Tagged: 2014
My Return – Pt II – Aldon Smith & Strange NFL Justice
When I got a series of text messages yesterday at work, I knew something was going on. Then I read that it was my brother and dear Seahawk friend, Andy, breaking the news to me of Aldon Smith’s 9-game suspension. I wasn’t surprised. Why should I be?
After Josh Gordon got a full-season suspension for smoking too much weed, and then Matt Prater got a 4-game suspension for, reportedly, having some beers at home while on vacation (per his attorney) — which violated his probation stemming from a DUI three years ago — I figured that Aldon’s suspension would be AT LEAST 8 games, but maybe even a full-season, as well. After all, the man did wrap his truck around a tree…with a BAC twice the legal limit….at 7am….on a Wednesday morning…. I consider 9 games a pretty lenient ruling (unless Goodell factored in the 5-games he voluntarily missed last year — 14-games total? Yeah, I could see that). I’ll get to my thoughts in Pt III about how his absence will play a role in our 2014 campaign BUT shift my focus to the strange brand of justice that the NFL is rolling out nowadays.
Not to say that because Aldon Smith didn’t hurt anyone (including himself…miraculously) that his DUI shouldn’t be treated as less severe of an incident, but when you consider that no one got hurt in his incident; and then you consider that Josh Gordon getting high (presumably on his couch watching TV?) didn’t hurt anyone; and Prater having some beers at his home while on vacation also didn’t hurt anyone….yet Ray Rice can knock his fiancee UNCONSCIOUS in an elevator and only get a 2-game suspension…..that is strange, right? RIGHT?? Oh, furthermore, Ray Rice’s was also the only incident that was documented on camera, too. It’s not even a he-said-she-said-type of thing, either; we all saw him drag her out of the elevator, presumably unconscious — or maybe doing that sort of tantrum that kids do where they go limp and force you to drag them around. Although, the KO is probably more likely.
Sure, I read that his record will get cleared if he behaves himself for the next few years while on probation, and so you could argue that punishing him for something that may not exist on his record could get tricky, BUT these latest rash of suspensions don’t make any sense to me. Even if there is no standing rule against knocking your fiancee out cold (which kind of surprises me that there wasn’t…), couldn’t that fall under the “personal conduct” policy? I feel as though anytime that you initiate a physical altercation — with anyone — and you knock them out cold, that you probably should get suspended for at least 4 games. I mean, if the rule book says that Prater warranted a 4-game suspension (even though they were initially trying for a SEASON-LONG suspension….seriously….) for consuming alcohol at home, shouldn’t they be able to say: “Yeah, let’s have the domestic violence incident be at least 4 games, too.”
It just doesn’t make any sense to me.
I’m not a big fan of Goodell, though. I soured on the guy after I found out that he makes $20M a year. $20 MILLION A YEAR. To do what? Talk about how he’d like to see the NFL expand to Europe (where it had been tried and failed all within my lifetime)? Or (poorly) engage in cover-ups and PR mishaps? Announce the first round picks at the NFL Draft, giving bear hugs to huge guys, and posing for photos? I could totally do that job. NAY, I could totally do that job better.
I don’t get it but a lot of my life, in hindsight, is made up of moments and things that I don’t get, so I’ll focus on elements that I can control, which is a great segue to Part III and how I will be preparing for the 2014 campaign and what my thoughts are as we inch ever-so-closer to kickoff.
My Thoughts: Vernon Davis Hold Out
With the latest report that VD is planning on holding out through mini-camp this week, there’s a lot of expected reaction from the Internet community — where some of the darkest voices in existence tend to hang out.
Personally, I am okay with him holding out because I understand what he is trying to do: it’s a business and he’s trying to make the most of this opportunity (playing in the NFL) while he can. More power to you because, he’s right, the moment that he’s not “valuable” anymore, he will be cut and that will be the end of that. He’ll likely get into the 49ers Hall of Fame, so we’ll see him at a half-time ceremony, but, with athletes, once they are gone, they are usually gone for good — in terms of the public consciousnesses. So I understand what he is trying to do and so I won’t blast him for it.
And, I think that he is starting to break-down, so I can sense the urgency on his end to get as much cash as he can right now. I think that in the past two seasons he has suffered 4-5 concussions and a groin injury, and, in the ultra-physical NFC West and being an over-the-middle player, I think that he is anticipating that the final 2yrs of his current contract are going to wear him down. The man is 30yrs old, after all.
By all accounts, he’s a great presence and great veteran to have in the locker room, and he also does a lot of great things in the community (from what I have seen on social media), and I don’t think he gets into trouble off the field — which is something that our roster has had some issues with in the recent past. So, that’s another reason why I could see us wanting to do what we can to keep him happy and on the field: he produces, he does his job (and at a very high level), and he doesn’t cause the organization any problems.
