Returning After A Break

It’s been awhile – a real long while, actually.  I fell off with my weekly predictions this year — partially because I got a new job and that took over a lot of my free time during the week, and then I was going out for more games on weekends; something had to give, and it was my weekly predictions.

However, I’ll try to come back to it now and make some posts every so often.  I’ve been keeping my posts mostly to Facebook statuses … and I think people are getting annoyed.  Since I know those people (as opposed to strangers reading this from God only knows where), I reckon it’s probably best to send some of my rantings, thoughts, and opinions to this avenue so as not to annoy people that I must see semi-regularly.

Anyway, while I’m not particularly religious – in the sense of subscribing to one doctrine over another – I had sort of made a Lenten sacrifice (sort of but not really) that I wouldn’t talk about football during Lent.  Well, while not a formal sacrifice, it’s more of a challenge.  I don’t think that I can avoid talking about the game that I love for the entire stretch of Lent – especially considering that Lent goes through some very important dates on the NFL off-season calendar (i.e. free agency, the Draft, etc.) – BUT I have sort of been trying to keep off the topic.

Fortunately, there are a lot of things in this world that I am interested in and that are going on, so I should be able to express my thoughts on those topics until either a) Lent is over, or b) I can’t handle it anymore and I just go nuts with the posting.  I can’t promise or commit to a certain frequency that I’ll be posting, however, I’ll aim to post something a few times a week; it will largely depend on what I’m doing and, also, what is going on in the world that stirs my interest.  I hope that all has been well where ever you all are and, as always, thanks for reading.

-Ryan.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Salutations Good People,

Week 2 was a rough outing for me (7-9) that could have been disastrous had a few of the close games that I won gone the other way.  But, just like my beloved 49ers who endured an ugly game on Sunday, I’m looking to rebound with my Week 3 picks.  Here we go:

 

Week 3 Picks

Buccs @ Falcons –

As I stated, the Falcons are a different team at home than they are on the road, whereas I don’t know what is wrong with the Buccs but when they are gifted 2 home games to start the season, against back-up QBs, and they are sitting at 0-2, I don’t think that they’ll fare much better in Atlanta than the Saints did in Week 1 — except I don’t think that the Buccs have the offensive potential that the Saints do.  I think that the Falcons should win this game handily.  Falcons over Buccs.

Chargers @ Bills –

The Chargers did everything that they needed to do to beat the Seahawks, but one difference, here, is that they’re not going to have the elements in their favor.  To me, it looked like the heat (along with wearing dark jerseys) wore down the Seahawks.  As the game progressed, they looked miserable hiding under the make-shift canopies with the misting fans.  This will be the first real test for the Bills, though, as I think that the Chargers are better than the Bears and the Dolphins.  Flying across the continent should be interesting, though.  I’m not confident on this one, though.  Bills over Chargers.

Cowboys @ Rams –

These two teams have thrown me so far this season.  The Cowboys did not look impressive against us in Week 1, and then they came out (on the road) and stomped the Titans.  Meanwhile, the Rams open the season getting blown out by the Vikings at home….but then go on to win on the road against the Buccs.  I think that the Rams’ defense (specifically pass rush) is the best thing that they have going for them, right now, and with so much of the Cowboys’ success being hinged on Tony Romo, I think that the Rams will be able to hassle him and cause him to make some mistakes.  Rams over Cowboys.

Redskins @ Eagles –

The Cousins-led Redskins surprised me by roughing up the Jags in Week 2, but I still have the Eagles my hands-down favorite to win this division, and with the game being in Philly, I’m going to roll with the Eagles in this one.  Eagles over Redskins.

Texans @ NY Giants –

The Texans could be the luckiest team in the League right now.  It seems like they have been able to play the worst teams in the NFL to open the first 3 weeks of the season; despite being a team with a lot of question marks.  However, the Giants are probably one of the worst teams in the League this year (or at least to this point), so I have no reason to really suspect them to win this game.  Texans over Giants.

Vikings @ Saints –

Similar to the Falcons, the Saints are a different team when they play at home.  While I swung and missed on them last week at Cleveland, I think that they’ll be able to take out the Vikings in New Orleans.  Saints over Vikings.

Titans @ Bengals –

The Bengals may be playing like one of the better teams in the League right now, whereas the Titans are not.  I don’t know what happened to them against Dallas, at home, but I like the Bengals in this game.  Bengals over Titans.

Ravens @ Browns –

Because I believe that the Bengals have this division wrapped up already, and the Steelers do not look good, I think that these two are fighting for the #2 spot in the division…and maybe a Wild Card spot, too.  I think that I’m going to go with the Ravens right now.  Sure, the Browns made it a close contest against the Steelers in Week 1 and then beat the Saints on a last-second FG in Week 2, but the Ravens, I think, are playing more complete games and have a little bit more talent.  Ravens over Browns.

Packers @ Lions –

The Lions have silently been the most talented roster in the NFC North for at least the past two years, but always managed to screw it up at the end of the season — example: last year they played without Rodgers and Cutler for the majority of the season and STILL managed to not win the division.  However, I don’t know if they’re going to have a similar collapse.  Meanwhile, the Packers got mismatched in Seattle in Week 1 and I chalked it up to the Packers struggling against the NFC West teams — but then the Jets were giving it to them throughout most of the game, before the Packers rallied back and got the win.  I don’t know if the Lions will go down that easy.  They have the offensive weapons and experience that the Jets’ offense lacked, and a rather talented defense (at least up front).  I think I’m going to go with the Lions in this game, and they may be my early favorites to win this division.  I think that they are the most well-rounded team in the division and have the talent to win against the other NFC North teams.  Lions over Packers.

Colts @ Jags –

I have thus far been disappointed by the Jags – they gave Philly a good fight in Week 1 before collapsing at the end, and then they got hammered by the Redskins in a game that I thought that they could have won (based on their performance the week prior).  While I think that the Colts have some concerns, they are a team that fights and doesn’t give up.  I think that the Colts are still the best team in their division, so I’ll gamble with Luck & Co. on the road this week.  Colts over Jags.

Raiders @ Patriots –

In what may be my most confident pick of the week…..  Patriots over Raiders.

49ers @ Cardinals –

I know that a lot of people are freaking out about my beloved 49ers, and how we blew that game against the Bears, and how Kaepernick is proving to not be mature enough or capable to lead this team to the post-season…..despite him having already done it before…..I think that that Bears game was what it looked like: a bad game.  *IF* we don’t commit 16 penalties for 118yds (or whatever) and turn the ball over 4 times, I think we would have dominated the Bears.  The bright side? Penalties and turnovers can be addressed and corrected.  We’re still a talented team.  This will be a tough game and it’s a tough call to make, but I’m hoping/thinking that we’ll clean up our performance and play a much better game of football this Sunday.  I think that our secondary will, again, get torched later in the game (as our pass rush gets fatigued) so I think that Kaepernick will bounce back and have a stronger performance.  49ers over Cardinals.

Broncos @ Seahawks –

If you buy into the whole so-and-so-exposed-the-template-on-how-to-beat-these-guys thing, then the Broncos may be able to execute a similar game plan that the Chargers did last weekend.  However, the Broncos aren’t hosting this game, so they have that going against them.  Also, Manning likes changing the plays at the line of scrimmage, which is tough to do in Seattle due to the crowd noise.  Really, the way to beat the Seahawks in Seattle is to have a game plan and a play and stick with it.  When you start having to call audibles and change the play at the line of scrimmage, that’s when you start getting delay of games, false start penalties, or burning time outs…..or sending the ball through the back of the end zone for a safety.  I would love to see the Broncos win this game but I don’t think that it’s going to happen.  I think that this is a must-win for the Seahawks.  No one seems to be talking about how their Bye Week is next weekend, but if they are 1-2 going into their Bye Week, then I think that they certainly will lose the home-field advantage…and maybe even lose the division title.  I think that the Seahawks are going to start to run out of gas as we creep into late November and December; having your Bye Week in September is rough.  Seahawks over Broncos.

Chiefs @ Dolphins –

The Chiefs have also been a team that has surprised me thus far this season.  Granted, when they jumped out to that ridiculous 9-1 record to start the season last year, they were benefiting from the Cellar Dweller schedule.  But they’ve perplexed me so far this season.  Anyway, I’ll ride with the Dolphins in this game since they’re at home.  Dolphins over Chiefs.

Steelers @ Panthers –

I think that the Steelers are going to be the worst in their division and possibly pretty bad overall.  Meanwhile, the Panthers still have most of their defense intact from last season, so they have that going for them, and Newton appears to be in good health now, after sitting out Week 1.  I have no reason to think that the Panthers can’t win this game, especially at home.  Panthers over Steelers.

