… despite being our primary return guy nowadays… and so I don’t think that he will be with us next season.  So, Dixon may benefit from this.  If we ship James somewhere else, we may need to keep Dixon as insurance (if nothing else), because Gore is getting up there in age and Lattimore, while I’m told has looked promising, hasn’t played a down of football in almost 2 years.  So, Dixon may get kept simply because James reportedly wants out. *

We’ll probably keep McCoy but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a repeat of this past camp/pre-season where we audition a lot of different QBs for the back-up role – so McCoy may make it past the Draft but I don’t necessarily think that he will be on our roster next year.  Personally, I think that if our offense is going to be now built around a more mobile QB, in Kaepernick, that we should probably have an athletic QB backing him just so that our offense can stay consistent, in the event that Kaepernick goes down.  I think that Manningham is done; not really his fault – bad injuries – but he didn’t bring as much to our receiver corps as we had thought/hoped when we signed him last season, and so I think that we are going to part ways with him.  It may not be a bad idea to try to redo the WR corps with younger guys as it is. Which I immediately contradict next…haha…

Which leaves, my man, Anquan “Grown Man” Boldin – I hope that we keep him.  I would really like to see (at least) one more year with him on our team.  I have read reports that, at 33yrs old, he’s going to be too expensive to keep on at his current salary, and that it would be better – financially – to use that money to extend upcoming contracts (like Crabtree’s)…and I don’t know if I agree with that.  I’m 100% biased because I like Boldin; I like his style of play; I like what he brings to our offense; I like the mentorship that he offers to our young receivers; and I like how well he was able to step up and play for us when we didn’t have anyone else to step up and play.   And, it may be unpopular to state but, I don’t know if we should invest in Crabtree long term.

Others may have forgotten – but I haven’t, haha – how he held out as a rookie.  I hope that he’s grown up more between now and then, but if he wants a huge contract that costs us other talent, I’d be okay with trading him.  Our offense isn’t what wins us games (right now), and while I think that he is a talented receiver, look at the receivers who just beat us – especially, Doug Baldwin.  Undrafted, making, I believe, $700k a year, for the next few years.  Unless our offense is going to shift to a pass-first offense (which the addition of Lattimore doesn’t make me think that is the long-term plan), then I don’t think that we need marquee names at the WR position.  Patton showed promise in the latter part of the season; maybe Jon Baldwin will finally show up next season;  maybe we can find prospects in the Draft.  I just hope that we don’t handcuff ourselves to Crabtree at the risk of losing other critical pieces.

Tangent aside, I hope that we can work something out with Boldin to somehow keep him on our team.

Defense: CB Brown; CB Rogers; S Whitner; CB Wright; LB Wilhoite; DL/TE Dobbs.  I think that we should definitely keep Whitner and Eazy-E (Wright).  I don’t know what financial figures that they are going to demand, but if we can lock Wright up for another inexpensive contract, that would be HUGE for us.  With Culliver coming back next season, if we can have a secondary with him, Wright, Reid, Whitner, and Brock… that’s not too bad.  Definitely look to draft some DBs, too.  But I think that we definitely cut ties with Rogers and Brown – I think that they both are too expensive, for us, at this point, especially with how well Brock stepped up this season and the anticipated return of Culliver.

Wilhoite and Dobbs are interesting because I liked both of them this season, and if the price is right, I think we should keep them. However, our LBs are solid (right now – I don’t know what will happen to Aldon in terms of legal issues), AND Lemonier showed talent when filling in for Aldon this season, as did Skuta.  So, I think that Wilhoite may be a cap casualty.  Likewise, our D Line is also a strong point for us, I think, when we get Ian Williams back from injury next year, then we will have him and Dorsey, Justin Smith, Tank Carradine, and, I’m hopeful, LAWRENCE OKOYE – yes, despite having no idea how to pronounce his name, I am a HUGE believer in this guy, with this coaching staff.  A 22yo, 6’6″, 284lbs multi-sport athlete (in Britain) who ran a 4.84 in the 40yd dash, and possesses a 3ft vertical jump….. geez, if we can incorporate him into our D line unit, we could cause a lot of problems for opposing offensive lines.  After sitting out this whole season, my hope is that we can get him involved next year.  Can you imagine??  I can. And it is exciting.  All of that said, I think that – unless the price is really right – we part ways with both Wilhoite and Dobbs… unless something happens with Aldon Smith or we aren’t confident in our replacements for Bowman (who, last I heard, was likely out until at least next November – at the very earliest).

Special Teams:  ST Osgood;  K Dawson.  While Osgood had some big plays for us on special teams this season, I agree with some of the reports that I’ve read that he is, really, just a special teams specialist for us – and so we may draft someone to do the job cheaper.  So, I don’t think that Osgood will be with us next season.  I do, however, think that we bring Dawson back.  He was reliable and clutch for us this year.  And if our offense is going to be predicated around kicking as many FGs as we have in the past (haha), we should keep a reliable kicker.