Furthermore, I don’t know how much more he is seeking but there are a lot of people (and some “fans”) that are blasting him because he doesn’t “deserve” to be paid like Jimmy Graham or Gronk, which I wholly disagree with. This is why I don’t play “fantasy” sports — people get way too caught up in statistics and then overvalue a player. Is Graham a great TE? I don’t think so. He’s a great WR…..who lines up as a TE. He’s not that great at blocking or pass protection. Meanwhile, VD can do it all. I think that he is the best all-around TE in the League.
And, while, sure, VD has missed some games the past couple of seasons due to injury, he’s much more durable and reliable than Gronk is; so I’d pay him more for that purpose. I would pick him over Gronk any day. I was listening to Dave Dameshek’s Football Program where they were discussing Gronk and comparing him to a fruit: the plum – because when he’s fresh, he is sweet and amazing…..but he’s only fresh for a brief amount of time. So, I can see why VD and his camp are wanting to get more value out of us because he is really valuable to us.
Ultimately, though, I think that this is just going to get him out of mini-camps and I’ll be surprised if he sits out into the season or if we cave and give him a new contract.
First of all, he’s got 2yrs left on his deal and I don’t think he would sit out and miss games because it lowers his value, I would think. I mean, from a PR point, it makes him look bad if he’s missing games because he wants a new contract with 2 full seasons left on his current one. Sure, maybe he sits out and our offense falls apart, so we can see how important he is, thus triggering the paycheck to get him back on the field. Maybe. Although, he picked a bad time to hold out because we upgraded our receivers and Kaepernick, for whatever reason (and often times that annoys me) doesn’t look for VD as much as Alex Smith did. Kaepernick is big on Crabtree and Boldin. Now, with Stevie Johnson, Patton, and other options at WR, theoretically, we could groom McDonald and another TE to be more blocking-first style of TE and then let Kaepernick throw to the WRs and make plays with his legs. We have options on offense, right now, which is not a luxury that we had in the past few years. So, I don’t think that VD has much leverage in holding out. We may struggle offensively but I think that we could still win games, whereas he loses money and League respect.
Secondly, I’d be surprised if we caved and renegotiated right now because he still has 2yrs left on his deal, and it would make for a really tough precedent that, certainly, others would duplicate when nearing the end of their deals. Coming fresh off of Kaepernick’s super team-friendly deal, I would be VERY surprised if the powers above decided to renew VD’s contract right now under the threat of holding out. I’d be very surprised.
What We Should/Could Do
Even though I think that VD is just going to take the summer off and then come back for the regular season (which is not something that I’m too upset about — our offense hasn’t changed, he’s a veteran who has been through it all before — so I’d rather him stay fresh for the regular season anyways), for the sake of argument, I’m going to operate under the thought that he is willing to hold out until he gets paid; even if that means not playing for the next 2 seasons.
I doubt that we’d be able to replicate all that VD does for us — especially in the blocking department — but I have some thoughts as to what we should/could do to prepare for a season without VD.
I’m not the first to suggest this but I do strongly advocate it — whether not VD holds out this season, actually; I think it would be worth the experiment. JON BALDWIN as a TE.
We swapped AJ Jenkins for him last year and he didn’t really do a whole lot for us — except cost a challenge and a time out during the Saints game, when he argued vehemently that his would-be TD catch was good (it wasn’t) and so Harbaugh challenged the call…. it was confirmed — but I think that we should give him a look as TE. Why not?
His size compares quite nicely to VD — 6’4″ 230 to VD’s 6’3″ 250 — as well as his hands and speed. From what I recall, it was Baldwin’s inability to run crisp routes or struggling to learn our routes that kept him out of games for most of last season (granted, he was a late acquisition, whereas now he has been with us for most of the year). However, by eliminating that route-focused running that WRs need to be able to do, he may be perfect as a short-yardage TE; the big target that either sits down in the defensive zone, or streaks straight down the seam. He may be really good at that.
The blocking part is what I’m not too sure about. McDonald struggled last year in blocking assignments, when VD was injured, and so I’m not sure how quickly this can be picked up. However, McDonald was also a rookie and so part of that may have been adjusting to the speed of the NFL from college — whereas Baldwin has been in the League for a few seasons now, I don’t think he would have that same struggle.
PLUS, if we plan for this now (in mid-June) he could, potentially, be up and running for the season. With the addition of Stevie Johnson, Lloyd (who I’m not sure will make the team), our draft picks, and, of course, Anquan Grown Man Boldin, Crabtree, and Patton… I think that it is slim that Baldwin makes the team as a WR. However, due to his size and speed, I think that he could be transformed into a TE. It’s worth a shot, at least.
*IF* it worked out and Jon Baldwin was able to develop the blocking skills, then he and Vance McDonald could make a pretty solid TE-tandem. They’re both about the same size, with similar skill sets, both 24, and so — IF it worked out — we could be setting ourselves up to have a dual-TE set in place for the next handful of years.