Bears @ Jets –

This game is one that I’m not confident on, either.  For one, I don’t think that the Bears’ victory over us is as much of an indication on what their ceiling is, as much as it was about us shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties and then our pass rush becoming exhausted by the 4th quarter. The Bears’ offense and Cutler struggled to get much going through the first 3 quarters of the game, but then our pass rush never seemed to get within 5yds of Cutler in the pocket and he just picked us apart (with stupid penalties, some on 3rd downs that extended their series).  Meanwhile, for the Jets to have a big lead in Lambeau and then watch Rodgers come back and pick them apart at the end, makes me concerned that the Bears can/will do the same.  I think I have to go with the Bears because I see the Jets blowing this game more than I see the Bears not showing up to play.  Bears over Jets.

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That will do it for my picks this week and I’m hoping that I’ve found my groove and that I can get back to picking winners in Week 3.

-Ryan.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Salutations Good People,

Week 1 is always a week where I feel out and experiment — or it is when I go 9-7 on the first week of football…as I did last weekend.  In the interest of brevity and getting on with it, I’ll just jump right into my picks.  Here are my picks for Week 2:

Week 2 Picks

Steelers @ Ravens –

Good to see that we start off Week 2 with one of the match-ups that I can easily talk myself into and out of for hours.  To me, this game comes down to how the Ravens respond to the whole Ray Rice debacle.  I can see them either a) imploding from the distraction element, or b) playing with something to prove — but I have no idea what to expect.  I don’t think that the Steelers are very good; as I don’t think that the Browns are very good, yet they gave the Steelers a good run/scare IN PITTSBURGH in Week 1.  I mean, when people were clamoring for the entire preseason about Johnny Football and the reasons for him starting being largely centered on the greater opinion that Hoyer is not a good NFL QB….but then Hoyer can silence critics (and keep Johnny Football on the bench)… well, the Steelers must have had a hand in him looking that good.  I’ll go with the Ravens and hope that they play with something to prove.  These games always seem to be close and come down to a controversial call/moment, so we’ll see.  Ravens over Steelers.

Dolphins @ Bills –

Another game that I think the outcome will show us more.  The Dolphins took it to the Patriots at home last weekend…but the Patriots may not be very good this year.  And the Bills battled the Bears last weekend, in Chicago, for the OT win…. but the Bears’ D has been vulnerable for the past few seasons now.  So, the Dolphins appear to have had the better performance, but the Bills may have beaten a tougher opponent on the road.  Simply because picking against Buffalo hasn’t backfired on me too often, I’ll take Miami on the road in this game.  Dolphins over Bills.

Jags @ Redskins –

I’m taking the Jags.  The Redskins do not look like a very good team and I’m actually starting to get behind the Jags as being an okay team.  Especially with their division and the AFC being a wide-open conference.  I don’t think that the Jags will blow another lead in the second half like that they did against Philly in Week 1.  Jags over Redskins.

Cowboys @ Titans –

I saw nothing from the Cowboys against us last weekend that makes me think that their defense can get much stops, nor that their offense is firing on all cylinders.  Although, the Niners took over that stadium, so I guess playing on the road this week in Tennessee shouldn’t be too different for the Cowboys.  Titans over Cowboys.

Cardinals @ Giants –

Similarly, I saw nothing (in the recap) from the Giants that puts much of my faith in them.  The Cardinals, though, are hosting the Super Bowl this year — well, their stadium is, rather — and so the Football Gods will end up doing something to keep them from being relevant this year…. but I don’t know what and I don’t know when.  However, I still think that an irrelevant Cardinals team is still better than the Giants team right now.  Cardinals over Giants.

Patriots @ Vikings –

I think that I read/heard somewhere that the Patriots haven’t lost consecutive games in like 10yrs or maybe longer — but they have been getting grilled in the media reactions (questions about their O line, their defense’s ineffectiveness, and Tom Brady, apparently, is struggling to throw farther than 15yrds with success…also, per the Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, the Patriots are 2-6 in their previous 8 road games. Yeesh).  So, a lot of my signs are pointing to the Vikings (especially since they’re not in a dome this year), but then they just lost AP for at least this week.  I think that I’ll still take the Vikings, and I’ll tempt history.  This is a call that I’m not sure about, but the Vikings looked really good against a Rams team that may be bad, so why wouldn’t they be good-to-decent against a Patriots team that may also be bad?  Makes sense.  Vikings over Patriots.

Saints @ Browns –

The Saints in New Orleans are much different than the Saints outside of New Orleans, however, since it is early in the year, I don’t think the elements of Ohio are anything that would screw with them too much.  Going off the belief that the Steelers may not be very good this year, I then must believe that the Saints are WAAAAAY better than the Browns.  So much so that I’d take them on the road, when I’m usually hesitant to take the Saints on the road….except for last week when I took them against Atlanta….and they still lost.  Whoops.  Saints over Browns.

Falcons @ Bengals –

Speaking of those Falcons, they (like the Saints) are also a different team when taken out of their dome, and they too are headed to the state of Ohio this weekend.  However, the Bengals – I think – are probably one of the Top 3 teams in the AFC….whereas the Saints are playing the Browns, who may not be Top 3 in their division, let alone the greater conference.  So, I’m going to take the Bengals in this game.  Bengals over Falcons.

Lions @ Panthers –

This game is a tough one, too, because the Giants look like they just have a bad team right now, so the Lions’ performance is kind of tainted.  Meanwhile, I thought that the Buccs were going to be a sneaky, good team this year…but Derek Anderson (who I actually work with his aunt – random trivia) was able to go into Tampa and come out with the win.  The Panthers get Newton back this weekend and so I think that I’ll stick with them at home (as the Lions have, historically, struggled outside of their dome, as well).  Panthers over Lions.

Rams @ Buccs –

The Rams looked awful in the recap from Week 1.  While the Buccs didn’t execute when they needed to against the Panthers, I do think that the Panthers are a better team than the Rams are, and so having them come to Tampa I think gives the edge to the Buccs this week.  Don’t let me down, Tampa.  Buccs over Rams.

Seahawks @ Chargers –

I really want the Seahawks to lose – mostly because some of my annoying Seahawk fans are predicting the Seahawks to go undefeated this season en route to a 19-0 perfect season, and some other media folks are thinking 15-1 because of how amazing they look.  So, I want them to lose and they might: the Chargers have a high ceiling in the AFC, I reckon, and they are getting the Seahawks on the road – where, prior to last year, they had struggled.  However, until they actual lose, I’ll stick with them for my picking purposes.  Also, because I don’t know much about the Chargers to talk me into picking them.  Seahawks over Chargers.

Texans @ Raiders –

The only thing that could have remotely interested me in this game was the potential of Matt Schaub vs. the Texans’ defense — but that won’t even happen.  This is one game that I don’t care about and that, likely, will not be televised in the bar that I’m going to for the games, because why would it be? Who cares about this game?  That said, I guess I’ll take the Raiders at home – but it’s only because they are the home team and the Texans don’t look very good.  This is by no means a vote of confidence in the Raiders.  Raiders over Texans.

Jets @ Packers –

The Packers do not match-up well with the NFC West – that appears to be true.  However, the Jets are not in the NFC West.  What possibly makes me think that the Jets could have success against Green Bay is because the Packers’ D struggles with mobile QBs and tackling in the open-field: and I believe that Geno Smith is considered a “mobile QB” and the Jets also have two running backs capable of making people miss and/or breaking poor tackling.  However, I don’t think that the Jets’ D is on par with Seattle’s (obviously) and so I think Rodgers will be able to take this game over, if necessary.  I don’t see the Packers dropping their first two games of the season, either, and especially the home-opener.  Packers over Jets.

Chiefs @ Broncos –

Even though I enjoy the Chiefs (and they are the team of my brother and the best man in his wedding), the way that they played in Week 1 does not make me think that they will be able to win this game.  ESPECIALLY on the road and against Peyton Manning when the weather is still nice.  I just hope that Peyton Manning doesn’t run up the score and pad stats, like he tends to do.  Broncos over Chiefs.