So, that is where I believe that we are headed with our off-season Free Agents.  I don’t know of any Free Agent targets around the League right now, I haven’t looked into other teams’ contract situations.

The Draft

I’ve read message boards* from Niner “fans” saying that we should start looking to draft a QB who can “make NFL throws”, and it boggles my mind. I don’t know what these people are watching, but Kaepernick makes some AMAZING throws, and diverse throws, at that.  For example, he has had some beautiful throws on fade routes, and back shoulders; that jump throw to Boldin for a TD was incredible. How many QBs can run forward, have the presence to stop before crossing the line, then do a jump pass, and fire a laser 30yds to the back of the end zone? I think Aaron Rodgers has the arm to do it, but that’s about it, in my opinion.  Kaepernick has the tools to be a good QB – at the very least – but he’s still young, and so he makes young QB mistakes – like that attempt to throw over Chancellor’s head that was picked. (Although, to be fair, while I don’t like it, he completes that pass attempt surprisingly more than you’d think – as he did on the next drive.  And, had that been a bad throw, then that’s not just a pick, that’s a pick-6 – so I chalk that up to more of a bad decision/great defensive play as opposed to a bad throw.)

*Message boards are a scary place.  You can see some of the darkest parts of people when writing from the comfort of their computer in relative anonymity.  However, every so often, there is some gold material, too.  It’s a gamble.  But, by and large, it’s the dark stuff – authored by people who, apparently, do not know how to spell, or who prefer to utilize that incredibly annoying text-type-nonsense.

Personally, I think that we were the best team in the NFL at the end of the season – which will certainly irritate Seahawks fans (but that’s just an added bonus -wink-).  We took it to them in Seattle and, on that final drive, I guarantee that everyone watching that game thought that this was a 50/50 game.

That said, in my non-GM opinion, here is our breakdown:

I think that we are good at the QB position; and I think that we are more than good at the RB position;  we are probably good at the TE position – with McDonald playing much better at the end of the season than how he started (naturally);  I think that we are good with our Kicker (if we re-sign Dawson) and Punter; I think that we are good with our LBs (maybe get an insurance policy for Aldon/Bowman); and, if resigning Whitner, as I expect, I think that we are good with our Safeties.

I would like us to look at DBs, WRs, and OL, as our top targets.  First and foremost, I think, is our secondary.  I think that we should draft some DBs, because it is our cover guys that are the weak-link on our defense.  Sparing any unexpected setbacks, if we can get Cully, Brock, and Wright as our main guys next season, we could develop younger talent in the position.  Next, is our O Line: Iupati – if we keep him – is injured and I anticipate that we will let Goody go, in favor of the younger/cheaper Kilgore, so I think that we should look to sign some OL prospects as well because, obviously, your offense is going to struggle if the O Line isn’t very good.  Our WRs have been disappointing and will continue to be so if we lose Boldin (which I hope doesn’t happen).  I don’t think that we should spend top picks on WRs, since our WRs aren’t winning us games, but if we can get some good players at a bargain, then I say let’s do it.  Hopefully, bigger-bodied WRs.  Seattle’s secondary is a physical one, and young, so we’re going to have to compete against them for the next few years, I imagine.  So, we might as well look to invest in 6’3-6’4″ WRs that can match them physically.  Even if it’s just a guy, I think that we need that one.

Those are my thoughts on our Draft needs.

Doubt Colin Kaepernick? I Don’t.

I think that people are being way too hard on Kaepernick.  I am impressed with him, honestly.  He played a solid game – granted, he made some mistakes, but what’s better is that he owned up to them; he shows great leadership qualities and growing maturity at the QB position.  I think that people are quick to forget that: 1) he is only 26yrs old and just finished his first full season as a starter in the NFL – he is going to make mistakes; how many QBs come into this League and play without these mistakes? Not many (if any); and 2) that Seattle is a very good team.  This wasn’t him making mistakes against a 7-9 Wild Card team – we were playing a 14-2 team with the #1 defense in the League, on the road.  So, I have no qualms with the mistakes that he made, since he acknowledged them and, reportedly, spent that next day at the team facility trying to learn from them.  I think that we forget how inexperienced he is because he has taken us through two post-seasons now, that we have the bar held a little too high, perhaps.  I believe that he will improve.

We were always, in my opinion, excessively hard on Alex Smith, too.  Anyone who has ever played football knows how complicated it can be to have to adjust to different coordinators each year, so that was our bad more than Alex’s.  That said, I think that we are being too hard on Kaepernick by expecting him to play at a level that he isn’t at yet.  That said, Kaepernick has a lot of upside for a guy who is still young and only entering his second full-season as a starter. *IF* we can retain Boldin and his off-season training with Patton continues, it could be interesting to see what a full season of Boldin, Crabtree, Patton, & Davis do for him and his continued growth.

That said, I don’t think it’s a personnel problem that we have, it might be something else.