While it is highly unlikely that anyone in the organization reads this but I hope that we look into the potential of Jon Baldwin to step in at TE if VD does, indeed, decide to hold out into July/August or even into the start of the season. Those are my thoughts.
-Ryan.
Movie Thoughts : “Godzilla” (2014)
I just got back from seeing “Godzilla” earlier this evening and, first and foremost, I think that it was well done. Yes, I still brought my bourbon to the show, but it wasn’t a movie that needed alcohol to be enjoyable, I assure you. I was surprised that Bryan Cranston (who was somewhat heavily featured in the trailer) wasn’t as big of a role as I expected, the kid from Kick-Ass (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) did a pretty good job…even though I didn’t recognize him from his Kick-Ass days. I also thought that the girl (Elizabeth Olsen) looked like one of the Olsen Twins, and that ate me up throughout most of the movie; and, it turns out, that she is the younger sister of the Olsen Twins, so there ya go. The acting was solid and I thought that the story was really good — much better than the last rendition of Godzilla (1998) that was in NYC….which also irritates me because Godzilla is supposed to stay in the Pacific; how would a giant monster like Godzilla get all the way to the N. Atlantic???? It makes no sense — and I liked the use of visual effects that you come to expect with movies nowadays.
The only thing that I didn’t like about it is one of my biggest pet peeves, when it comes to this genre of film: military engagement. Come. On.
In EVERY monster or alien movie, the first response is always to try and shoot it. Usually with machine guns. Which, are you sitting down?, NEVER works. And why should it?? The monster is the size of a building….how is an assault rifle going to inflict any notable damage to it?? It is such a simple-minded tactic that it always bothers me. It’s like Denzel says:
The only thing that the initial (futile) strike ever accomplishes, in these movies, is it angers and annoys me — probably more so than the monster that is destroying the city. That, or it gives confidence to the invading force of just how silly and ill-equipped we are for the battle. It is one of my biggest pet peeves in the genre and I wish that, for once, they would make a monster/alien movie where someone tosses out the unlikelihood of that first strike being successful.
Inevitably, the answer then becomes “use bigger weapons” and, sometimes it works, but usually it doesn’t. The military response is remarkably predictable and you know it is going to fail from the get-go, which is what makes it annoying because, if this was a real event, I imagine (and hope) that they’d be more creative and intelligent with their reaction to the invading force.
For example, in Independence Day, after the initial strikes against the aliens failed (up to and including nuclear warheads) to penetrate their force fields, THEN they figure out: “Oh hey, what if we turn the tables and use their tactics — the commandeering of our satellites — against them by giving the mother ship a virus that then is sent to the ships destroying us down here?” And, ya know what? It worked — we were able to disarm and destroy the mother ship, and level the playing-field on the ground. It was the confidence-boosting game-changer that then allowed us to do what we probably should have thought about way earlier in the movie: their “death beam” thing is the ONLY unprotected part of their entire ship, and, thus, the ship’s really only vulnerability. We should have attacked that point much earlier in the movie (or tried it) but, no, the military-minds were more adherent to the low-percentage-success-rate of trying to shoot it down. C’mon…it came here from LIGHT YEARS away!! Why would you expect our technology to be able to match theirs one-on-one? It makes no sense.
Anyway, to conclude, I don’t want to say too much about Godzilla, out of fear of spoiling some plot detail, BUT it was a good movie. I didn’t pay $15 to see it at a real theater*, but for my money, it was a really good movie that I enjoyed and that I recommend.
*I am not really a picky viewer, in terms of IMAX or communal couches (a la Cinetopia) and other such frills like that; just so long as it is a clean theater with comfortable seats, I can make do with a big screen and a better sound system than my place can provide. Therefore, I am partial to the St. Johns Cinema which is close to my house. It has the big screen, the better sound system, is conveniently by my place, AND has a $5 matinee and $7 regular admission. Why pay double elsewhere for the same movie? That just makes good sense, to me.
-Ryan.
My Thoughts: Exercising Aldon’s Option
After reading that the 49ers exercised Aldon’s option, I think that — from a business perspective — we did the right thing for our team.
This Game is a Business
Reading the message boards and comments from readers, I get why a lot of people don’t like this move — both 49ers fans and others — because it appears as though we are overlooking or disregarding his off-the-field antics simply because he is a talented athlete; which is certainly true, but that’s not the only factor in place. I don’t pretend that it is, either. The bottom line is that this game is a business. Just like other businesses, if you don’t make enough money to stay open, your business closes…. or gets bought by someone else and moved to another city. So, from a business perspective, we made the right decision.