Bears @ My Beloved 49ers –

As all of our games for the first half of the season, this game will be tense for me.  Our defense played pretty well — much better than expected — against Dallas’ offense last week.  However, Romo didn’t look right, so he may be hurt or, at the least, is not playing at full-strength.  The Bears are also a little banged up, or so I have read.  I don’t know much about the Bears’ running game these days, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we did a similar bend-but-don’t-break defensive approach where we give up everything underneath, prevent the home run plays, and let the Bears prove they can beat us with the run.  That wouldn’t surprise me.  I’m not too worried about our offense – the way that the Bills were able to have success running makes me think that our O line and Gore/Hyde will be able to have some success as well.  Similarly, with our receivers still healthy, I think that this could be a big game for Vernon Davis — as the Bears LBs tend to be a weak point (in coverage) for their defense, especially, against a player like Davis.  49ers over Bears.

Eagles @ Colts –

From what I have gathered, both of these teams have suspect defenses, and strong offenses.  I can’t count Luck and the Colts out too early in games, as their comeback and near-victory last weekend in Denver was both unexpected and very surprising.  However, the thing that makes me question their success this week, at home, is the dome.  The Eagles are a fast team (both in terms of personnel and pace) and on the turf with ideal conditions, the Eagles could have a big game, offensively; especially, with the Colts’ D being a suspect defense.  This will be my wild pick of the week: I’m going to take the Eagles in this game.  Eagles over Colts.

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That will do it for my picks for this week.  We’ll see how I do and, hopefully, I’m able to improve upon my 9-7 record from Week 1.

 

-Ryan.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Salutations Good People,

After many long months, I am back at my desk and getting ready to make my picks for the week.  Last year, I had the goal of 170 wins during the season…. and I fell juuuuust short (169 wins).   It really was just one bad week that I had last season that not only robbed me of my 170-win goal BUT robbed me of shattering it.  That said, Week 1 is always a little dicey simply because I really only pay attention to a few teams, and so, Week 1, is my first opportunity to sit down and see what the rest of the League is offering.  For those who didn’t follow my picks last year, I’m not a journalist and I am open with my biases; I’ll give my thoughts on the match-up where I feel inspired to, but, ultimately, I’m just picking who I think will win.  Usually, I’m right — however, I don’t gamble so what does my accuracy really matter?  It’s all for good fun.

Here are my picks for Week 1.

Week 1 Picks

Packers @ Seahawks –

We have gotten a fair dosing of the “Fail Mary” story in the past week, leading up to this game, but hopefully it is long past.  This game is a tough one.  “Fail Mary” aside, the Packers played well in Seattle the last time that they were up there; for it being the first game of the season, too, I reckon that everyone is healthy and ready to go (except for BJ Raji, but I hear that he may be more of a big name on the defense than a big factor… I don’t know, though; I don’t follow the Packers that closely).  It’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers (even if up against a great pass-defense) and now that he has a reliable running game, as well, there’s nothing in me that thinks that the Packers do not have a chance at winning this game.  I think that they do have a chance.  That said, the NFC West has had the Packers’ number as of late, especially in exploiting the Packers’ often-porous defense — most notably with my beloved 49ers and Colin Kaepernick: the Packer Killer.  While I’m not comfortable with the pick, I’m going to go with the Seahawks at home, simply because I’d rather pick them and have them lose (and take the loss in my Picks) than I would picking the Packers and having them lose AND taking the loss in my Picks — then I’ve just screwed my night.  At least this way, I’ll have some silver lining at the end of the night…. but I’m not confident on this pick.  Seahawks over Packers.

Saints @ Falcons –

While I think that the Falcons will bounce back this year — sure, they may not have much of a running game and their defense is suspect, but they’ll have Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, and that has to be worth a few wins — I think that the Saints are going to win the division and also get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, on the NFC side of the coin.  With Graham happy, Brees having some weapons (and, I believe, he is recovered from his abdominal strain by now), plus they have reinforced their defense, I think that they will win this game.  I’m not sold on the Falcons whereas I am sold on the Saints.  Saints over Falcons.

Vikings @ Rams –

I think that the beginning of this season is going to be tough sledding for the Rams.  Losing Bradford like they did, when they did, and now having to build the offense around Shaun Hill is a bit of a challenge.  Sure, they have a good running game but Hill is the wild card; I don’t know what to expect from him.  Meanwhile, I see a lot of promise with the Vikings — I don’t think that they’ll make the playoffs this year but I think that they could turn some heads as the season goes along.  I think that, despite the tough predicament the Rams are in, I’ll go with the Rams in this game simply because their defense is one of the best; quietly one of the best.  They have a great pass-rush and if the Vikings are rolling with Cassel as their guy in Week 1, I like the Rams defense against him.  Rams over Vikings.

Browns @ Steelers –

I’m going Steelers.  Not because I have a lot of faith in the Steelers (even though Big Ben and Tomlin are due for a good season) but simply because Cleveland appears to be a circus right now; I have no faith in them.  Which is exactly how I like it. (Side Note: I put a curse on the city of Cleveland some 7yrs ago; so far, so good. End Side Note.)  Steelers over Browns.

Jags @ Eagles –

From the highlights that I saw from the preseason (as well as how they performed down the stretch last year), I think that the Jags may have a chance in the AFC this year.  By “have a chance” I mean that I think that they can put together a respectable season; maybe not playoff-bound but I think that they could be good enough to be a spoiler team for other teams that are on the post-season bubble.  That said, I think that the Eagles will win the NFC East this year (again) and I’ll take their fast-paced offense, at home, over the Jags.  Eagles over Jags.

Raiders @ Jets –

The Raiders appear to be a mess.  While the Jets may not be in a much better situation, I still think that they are better than the Raiders (with Smith or Vick) and, being at home, I am going to go with the Jets in this game.  Jets over Raiders.

Bengals @ Ravens –

This could be a fun game.  The Bengals, I think, have more talent than the Ravens — but the Bengals also tend to not perform well when I want them to, haha.  I have more questions about the Ravens, though, than I do the Bengals.  And so I’m going to ride with the Bengals in this game, with their defense, and that Andy Dalton usually performs well during the regular season….. but I’m not 100% confident on this pick.  Bengals over Ravens.

Bills @ Bears –

I’m going to go with the Bears in this game simply because I haven’t heard anything about the Bills’ defense.  Everything seems to be focused on EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins (who may or may not be nursing a rib injury from the preseason).  Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense could be pretty explosive this season, and I think that could cause problems for the Bills.  I don’t have much faith in the Bears’ defense, either, but — if looking at two teams with unimpressive defenses — I’ll take the offense that is stocked with proven veterans over the youthful offense that is banking a lot on the production from a (potentially not 100% healthy) rookie WR.  Bears over Bills.

Redskins @ Texans –

The only football-related story that I have heard coming out of DC this summer is the questions surrounding if RGIII is going to be healthy to start the season.  I don’t follow them closely and so I haven’t heard much — one way or the other — with any great deal of confidence.  That said, being on the road and going up against a potentially great pass rush (in Watts and Clowney) does make me concerned for RGIII, especially if he does not have his mobility.  Unlike other “mobile” QBs, I don’t think that RGIII can play well without mobility; I think that is a much bigger part of his game than the other “mobile” QBs.   I have a lot of questions about the Texans’ offense (ex. I have no idea who their starting QB is going to be…but it doesn’t seem like they have a solid pick, either…and that’s never good)….but I’d say it’s almost on par with the amount of questions that I have on the Redskins’ defense.  Ergo, I’ll take the superior defense/pass rush and the home team:  Texans over Redskins.

Titans @ Chiefs –

Last season, as you may recall, I was big on the Chiefs.  They had been a terrible team in the recent pass…but consistently had 8 or so Pro Bowl players on their team…..so they had talent but lacked a reliable QB and solid coaching.  Then they got Reid and Alex Smith, addressing both of those areas…. and for the first half of the season they were making me look like a genius, haha. Even though they stumbled as the season progressed and, ultimately, got bit (with a vengeance) by the Injury Bug in that playoff game in Indy, I felt as though they lived up to my expectations.  This year, though, I’m not sure.  No one seems to be talking about them — everyone is occupied with the Broncos (obviously) and there’s a bit of buzz around the Chargers, I hear as well; but I don’t know why the Chiefs can’t be competitive.  If anything, given another year with the offense, Alex Smith and the rest of those pieces should be clicking better; their defense hasn’t changed all that much from last year, either, I don’t believe.   However, for as quiet as the Chiefs have been this off-season and preseason, the Titans have been quieter (in my world).  Ergo, I’ll stick with the home team in this one, simply because the Titans are not on my radar as a team to look out for in the AFC this season.  Chiefs over Titans.