Maybe It’s Greg Roman

When Harbaugh came to town and turned a 6-10 roster into a 13-3 contender, we fell short in the NFC title game.  Why? Because Alex Smith didn’t have any good receivers to throw to – that’s why.  So, what did we do?  We went out and got Manningham, and an eager-to-prove-eager-to-win veteran in Randy Moss to compliment Crabtree, Davis, and Walker.  And when our offense still didn’t impress, until Kaepernick debuted against that bad Bears defense, we determined that it was because Alex Smith wasn’t the right QB for our offense; he wasn’t explosive enough, and that is why our offense was still struggling…. until it continued to struggle clear on through those final terrible plays from the Baltimore 5yd line.  Well, we then determined that we didn’t have Manningham for the post-season (which was why we recruited him, for those big moments in big games) and that Randy Moss was just too old to play – so we went out and got Boldin to replace him.  You see the the trend that I’m getting at?

At some point, when the moving around of personnel pieces doesn’t seem to solve the problem, it’s time to look at other components. Kaepernick runs the plays that are called – that’s his job.  Granted, he has things he needs to work on (i.e. not locking eyes on his intended receiver, allowing everyone in the stadium – let alone on the defense – know where he is throwing), but why call 3 straight passes from the 5yd line when you have a big, dominant offensive line, and a STABLE of running backs???  Even Kaepernick on a keeper is good for 3yds, so long as he falls forward!  I don’t get it.

The reason that we ultimately lost the title game against Seattle this season, I believe, is because of the play-calling.  Some say that it was just botched on all-levels of our offense, from on the field to clock management, but I had no problem with the clock management: we had 2 time outs, 30 seconds on the clock, and were inside their 20 – I was more than fine with that predicament.  Especially, considering Baldwin already had one HUGE return, I did not want to give them the ball back with time to do anything with it.  So I was perfectly content on hitting something over the middle, picking up the first, using a time out and then taking strikes at the end zone until we got it in or time expired.

Going for the home-run, especially against their best defender, with Crabtree (who is not the right match-up for that play), at that point in the game, I believe, was a HUGE mistake.  I like Crabtree.  I think that he is a good receiver, a good play-maker when he gets the ball, but he’s not a physical, jump ball, go-up-and-get-it receiver.  He’s just not.  We saw that last year in the Super Bowl and again in the NFC title game this year. If going to do a fade route/jump ball with the game on the line, I’d much rather see that pass go to Boldin – a man that’s a big-bodied receiver, with strong hands, who likes to be physical, and who has proven he can go up and bring the ball down.  Hit Crabtree on a quick slant and let him move vertically; or drop it to him down the side line and let him make a play with his feet – those are his areas of expertise.  Not a one-on-one showdown with a big, physical corner, who happens to be the best DB in the League.  Crabtree, I think, loses that match-up every…single…time.  It’s not his game.  I think we all know it – Baltimore sure seemed to know it; that’s why they hit and jammed him on all THREE of those pass attempts, because he’s not the type of receiver who can make those plays.

I didn’t have a problem with the pass-call because, clearly, Seattle’s defense had utterly dominated Frankie that day, so a run play wasn’t going to be the answer.  I think he had one “big” run of 9yds, but it was incredibly tough sledding for him that day.  And, from what I’ve seen in the replays, is that they were shading their LBs to give the underneath but keeping an eye on Kaepernick.  However, I would have liked a quick slant or dropping it off to Hunter in the flat, or looking to make a rub with Davis to free Boldin, or Boldin to free Davis on the other side.  We had the personnel and time to come up with a scoring play on that drive, so it is a bummer that we went all-in on the first place and lost.

My point: there were a lot of plays that I think we could have ran more successfully in that situation than the one we picked, and so I think that falls on partially/mostly on Roman.  Also, I didn’t like how we abandoned designed Kaepernick runs in that game when it seemed like their defense had no answer for how to defend him.  Even when spying him with an LB, Kaepernick didn’t seem to have much trouble picking up 12yds a run, and almost broke that long one for a TD.  We have the tendency to give up on things that are working and I’m not entirely sure why.

Oh well.

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Those are my thoughts for things we need to look at during the off-season.  I think that we will be okay next season and, hopefully, we don’t have any health setbacks this off-season like we did last off-season because missing guys in the early part of the season ended up being huge for us when all was said and done — if we beat either the Colts or the Panthers, we would have been the #2 or #1 seed.  That’s how it goes sometimes, though. It was a good year to be a 49er, though, and I look forward to what the 2014 season has in store.

While I don’t anticipate more football posts this season, I’m not ruling it out either.  I thoroughly enjoy this game and so if topics come up, I’ll probably have thoughts of my own on them.  In the meantime, I transition to other sports (hockey and baseball, primarily) that I will comment on AND also commercials, silly ranking lists, and movie commentaries are a lot of what can be expected in the months ahead.  Thanks for reading.  Go Niners!

-Ryan.