By exercising his option, we have him for 2015-16 for a bargain rate, based on the caliber of his play, at $9M. Of which, barring serious injury (which he doesn’t have a serious injury history to be concerned about), none of it is guaranteed to him. Also, we have the ability to drop the option during the season, as well as have the ability to trade him, if desirable. In short: by exercising his option, it gives us a lot of options to work with. And, from a business perspective, that is the best position to be in.
Had we not exercised his option, we forfeit all of that control: he could leave at the end of next season; we would likely have to pay him at a much higher free-agent price to keep him; or we would have to use the franchise tag on him and spend $12+ M in that case. So, at the very least, we are getting him for $3M cheaper than we would with the franchise tag (that, now, can be used elsewhere if necessary), and possibly $10 M cheaper than if he hit the free-agent market. In a game where salary cap casualties have the ability to tear teams apart, being able to keep a talented guy for well-below his market value is never a bad decision.
Punishment.
I do think that he should be, and will be, punished in 2014 — by either us or the League, but, most likely, coming from us, since I reckon that the League will hold off on their punishment until the legal process runs its course; which may not happen anytime soon. That said, I think that we should step-in and suspend him for the first 6 or so games of the season. He did, essentially, self-suspend last season for a few weeks for the DUI penance, and I think that should be taken into account — it appeared to have been by the League, since they didn’t further sanction him (as I thought that they certainly would).
Despite the media and the fire-storm around the LAX “incident”, I don’t think that is a terrible offense. It was stupid on his part but not a terrible offense worthy of the attention and fire-storm surrounding it. I’m guessing that, since his charges have, reportedly, been decreased to a misdemeanor level (instead of felony), that the authorities in Los Angeles also share in my view of what happened. Had it been a serious offense, he would be facing felony charges, no doubt.
Now, I don’t know Aldon Smith at all, and I certainly wasn’t present at the time of this “incident” – but from what I have gathered from the media reports is that he was selected for “random search” — which, by the way, I didn’t think that it still happened* — to which, reportedly, he made a comment about a bomb, then resisted arrest/cooperation when security personnel arrived.
*I remember flying in the wake of 9/11 and the “randomly selected” practice. Coincidentally, I’m sure, everyone who got selected was tan, myself included, except for the one pale person so that it didn’t look completely rigged.
The way that I see this playing out is that: Aldon gets selected for further search; he probably is surprised and irritated because that doesn’t happen anymore; probably tries to play the “do you know who I am?” card — if I was young and had fame and money, I’d play it……. often…..; and probably said something like “I’m Aldon Smith! It’s not like I have a bomb or something” …. which is a word that you never want to say, especially, in airports, and ESPECIALLY a major airport like LAX. I could then see him trying to take it back, but it’s way too late; once that gets put out there, you’re getting a visit from security, for sure.
I think that, had he played it cool, and just cooperated when security came, apologized for saying “bomb” in the airport, that he probably is detained but eventually released. But, I reckon, he probably tried to resist it escalating and, by resisting, it escalated quite quickly.
Did it play out like that? I have no idea. I wasn’t there, but neither were most of the people commenting about it.
So, does he need to be punished for it? Definitely. It was a bone-headed move. But I disagree with the masses who are making it sound like he committed a serious crime. If you want to go after 49er for a serious crime, go after Culliver — from the sounds of it, he was involved in a hit-and-run where he then threatened the witness. Talk about going from bad to worse…..
I’m not giving up on Aldon Smith — not because he’s a rare talent and thus should get special privileges but, rather, because he has made, really, just one serious mistake (the DUI last Fall) and had, what I’d call, two mishaps: the weapons charges and the latest LAX “incident”.
The weapons are illegal in California, where he was cited for having them. However, they were legal in Arizona where he bought them. Should he have known better? I don’t know. Really, I don’t. I’m not a gun guy; I was unaware that some guns are legal in some states and illegal in others. I’ve never fired a gun or really even seen them — so that was news to me. It could have been news to him, too. I’m guessing so since he, reportedly, used them to break up the party (also dumb). If he knew that they were illegal to possess, I imagine that he probably wouldn’t have used them. That’s how my mind works, at least. If he uses an air horn (or, my preferred method, Semisonic’s “Closing Time”), then there’s probably a good chance that we still, to this day, don’t know that he has illegal guns in his possession.
So, a punishment is warranted and it will come, but I don’t think it should be as severe as the media and the commentators are demanding. I think that Aldon Smith could end up being one of the best players at his position of all time. As I said, he has made some mistakes in his short time in the League, but I think that he will grow from them. He’s a young guy. Young guys do stupid stuff sometimes. I say suspend him for the DUI + the LAX thing 6 games and we can call it good….. unless he gets into more trouble. However, I think that he realizes that he’s on a very short lease right now and that the organization holds all of the chips. If he is the guy that I believe he can be, then I think that he will stay on the right path.
Those are my thoughts.
-Ryan.
The Peanut Gallery 