Patriots @ Dolphins –

I don’t follow the Dolphins, really, but I know that last year they had the whole media circus revolving Incognito and Martin, and that probably did have some impact on their performance.  Meanwhile, the Patriots had an incredibly mediocre roster of talent last year….and still won the division….and still made it to the AFC Championship game.  I don’t know if Gronk has been cleared to play (and how many games he will play this season; injury or re-injury seems inevitable) but I imagine that it’s Week 1 and the Patriots are as healthy as they’ll be, so I imagine that they will be able to get this win on the road.  Patriots over Dolphins.

Panthers @ Buccaneers –

The Panthers’ offense has me concerned.  Similar to the Bills, they seem to be relying a lot on young players on offense; really, just two young players on offense.  While I think that Cam Newton is better than EJ Manuel, I believe that Cam is still nursing a rib injury and his ankle may be a concern, plus is O-line is not a strength of the offense. Team that with the departure of Steve Smith and thus a rather unproven receiver corps, I don’t know what to think of their offense.  I reckon that their defense will still be a great defense so they do have that going for them.  Meanwhile, the Buccs have a new head coach, are removed from the QB distraction from last year, and I think could make progress this year within the division.  Because I have a few questions marks surrounding the Panthers’ offense right now, I’m going to stay with the home team and pick the Buccs, and then re-evaluate my opinion of the Panthers after I see them in action.  Buccs over Panthers.

49ers @ Cowboys –

For all of the talk about how my beloved 49ers are in shambles right now (and some media folks even writing them off this season), the word that I keep reading and hearing from players and coaches is that things are just fine; so I’ll trust them on that.  I think that the Cowboys’ offense will be able to move the ball against us — passing defense is not our strength, especially when we’ll be without 2 of our best pass-pressure players (Aldon & Bowman), but who knows? Maybe our secondary will be better this year with the changes that we have made?  Regardless, the Cowboys’ defense is supposed to be one of the worst…..ever…..and so I imagine that our offense will be able to move the ball on them, as well.  In that case, I will take the more all-around-talented team and I hope to see some good performances from our younger players: namely, Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James.  49ers over Cowboys.

Colts @ Broncos –

The Colts tempt me in this game.  However, seeing how they needed the Injury Bug to strike KC in that playoff game last season in order to win, coupled with the fact that the Broncos are in full-on Super-Bowl-or-Bust mode right now (with their off-season spending spree), I don’t think that the Broncos are going to come out of the gates with a loss….at home.  My concerns with the Broncos’ veteran additions (and their ability to hold up for the whole season) is irrelevant in Week 1, so I’ll be taking the Broncos at home.  Broncos over Colts.

Giants @ Lions –

The Lions are one of the more talented teams in the League, in my opinion, and perhaps their late-season collapses were more the result of their coaching than of the players on the field? We’ll find out this year, as Jim Caldwell is the new head coach.  I wasn’t impressed with Caldwell when he was at the helm of the Colts but he took that talented team to the Super Bowl….where he was promptly out-coached and the Colts were out-played by the Saints.  That said, I don’t think that the Lions are Super Bowl-bound, but I think that they’ll make the post-season, sure.  Meanwhile, I don’t think that the Giants will do much this year and so I’ll stick with the more talented team, especially while at home in the season-opener.  Lions over Giants.

Chargers @ Cardinals –

I don’t know if I’ve bought into the hype of the Chargers or just have too many questions to back the Cardinals in this game, but in what little action I saw from the Chargers’ starters in their preseason game against us, they seem to be in a good place right now.  Rivers seems happy in the new system, he was making good decisions, high-percentage passes, and such an approach could be successful against the Cards since they lost Dockett and another defensive star on the line.  Patrick Peterson, I believe, is no longer handling punt return duties and we’ll see how the Honey Badger rebounds this season.  Ultimately, though, my questions with the Cards are with Carson Palmer: he hasn’t been the same since his knee got blown out in that playoff game as a Bengal and now, I believe, he is in his upper 30s and I expect his production to fall off this season — but will that drop off start to happen in Week 1? That is the question.   I haven’t made many bold picks this week so I’ll roll with the Chargers in this game and see what happens.  Chargers over Cardinals.

####

We’ll see how Week 1 goes and I’ll recap it on Tuesday evening.

-Ryan.

NFL 2014 Predictions: The Seahawks Will Not Repeat (I Don’t Think So, At Least)

One of my friends on the Facebook was posting about his belief that the Seahawks would take a step back this year, meanwhile, the media is all over the Seahawks as being the best-looking team coming out of preseason.  Did they look impressive?  Sure, much like the University of Oregon, they do take pride in running up the score on either bad teams or in irrelevant games (like preseason); but that is aside from my point.

I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat as champions, this year, not because I don’t like them, or that I don’t respect them, or that I don’t think that they are a good team; none of those reasons.  I don’t think that they will repeat simply because of their schedule and, most importantly, their Bye Week.

Last year, the Seahawks got their rest for a post-season push in Week 12, and that always helps.  This year, though? They will be getting their rest in the month of September (Wk 4).  This means that they will have 3 straight months of football, from their Bye Week to the end of the regular season and, potentially, another month of post-season football in order to get in the position to repeat as champions.  That, though, is a very tall order.

Here is how I break down their schedule:

Pre-Bye Week, they have 3 Super Bowl contenders, in a lot of peoples’ minds: Packers, @ Chargers, then hosting the Broncos.  I don’t know if any of those games are slam-dunk victories for the Seahawks.  For as much as people are quick to talk about their home-field advantage, it is not as dominant as people believe it to be.  Yes, in the past 3 years they have only lost there once (last season vs. the Cardinals), but they have had some really close calls.  While I don’t think that it is likely that they lose back-to-back home games to start off the season, I would not be surprised if they lost one of them.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if they went into their bye week 3-0, either.  Best case scenario is 3-0, but if they go into their Bye Week 1-2 or 0-3, it could potentially sink their season.  Why? It’s a long season.

Coming out of their Bye Week, I think that they will have good success against the Redskins (in DC) and the Cowboys, at home.  But then they go on the road against the Rams and then to Carolina to play the Panthers; and while both of those teams may be in disarray on the offensive side of the ball, both teams possess big, physical defenses.  Last year, the Panthers held the Seahawks to under 2 TDs in Carolina (in an eventual loss), while the Rams held the Seahawks to negative yardage in the first quarter before eventually losing 14-9 — after failing on a 4th and Goal that would have won the game.  Can they win these games?  Possibly/probably, simply because their defense will be good enough to keep it close and, while the offense may get battered, I still think that they have enough to win the games.

They then come home for the Raiders and the Giants, which are games that I don’t think that they will struggle with.  And that is the last real ray of sunshine for the Seahawks in the regular season, in my opinion.

They then go on the road to Kansas City, and while I think that the Chiefs will take a step back this year, I also think that the Seahawks struggle on the road. Especially when going to a stadium that is equally loud, as Arrowhead can get.  The Seahawks are good enough to win this game but I think that it can wear on them.

They then return home to host the Cardinals (who beat them in Seattle in their last meeting) and while I’m not sold on the Cards’ offensive weapons, I think that their defense can give the Seahawks some problems.  They then play us 4 nights later on Thanksgiving night, where we will have Aldon Smith back (fresh), likely to have Bowman back healthy, and, even if McDonald is convicted on the domestic violence charge (court appearance is later this month), he will also likely be back from the 6-game suspension the League protocol would dictate.  Not to mention that we will have been just coming off of our Bye Week four weeks prior.

The Seahawks next travel to Philadelphia to play the fastest-paced team in the NFL.  Which, for a team that hasn’t had a week off in over 2 months, is probably going to be an added challenge.  I imagine that also playing outside in the potential cold/snow of Philadelphia could also be an added wrinkle that the Seahawks are not used to having to deal with.

From there, they fly back across the continent to host us (whereas we will have had a “road” game in Oakland), and we gave them a tough game the last time that we played in Seattle, and so I have no reason to think that we won’t bring them a challenge once again.

Before going on the road to play Arizona and their strong defense, and then finishing the regular season at home against the Rams’ strong defense.  That is 5 of their last 6 games against the NFC West, with that one other game being a cross-continental game against a very fast-paced offense.  It’ll be tough sledding, I reckon.

I think that the Seahawks are good enough to win a lot of these potentially close games — I think that they go 12-4 this season — BUT I don’t think that they get home-field advantage this year (I think that the post-season will go through New Orleans).  That said, while I think that they have enough to make it into the post-season, I don’t think that they will have enough left in the tank to win it all this year.  And that is why I don’t think that the Seahawks will repeat this year.

-Ryan.

My Return – Pt III – 49ers in 2014

In this third-part of the My Return series, I’ll focus on something that truly matters: the 49ers 2014 campaign, haha.  A lot of things have happened since I last wrote about the Niners and so I’ll try to touch on the big ones here and then give my thoughts, prediction, and also what I plan to do in order to put this team in the best possible position to win.

PRESEASON

A lot of fuss was made by the media, bloggers, and folks in the comment sections of articles about how bad we looked in the preseason, which is warranted….but not the full story.  Of course we looked bad — we never had our full offense together, or full defense together, at the same time.  And why should we have? That’s not what the preseason is about.  The preseason isn’t about winning games or scoring points, it’s about NOT SUSTAINING INJURIES and giving your back-ups (and guys fighting to make a team) the opportunity to show what they can do.  So, in that regard, I think that way more fuss and panic was put into our preseason than is warranted.  After all, when has a Jim Harbaugh preseason looked impressive?  The last couple of years we have rolled out a very bland, vanilla presentation in the preseason….but then we have charged into the NFC Championship Game.  I’m not worried.

Furthermore, the buzz from the players is not one of concern.  Kaepernick seems confident that they’re heading in the right direction, practicing well, and will be ready to roll come next weekend in Dallas; Frankie echoes a lot of that same sentiment; the coaching staff seem to be pleased with development and how things are going, so I have no reason to be concerned.  If we had Twitter or players coming out and complaining about things or voicing frustration, then maybe I would be concerned.  But everyone seems happy to be there, working hard, getting along, and so I trust that it’s just being treated like a normal preseason in the Harbaugh Era.

Certainly, though, if the offense doesn’t click during the regular season, we will be in trouble.  I don’t know if our defense will be able to win us games this year on their own.  Especially in the first 9 games of the season, with some recent developments regarding Aldon Smith.

ALDON SMITH

Losing Aldon Smith for the first 9 games of the season is a bit of a blow, but not one that necessarily cripples us (like some media folks are saying).  I think that it definitely costs us 2 games, for sure (@ Denver, @ New Orleans), and possibly a third (Chicago) – simply because those three games are against pass-heavy offenses and solid QBs with projected big stat years coming (Manning, Brees, and Cutler, respectively)…oh, and two of them are on the road.  Our secondary isn’t our defensive strength — and that’s no mystery — and so we really do need a good pass rush in those games if battling against pass-heavy offenses and good QBs.  If someone is open, those QBs will find them when given time in the pocket.  Not having Aldon Smith definitely weakens us in the pass-rush department, unless we get MAJOR production from Skuta, Wilhoite, Lemonier, etc.

The only other high-profile offense that we play in Smith’s absence, though, is the Cowboys to open the season.  And while the Cowboys offense has been secretly very good recently, their defense is projected to be historically bad — so our offense should be able to bail us out in that game. Should be.

Side Note:  I neglected to further criticize Goodell’s timing on the announcement of the suspension in Part II and so I’ll do it now.  I don’t know why he waited so long on this decision.  Aldon’s latest incident happened months ago, he met with Aldon 3 weeks ago, and waited until a week before the season starts to let us know that he’ll be suspended for the first 9 games?  I didn’t appreciate that.  Sure, Baalke and Harbaugh have said that they planned for this (and I do believe that they did) but I don’t appreciate the delay as he’s a key player and whether he is out for 2 games, 4 games, 9 games, or the full-season, I don’t see the need to sit on making a decision for 3 weeks for offenses that are months old and, the legal system piece, has already been resolved.  If the courts hadn’t made a verdict yet, then I can see the justification for waiting before ruling on the League level.  But we’ve known his sentence (on the legal end of things) for awhile now, so there was no point in waiting until this past week to make your decision.  Or at least not in my book.  End Side Note.

One of my dear friends had attempted to downplay the suspension by saying that Aldon isn’t the important “Smith” on our defense — referring to Justin Smith — and citing how Aldon’s productivity plummeted two years ago when Justin went down with the bicep injury against the Pats.

Aldon definitely benefits from Justin’s presence, for sure — once Justin went out, then O-lines could double up on Aldon; that makes perfect sense. However, at this stage of each player’s respective career, I don’t know if I’d say that Justin is more important. (PLUS they work really well together in tandem, which also helps both of them.)

We have the talent and youth on the D-line that, I believe, we could now cover if Justin went down with injury (though, obviously, for his talent and experience, I’d prefer that not to happen). Whereas we are going to be attempting to cover Aldon’s absence with 2-3 guys on rotation. Losing either of them affects our pass rush but I think, at this point, Aldon’s absence will be more noticeable. Especially when he comes back in November with something to prove.

FORECAST FOR THE SEASON

*IF* we can stay afloat while Aldon is suspended (above .500), I think that we will be in a very good position to make a late-season push.  Getting him and Bowman back, fresh and healthy, in November will bring an added energy and talent to our defensive front, PLUS then our rotation and depth becomes better due to the fact that they would have had 9 games of added experience added to their belt.

As it stands right now, I think that we have a shot at replicating last year’s 11-5 campaign.  We’re still a very good team (even without Aldon and Bowman for most of the year).

Cowboys (Wk 1) have an explosive offense, but I think that our offense is good enough to exploit their porous defense.  The Bears (Wk 2) could be tough due to their passing game against our secondary, but 1) we have them at home and 2) their defense is not a lock-down defense – perhaps Kaepernick can replicate his performance against them a year and a half ago.  The Cardinals (Wk 3) are a wild card – I’m not sure what to expect from them this season.  Not having our pass rush at full strength does give Palmer more time to throw (and he does have some good receiving targets) but he’s also 34yrs old and there seems to be buzz that he won’t finish the season as their starting QB – so maybe we can edge them on the road?

The Eagles (Wk 4) is another potent offense that we’ll be up against but we have them at home and I think that our offense can move the ball against their defense.  Anytime where I think that both offenses can move the ball and score points, I will tend to side with the better defense – and I think that would be us, in this match up.  Hosting the Chiefs (Wk 5) is a game that could also be pretty interesting: Alex Smith doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and so he may find success against us moving the ball, but we should still be very good at run defense, and so I like us in this game, as well; especially since a lot of people tend to hold the opinion that the Chiefs are prime for a regression this year (but we’ll see).

Going on the road to play the Rams (Wk 6) is anyone’s guess.  With Bradford out for the season, and Shaun Hill at the helm, I don’t know if we know what that offense is going to look like.  Their defense is great, quietly underrated, in my opinion, and so the questions are solely surrounding their offense.  I don’t know if Shaun Hill will have success against us, and they may have to rely more on running the ball — where our defensive strength resides.

The Broncos (Wk 7) is a game that I don’t think that we can win, especially on the road.  The only way that we can beat the Broncos on the road is through pressuring Manning (who doesn’t perform well after getting hit a few times), and knocking him out of his game and comfort zone.  I don’t know if we can do that without Aldon and Bowman. If we can’t generate pressure on Manning and a pass rush, then he’ll be able to pick our secondary apart, I’m sure.  You can’t give top-shelf QBs all day in the pocket to throw the ball; they’ll find someone open. So, unless our replacements come in hot and create MAJOR production, I don’t think that we will win this game.

Then we have the Bye Week, and if we can be 5-2 (or 4-3) heading into the Bye Week, then I think that we’ll be in good shape; or, at least, as good a shape as I could ask for.

We then have the Rams (Wk 9) at home, and, again, the Shaun Hill wrinkle is one that I’m not sure about, but I think that is a winnable game, or at least one where we have a good chance at winning, before going to play the Saints (Wk 10) in New Orleans.  For the same reasons that I don’t think that we can beat the Broncos’ offense without our pass-rush at full-strength, I also don’t think that we can beat the Saints in New Orleans without our pass-rush.

Once out of that clearing, though, we get a fully-rested and motivated Aldon Smith back and possibly even Bowman (his rehabilitation has been said to be coming along nicely) and the rest of our season consists of a lot of winnable games, in my opinion, including (essentially) 5 of the final 7 games at home.

Starting off the final 7 games of the season, we’ll be on the road against the Giants (Wk 11).  I don’t think that Eli will have the year that he had last year but, at the same time, I think that there are a lot of questions with the Giants this year, like the rest of the NFC East.  Then we have the Redskins at home (Wk 12), and, again, a lot of questions right now with them, before hosting the Seahawks (Wk 13) on Thanksgiving.  The Seahawks game should be a good, tough game, as advertised, but it being a home game for us (following a home game), and a short week, travel week for them, PLUS, since their Bye Week is really early this season, we could be catching them at a time that they are getting fatigued while we are hitting our stride.

Then we go “on the road” to play Oakland (Wk 14) and I think that we can beat them, before heading up to Seattle (Wk 15) where, despite all of the 12th Man nonsense, we played them incredibly tough in the championship game last year, and so I think that we can win that game.  I don’t know if we will, but it’s not a slam-dunk victory for the Seahawks anymore, in my opinion.

Then we come home for the Chargers (Wk 16) – which could be a tough game, depending on how their season is going; there’s a lot of buzz that I’m hearing and reading around the Chargers making a push this season, and Rivers looking good in the preseason; so this could be a tough game for us.  We then close out the season, like last year, with the Cardinals (Wk 17) but this year, we are hosting the season finale — which is good because I think that this game could be very important.

I don’t think that we have any shot at winning home-field advantage this season (I think that the Saints will clinch home-field), and without Aldon and Bowman for most of the season, I don’t know if we will have enough wins to clinch the division, either (unless the Seahawks unexpectedly collapse somehow), so we are playing and battling for one of two Wild Card spots.  With how competitive the NFC is, I don’t think 10-wins gets you in – just like how the Cardinals missed the playoffs last year at 10-6.   I think that the Saints win the South and get home-field; the Packers win the North and get the #2 seed; then the Seahawks win the West and the #3 seed; and the Eagles win the East and get the #4 seed — leaving the 2 Wild Card spots for: us, the Falcons (who I think will bounce back this year), the Bears, the Lions (who may not have the tendency to implode in December as they did under Schwartz), the Buccs, maybe the Cardinals/Rams, and, who knows?, maybe the Vikings make a splash this season?  The Panthers, I think, will regress this year, but that’s another team to look out for.

Much like last year, though, I don’t think that we need to be the top-seed or a division champ in order to win in the post-season: we just need to get into the playoffs and I think that we’ll be okay.  When we are at full-strength (as I reckon we would be in December and January) we are not only tough to beat, BUT I think that we can win anywhere.

So, that would be my prediction right now:  11-5 and a Wild Card team.  Hopefully I am correct.  #GoNiners

WHAT I WILL DO

I will do my part to help the team out.  Two years ago, I had a very specific pregame ritual that, I believe, helped get us to the Super Bowl.  However, I got TRASHED before the Super Bowl at the Niners-Fan Only Super Bowl party that I attended, and THAT is where I went wrong.  It remains the only football game that I’ve ever drank during, and it is no coincidence (in my mind) that after I stopped drinking and started sobering up (when we were down big in the 3rd quarter), that we started playing better.  Had I remained sober that game, we probably cruise to a victory.  It’s a guilt that I must carry on my shoulders forever, now.

Last year, I wasn’t as religious with the pregame ritual and we came just short of going to the Super Bowl again — where I am confident that we would have easily won it, just as the Seahawks did.

So, this year, I am going back to my full-tradition of two years ago and, hopefully, this return to my superstitious tradition will please the Football Gods above and bring us their good fortune and favor.

Oh, and I will stand by my prior-made promise that if we win the Super Bowl this year, I will convert my wardrobe — where applicable — to being fully Dockers products.  I say “where applicable” because their website doesn’t show the full-breadth of their ability (which is really weird to me) and so I am limited to what I find at stores.  Pants, shoes, belts, those items are always available; but they also make dress shirts that I haven’t been able to find online BUT do occasionally find at Ross Dress for Less (which is bizarre).  I also once saw a Dockers driving cap at Ross, which is another item that I had never seen of theirs.  So, if we win it all this year, I’m going shopping.  Dockers: The Official Clothier of Ryan Henley.

Thanks for reading,

-Ryan.

My Return – Pt II – Aldon Smith & Strange NFL Justice

When I got a series of text messages yesterday at work, I knew something was going on.  Then I read that it was my brother and dear Seahawk friend, Andy, breaking the news to me of Aldon Smith’s 9-game suspension.  I wasn’t surprised.  Why should I be?

After Josh Gordon got a full-season suspension for smoking too much weed, and then Matt Prater got a 4-game suspension for, reportedly, having some beers at home while on vacation (per his attorney) — which violated his probation stemming from a DUI three years ago — I figured that Aldon’s suspension would be AT LEAST 8 games, but maybe even a full-season, as well.  After all, the man did wrap his truck around a tree…with a BAC twice the legal limit….at 7am….on a Wednesday morning…. I consider 9 games a pretty lenient ruling (unless Goodell factored in the 5-games he voluntarily missed last year — 14-games total? Yeah, I could see that).  I’ll get to my thoughts in Pt III about how his absence will play a role in our 2014 campaign BUT shift my focus to the strange brand of justice that the NFL is rolling out nowadays.

Not to say that because Aldon Smith didn’t hurt anyone (including himself…miraculously) that his DUI shouldn’t be treated as less severe of an incident, but when you consider that no one got hurt in his incident; and then you consider that Josh Gordon getting high (presumably on his couch watching TV?) didn’t hurt anyone; and Prater having some beers at his home while on vacation also didn’t hurt anyone….yet Ray Rice can knock his fiancee UNCONSCIOUS in an elevator and only get a 2-game suspension…..that is strange, right? RIGHT?? Oh, furthermore, Ray Rice’s was also the only incident that was documented on camera, too. It’s not even a he-said-she-said-type of thing, either; we all saw him drag her out of the elevator, presumably unconscious — or maybe doing that sort of tantrum that kids do where they go limp and force you to drag them around.  Although, the KO is probably more likely.

Sure, I read that his record will get cleared if he behaves himself for the next few years while on probation, and so you could argue that punishing him for something that may not exist on his record could get tricky, BUT these latest rash of suspensions don’t make any sense to me. Even if there is no standing rule against knocking your fiancee out cold (which kind of surprises me that there wasn’t…), couldn’t that fall under the “personal conduct” policy?  I feel as though anytime that you initiate a physical altercation — with anyone — and you knock them out cold, that you probably should get suspended for at least 4 games.  I mean, if the rule book says that Prater warranted a 4-game suspension (even though they were initially trying for a SEASON-LONG suspension….seriously….) for consuming alcohol at home, shouldn’t they be able to say: “Yeah, let’s have the domestic violence incident be at least 4 games, too.”

It just doesn’t make any sense to me.

I’m not a big fan of Goodell, though.  I soured on the guy after I found out that he makes $20M a year.  $20 MILLION A YEAR.  To do what? Talk about how he’d like to see the NFL expand to Europe (where it had been tried and failed all within my lifetime)?  Or (poorly) engage in cover-ups and PR mishaps?  Announce the first round picks at the NFL Draft, giving bear hugs to huge guys, and posing for photos?  I could totally do that job. NAY, I could totally do that job better.

I don’t get it but a lot of my life, in hindsight, is made up of moments and things that I don’t get, so I’ll focus on elements that I can control, which is a great segue to Part III and how I will be preparing for the 2014 campaign and what my thoughts are as we inch ever-so-closer to kickoff.

My Return – Pt I – Life Got In The Way

Salutations Good People,

It has been a long while since I have appeared on WordPress (even they were sending emails that they missed me) but, rest assured, that I am alive and well, and now focusing back on the upcoming NFL season as I am on a quest to get 175 wins this season in my Pick ‘Em Predictions.  For those playing at home, I fell just shy of my 170-win goal last season…registering 169 wins!!  I had one really bad week last season, though, and so I think that 175 is definitely an achievable goal.

Before going right into football-mode, though, I’ll talk a bit about what I have been up to the last couple of months.

THE ROAD WARRIOR

July was crazy. Fun, expensive, but definitely a crazy month, for me.  Actually, June, July, and August were pretty wild months for me.  A quick recap: I didn’t work a full week (5-consecutive days) from the Friday before Memorial Day weekend until the 3rd week of July, which is a personal record; and, in that time frame, I logged a trip to Denver for the Godtwins’ Baptism; I went to the Oregon Coast for the 4th of July (always a good decision); I also spent a weekend in San Francisco for Joe Montana’s all-star flag football game/farewell to the ‘Stick (AND I rode the BART for the first time, even going underneath the Bay, which was a little unsettling, personally); and then spent another weekend at Lake Merwin (probably about a half-hour/45min south of Mt. St. Helens, in Washington State).  For someone who doesn’t travel all that often, I was incredibly active this summer.

Oh, and in early August I also went camping near Mt. Hood (here in Oregon) which was the first time that I have EVER done real camping — i.e. no electricity, no cell service, no human-controlled water, no permanent man-made structures, in the middle of the woods, etc. — and so that was pretty interesting.  It was a lot of fun but I’d like to do it again on a weekend that I would be out there for more than just one night and that I wouldn’t be exhausted by the time I got out there (I had a Sloshball game that Friday evening after work, so I drove out afterwards and arrived at the site shortly before 11pm…then setting up camp, in the dark and cold, kind of sucked. I was exhausted, haha).

The things that I do for girls, though.  Oh, that was also another notable reason as to my absence the past couple of months.

ROMANTIC PURSUIT

My idea and thus approach to courtship is what makes me a great boyfriend (when it works) and probably a terrible GM.  To roll with the GM/sport analogy, I go all-in on the woman that I am pursuing; much like a GM would go all-in on the highly coveted free agent: when it works? It is brilliant.  When it doesn’t, though? Well, that’s when I’ve sort of screwed my roster for the next couple of years.  It happens.

Why go all-in? To me, courtship — in my mind — is my presentation of what being with me would be like, therefore, unless I’m going to be dating multiple women simultaneously throughout the long-term relationship, then dating multiple women simultaneously to start off with is not a fair representation.  I wouldn’t be giving her the respect and attention that she would warrant, as — by virtue of having to spread my affections and attention around — all of the multiple women would have a collective piece of my attention at any given time.  Ergo, when I meet a woman that I’m attracted to and interested in, I go all-in.  It is exhausting BUT I think that it’s the only way that I really give it a chance.  If I’m not willing to give her my all, then what am I really wanting from her? That’s how I see it.

Anyway, so I had met this girl in mid-May and we had started hanging out throughout the end of May and June, but over 4th of July weekend is when we started seeing each other, or so I thought.  So, I went all-in with her: sending her sweet text messages (often in haiku – my preferred text-based poetic expression); taking her out to dinner and movies; making her a thoughtful and elaborate birthday card; as well as a hype card for a big race that she was running in late July (she was in a bad mood the night before, so I put together a hype card and dropped it off in the wee hours of the morning so that she would, hopefully, be in higher spirits for her race); and things were going well.

Now, I don’t know if she’ll ever read this and so I can’t give full details on where things probably went wrong — I don’t want to cause trouble — but I began noticing in early August that I was way more interested in her than she was in me…..some times.  Usually, especially around her friends, she was very distant towards me to the point where it was like we were barely friends, let alone sorta-kinda dating (which is always a red flag, in case you were curious, haha).  And as we headed into August, I could see it starting to unravel — which is, in a lot of ways, like watching the footage of the Hindenburg crashing down: kind of slow and uneventful, but you know something isn’t right, and then, BOOM!, all of a sudden there’s fire and mayhem everywhere, some old-timey voice drops the “Oh the humanity” line a couple of times……but ultimately it looks worse than it actually is.

I drove up to see her (mostly) at the camping trip — it was for the birthday of one of her friends — and she was the last one of the group to say hello to me (after some prodding from the rest of the group)….so that wasn’t a good start to my weekend, haha…. and then when I presented her with the flowers that I had brought up for her (she mentioned that receiving flowers was something that every girl loved), I didn’t get quite the reaction that I was hoping for:  “Why did you bring flowers?”  The weekend never really rebounded from that start — while manually pumping up the air mattress that her and I were supposed to sleep on, I was accused of being anti-social towards the rest of the group, but, the next morning, when arranging a hike with the folks there, I was too friendly with them.  When “arguments” start to happen over being too friendly to the other person’s friends, that’s also a pretty large, red flag, too, haha.

Anyway, that following weekend I asked her out and she said that she was just going to do her own thing instead (not a good sign) and, finally, after some 4 days of not replying to my attempts at communication, she got around to letting me know that she wasn’t attracted to me and just wanted to be friends.  Which is why I would be a terrible GM.  I invested dozens upon dozens of man-hours and hundreds of dollars in courting her and came up empty handed when signing day arrived.

That’s how it goes sometimes, though.  There’s no point in getting mad, though, as you can’t help it if you’re not what someone is into; and, really, I had the warnings early on and ignored them (or, rather, figured that it would be different) and so I’m really the only one that I can be mad at….if I was going to get mad at about it.  But, I’m not.  The only thing that women tend to struggle with is that when you tell the guy that you’re not into them, then the dynamics of the relationship immediately change — as is the case with her.  I’m not going to keep texting her haiku to make her smile; taking her out to dinner or other date-like things; or do sweet, romantic gestures to make her happy — once you put us in the Friendzone, then you also go into the Friendzone, too, and that special treatment doesn’t follow anymore.

All of that said, the last part of August really picked up for me and I have returned to you all to start this season off right again.  Speaking of things that went right for me in late August….

ONWARD AND UP-WARD

August also brought some good times in the form of my return to the U (of P) — which, for those playing at home, is my alma mater: the University of Portland.  After spending the past 8 years at my old job, I had been trying to get back to the U for the past 2-3 years, now, and the opportunity finally presented itself.  So, I just recently had an experience that I’ve only experienced 5 times in my entire life (and the first time since Sept 2006): I had my first day in a new job.

It has been great, though.  Keeping with the football theme, I describe it best as being a Free Agent who left my old team for a greater role in a team that I grew up being a big fan of: it hasn’t been hard, challenging — sure — but no more so than a veteran player would have learning a new playbook, system, etc.  It’s been a great move for me and I’m quite happy about it.  I’m not typically one to look too far ahead into the future — cue Jim Mora’s iconic Playoffs?? PLAYOFFS? Ya kidding me? Playoffs? moment — but one of the major points of emphasis in my desire to return back to the U was for the opportunity to get back to school, getting my MA and, who knows?, maybe another BA or higher-level degree (if available).  The way that I see it is that as long as I’m happy and challenged, I have no incentive to leave.  I get very comfortable surprisingly easily, haha.

That said, I could reasonably see myself retiring from UP in like 50yrs.  The thing that is great about the environment and the culture — which I’m already benefiting from — is that when you’re around kids aged 18-22 all of the time, it is a very energizing atmosphere.  It is exciting; stirring the memories of my time walking those same halls, experiencing the same new experiences that these kids are experiencing — it’s great, fun, and recharging, for me.  One of my personal concerns about leaving my old job was not having the slack that is typically granted to someone who has lasted nearly-8 years (in a world where the shelf life of staff is around 2.5yrs), and the struggle it was to get motivated and to the office by 9am.  Starting my day at 8:30am was something that I was certain I would struggle with but it has been a surprisingly VERY easy transition for me to make.  The only explanations that I have are that a) I’m happier about what I am doing and where I am going now, and b) the aforementioned energizing environment that comes from being around college-age kids all day.  (It also helps being a mere 3mi from work now and having zero traffic to contend with; driving to/from work had been the cause of, roughly, 82% of all the stress in my life– very pleased to no longer have it.)

Regardless, it has been a great move for me and a great new chapter in my story.  Very excited to see what the future holds in this opportunity, and I’ll continue to do what I do and win a few championships in the process — metaphorically speaking.

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With a recap of what has kept me away from writing the past few months now finished, I will continue on with the subsequent parts of My Return that focus on football and the upcoming season.

Favorite Holiday Update: 4th of July on the Rise

Ohhhh the 4th of July.  Historically, it has always been one of my favorite holidays; a summer fixture of my Core Four Holidays (along with the Super Bowl, Halloween, and New Year’s Eve).  But, now, it is growing in significance.  I don’t know if it has surpassed the Super Bowl for the honor of my overall favorite holiday, but it is definitely now a conversation that can be had, and had legitimately.

As the years have worn on, a good portion of my friends are either married, engaged, and/or have kids, now, and have been making homes — not renting houses… making homes.  Ergo, as one could/should expect, their holiday foci has shifted towards more of the family-oriented holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and past shenanigan-laced holidays (like 4th of July and Halloween) are now much more mild and kid-focused.

With the gradual decline of interested parties, the energy, passion, and festivity of Halloween and New Year’s Eve have all but evaporated. They’re not as fun anymore.

Four years ago, I was spending WEEKS building my Halloween costume, engineering it to be comfortable, ventilated, and still allowing me to drink because I was going to SEVERAL parties over the course of the weekend.  It was something that I started thinking about in August and started preparing for in September.  This past Halloween, though?  There was only one costume party that my friends were having, and I made my costume the night of the party.  Most of my friends were shifting their focus towards the trick-or-treaters that would be visiting their home.

Four years ago, New Year’s Eve was a night of celebration in a crowded house party with dear friends, acquaintances, and new people I had never seen before, with great food and drink, and just a great night to be around people — this year? It was a party of 4, myself included.  We drank cheap beer, played beer pong, and then watched TV until about 2am when I decided that I was sober and headed home.

Things have changed.  But, hey, that is life; it was bound to happen eventually.  Although, I suppose I figured that my life would change inline with my friends’, but that appears to have been where I miscalculated, haha.  In a few years, I’ll be able to borrow the Godtwins for Halloween, and that will be fun: getting to excite them with the prospect of making ridiculous and fun costumes, then taking them out trick-or-treating; I do look forward to that — but that is still years away.

That said, despite all of the changes I’ve seen in my late 20s, the 4th of July and the Super Bowl are still there for me; they are still resistant to the changes in my life that I see all around me.

4th of July: the summer holiday that still has the same celebratory elements of sunshine, outdoor activities/games, fun summer cocktails, and various-grade explosives.  Not to say that the whole purpose of the holiday is to drink and blow stuff up — that would be over-simplifying it to a disgusting level — rather, it is celebrating our history, our tradition, and the sacrifices made by the near-countless men, women, and children who have made this country what it is today.  (Getting on my soap box momentarily) I am honored and proud to live in a country where the only time that I really hear explosions or fear for my well-being are when the explosions are orchestrated by those that I know, and done in a celebratory fashion.  I never take these United States of America for granted and I love these United States so much that I have never had a desire to leave their boundaries. (Exits soap box)

That said, my 4th of July holidays tend to be spent on the Oregon Coast where the daytime is filled with games of beach volleyball, or kickball, or going on hikes; with the evenings being devoted to grilling, cocktails, and various-grade explosives with some of the best people in my life.  What more could you ask for from a holiday weekend??

World Cup Thoughts – Pt II

The other day, in Pt I, I gave an overview of my thoughts on the World Cup, and so now I’ll go a little bit deeper and discuss some of the World Cup thoughts that I have had this weekend as I did watch one of the games.

Yesterday, I was invited out to watch the Colombia-Uruguay game by a cute girl, and so, naturally, I accepted the invite  — yeah, I’m one of those guys — and it left me with a lot of questions about soccer.

Probably the biggest obstacle that I have, in terms of enjoying soccer, is not understanding why they don’t have the same rules as hockey — whose rules make a lot of sense, to me.  For example: the fixed offside line — soccer doesn’t have that, but I think that they should.  Also, pulling the goalie for an extra attacker — that’s something that I was saying Uruguay should have done until I was told by the soccer people there that it is against the rules. Then what is the point of playing the overage time??

Pulling The Goalie.

Essentially, if you’re down 2-0 (like Uruguay was), there’s no point — in my mind — to keep playing once regulation has expired because you’re not going to get any good scoring opportunities anyways and, I reckon, 99.99% of all 2-0 deficits remain 2-0 by the time overage is reached.  So what’s the point?  At least in hockey, you can pull the goalie for an extra attacker and play 6-on-5 in a desperate attempt creating a mismatch/scoring opportunity to get back in the game…. and, when it happens… it…is… AMAZING.  So intense.  Soccer doesn’t do that.  The ball just gets advanced and then rejected to the opposite side of the field on a loop until the game is stopped.  What’s the point? Where is the tension?

Even the Uruguay fans didn’t look frozen in suspense.  They knew that there was no way they were going to win.  It was like once they went down 2-0, their mood switched from being there for the soccer game to, instead, just being in Brazil on vacation:  just hanging out, smiling for the cameras, and I didn’t like that.  Sports are supposed to be intense and passionate.  For being a game that your country really cares about, they didn’t seem very invested in the outcome, emotionally.  You shouldn’t be relaxed when your team is facing elimination; you just shouldn’t.

The folks that I was watching the game with looked at me like the “pulling of the goalie” was an absurd thought, but why?  From what I’ve seen, most shots on goal tend to sail high or wide anyways (as most shots that I’ve seen have appeared rushed or one of those turn-and-fire attempts), it’s not like the goalie is involved in those instances — it’s difficult to control a ball with your foot, especially when rolling over a surface like grass that provides friction to slow it down.  As long as your team doesn’t completely screw up, with the extra attacker, you should be able to prevent any good shots on goal anyways. BUT, for argument sake, let’s say that they do score again — so what? You’re already likely going to be eliminated, so what’s the difference in losing 3-0 as opposed to 2-0?  You’re going home after the game regardless.  At least you can leave the field saying: “Hey, we tried everything.  They were just better than us.”

Size Doesn’t Matter – It’s Just A Slow Game.

I used to think that the reason that I found soccer games difficult to watch (because of how slow they seemed to be playing) was because the field was massive and, without much lines or stationary cues to measure speed against, it just appeared to be slow moving.  Sort of like when you watch a plane in the sky: sure it is traveling at several hundred miles per hour, but against a solid blue sky, it looks like it is crawling peacefully across the sky.  Same principle.  However, that appears to be incorrect with soccer.

From what I found out, a soccer field is comparable in size to that of a rugby field — which is only slightly longer than a football field but quite a bit wider.  Ergo, I no loner know why the game is so slow paced, as rugby certainly is not.  Rugby does have more lines on the field and, I believe, more players, too, but not a substantial amount more — so I’m not sure why soccer feels so much slower….but it certainly does. It has to be that because the ball is kicked (as opposed to being controlled by the hands) that it makes it naturally more difficult and thus more prone to sloppiness.  Plus, there’s a lot of flopping and exaggerated injuries in soccer.  That does slow things down quite a bit.

Short Man’s Game?

On Colombia’s first goal, where the guy sailed it juuuuust over the goalie’s outstretched fingers but below the crossbar, I thought to myself: “How high is the crossbar on the goal?”  The people I was with said they didn’t know but guessed it was 9-10′ tall to which I was like: “Oh okay – yeah, that is a bit of a challenge, then.”  But it’s not.  Turns out, according to the Internet, that FIFA regulations state that the crossbar is only 8′ high.  8 FEET!!!! That blew my mind.  No wonder our goalie is, reportedly, one of the best in the world: hell, I can stretch to reach 8′ without leaving my toes.  Either the Uruguay goalie is a short guy or just doesn’t have much vertical lift, because I am pretty confident that I could have deflected that ball out of play.  Geez — I can dunk on a 9′ rim and almost touch a 10′ rim (I could in my prime), and I’m by no means a tall guy or exceedingly athletic.

Their goalie didn’t strike me as being abnormally small, by comparison of the other players, so this made me think that maybe soccer is geared more towards small guys?  For example, if you end up being being tall, you play basketball; if you end up being stocky and big, you play rugby; but if you’re 5’7″ and quick, then you play soccer.  That would make sense to me.  That’s the only reason why I can think of he missed that ball.  He was able to touch it but not enough to deflect it; you could not have been in a better position, either, but, man, to not be able to jump and reach the 8′ mark with outstretched fingers, they must be small guys playing.

Upon further review: Uruguay’s goalie is, reportedly, 6’3″!! I’m now further baffled.  I have no idea how he missed that deflection.  Even if he was out of position (it did appear, upon review, that he was closer to the shot than I originally remembered), the ball doesn’t exceed 9′ even at its highest point.  For a guy who is 6’3″, I don’t know how he doesn’t make that deflection.  Maybe these guys just can’t jump?

A 5’11” Ryan Henley could have blocked that shot.  I think that if I was to play soccer, that I could be a goalie.  If these guys are 6’3″ but can’t extend to 9′ then I can do something that they cannot, regardless of their 4″ height advantage.  I would also introduce the soccer world to the Mutombo Finger Wag.  We often joke that the rest of the world, culturally, is behind us by 20yrs, so the Mutombo Finger Wag is probably something that they would be really interested in and wanting to embrace.  Speaking of which, this is a great commercial:


I just like how happy Mutombo is and, thanks to a Jimmy Kimmel Live “Mean Tweet” segment, I now can’t hear Dikembe Mutombo without thinking that he sounds like the Cookie Monster, haha.

Anyway, I’m going to start wrapping this up as I have to get ready for my short week that starts tomorrow.  If I was to play soccer, I think that I could be a pretty good goalie.  However, I don’t think that the goalie gets to trash talk as much as the other players, and I am a prolific trash talker.  It is a big part of my game and so I would miss it too much if I had to stay in the goal the whole game.   It is unlikely that these claims will ever be tested out as I have no interest in playing soccer and, as I’m now over the 30-mark and have noted how a lot of friends that I know who have sustained bad injuries (ACLs, MCLs, etc.) have done so playing rec league soccer, I think that I’ll stick to the sports that I know and have a lower likelihood of injury.

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That will do it for Part II.  Probably tomorrow, I’ll get into Part III and get into the Suarez biting scandal as well as that one annoying pundit who claims that our interest in soccer is evidence that our culture and country is morally corrupted or something silly like that.  Stay tuned!

-Ryan.